Second weekend of October 2019

We might actually be up from last year this weekend, thanks to multiple viewings of Joker (which is kinda scary) causing it to hold up, and some decent new film. If we’re up, it’s only going to be a little though. So, with the expected stability and accuracy of Clayton Kershaw pitching a cantaloupe, here’s my best take on the weekend box-office.

#1 Joker - Looks great for such a big film in the 2nd weekend, if you back out the Thursday shows from last week, we could be looking at a true FSS drop of less than 40%. Figure high 40’s.

#2* The Addams Family* - A very nice opening for United Artists Releasing/MGM, it looks like this reboot of the classic TV show will end up In higher gross echelon of the Family genre (non Disney/Dreamworks/Illumination division). Figure they’re good for 30 with a shot at a little more depending on the kiddie bounce tomorrow.

#3* Gemini Man *- ‘Excuse me sir, didn’t you used to be Will Smith?’ Yep, it’s amazing how iffy creative choices by big movie stars can hurt their box-office appeal, and the way this is opening it makes you appreciate what Disney accomplished commercially on Aladdin. Although this film had a pretty strong campaign, the box-office potential was so tied to Will Smith, when the critics weighed in with unfavorable reviews the casual fans (who have been burned in the past) just pass. They’ve still got a decent shot of getting to 20, but more than likely very high teens.

Jexi - Unfortunately the theatrical sector is all about movie stars (unless you’re in the Horror Genre), and although this has a very talented and funny cast, they don’t have any theatrical following yet. Figure about $2 million for the weekend.

Parasite - Opened Exclusive in the IFC New York, plus the Arclight Hollywood and the Landmark WLA. Looks sensational so far, figure a PSA well into 6 figures.