First weekend of October 2019

As much as we’ve got a record setting tentpole this weekend, in the year to year comparison we’ll be down again because last year in addition to the wildly successful Venom, we also had A Star is Born at $44 million. So when you look at the difference between this year and last, the number will probably be pretty close to that number on Star is Born. So, with the accuracy of the progress forecasts for Sam Darnold’s spleen, here’s my best take on the weekend box-office.

#1 *Joker *- WB did some solid work here, and even though this film is more of a character study where the creepiness level of the title character lived somewhere between Justin Bieber’s Frankencats and a 50 year old man traveling alone on a Disney Cruise ship, they made it feel Super Hero adjacent. They had a great night last night and the numbers today look a lot like It 2 a couple of weeks ago, so figure it ends up in the same low 90’s range. If it gathers some steam, and we can get through the weekend without anyone being a knucklehead, 100 isn’t out of the question.

The holdovers all look pretty normal right now, with Abominable looking a little better than the usual 50% drop.

Lucy in the Sky - Went very limited in 37 theaters and other than the Arclight Hollywood where there’s a Q and A, everything else is very soft. I’m not sure about other Q and A’s, but this should be under $100k for the weekend.

My People My Country - A Chinese Language film opening in about 70 theaters, they’re doing some really solid business. Looks like a solid 7.2 million Yuan ($1million).

Pain and Glory - Pedro Almodovar’s autobiographical film opened exclusive in NY/LA in 4 theaters and looks very strong. Figure a PSA of about $40-$50k.