Second weekend of September 2019
Even though we had a pretty good slate of Fall films this week last year (Predator, Simple Favor, White Boy Rick) thanks to STX (yes, you read that right, you are not hallucinating), we’ll probably have another week that’s up from last year. It won’t be up by much, but it should be up. So, with the accuracy and dependability of airplane wifi (that I’m currently struggling with), here’s my best take on the weekend box-office.
#1 It Chapter 2 - Since I still have yet to talk to anyone who has liked this film, I was expecting a bigger drop than I’m seeing now. This actually looks (drop wise) very similar to the first film, which dropped 51% in it’s 2nd weekend. Let’s figure it’s just a little worse than that and drops 55% for a weekend around 40.
#2 Hustlers - Looks like something pretty special is happening here, STX is makin it rain. Made on a pretty low budget with a shockingly short 29 day shooting schedule, this critical fave looks really strong right now. Obviously since this is a true story based in Manhattan, the NYC area theaters are way out front of the pack, but it’s also really good in the stripper friendly areas like Texas, Atlanta and LA. It’s really going to have to be a presales all star not to cross 30 for the weekend, but since it’s an older female skew, sub 30 is unlikely but not off the table. I’ll say it ends up in the low 30s, which for a high teens budgeted film, is pretty amazing. Now this is one half of one day so far, and we’ve still got the rest of the weekend with all the holdover possibilities in both directions; but when you consider that STX is making this happen with their media model that spends a fraction of what is standard in the industry, if you have a participation position in this film, there’s a good chance there’s rain in your future.
#3 The Goldfinch - Based on the epic Pulitzer Prize Winning Novel (which apparently holds some sort of record as the Pulitzer Prize Winner that most people don’t finish), this all star adaptation just doesn’t look very good right now. Figure it’s good for $4 million or so for the weekend.