Third weekend of September 2019
The wasn’t much going on last year on the same weekend (House with a Clock in its Walls), so with 3 decent fall releases this year, we’ll probably have a decent surplus in the year to year comparison. So, with the accuracy and stability normally associated with NRG’s Male 12-16 tracking sample, here’s my best take on the weekend box-office.
#1 Downton Abbey - Focus did a really good job of turning this into a Sex in the City for the 1%rs and those who aspire to be a 1%r, the numbers today look every bit as good as we heard the pre-sales were. Although this doesn’t quite have the group attendance factor that SATC had, they certainly exposed a theatrical fanship for this IP. But similar to every IP like this, we’re never sure how deep the fanbase goes and we’ll have to see if there’s a big drop-off tomorrow and Sunday. Because of that, I’ll give this a very wide range and say it’s in the low 20’s if it crashes hard tomorrow and low 30’s if it behaves more like a normal adult skewing movie. However, I don’t see a path at this point where it doesn’t win the weekend.
#2 Ad Astra - Looks very good right now but they’ve got a big IMAX footprint for this release, and IMAX theaters tend to get a lot of presales, so I’m not sure the hot numbers right now will hold up. Figure this is very high teens with a good shot of getting to 20. Normally I’d say this was already at 20 but the exits look only good, and not to the level of the critical acclaim (again), so I’m not sure about playability this weekend.
#3 Rambo: Last Blood - Once again Lions Gate has a sequel no one asked for and (just like Angel has Fallen) is getting it to do more business than it probably deserves. This series finale (promise?) where Rambo’s Daughter is kidnapped from her nursing home is good not great right now, but maybe it will get better once those 12-16 year old boys show up and give the gross a big lift. Or not. Looks about $17 million to me.
#4 *Hustlers *- Looks just slightly better than the standard 2nd weekend drop right now. Figure its down 45% from last weekend for about $17 million, with an outside shot at moving into 3rd place.