Top Gun: Maverick
Action & Adventure Paramount PG-13 2h 11m Released May 27, 2022 Discussed 2022–2024
Opening weekend
$126.7M
4,735 theaters
Per-theater average
$26,760
opening weekend
Domestic total
$718.7M
5.7× its opening
Worldwide total
$1.45B
49% domestic
Production budget
$177.0M
8.2× worldwide
RT critics
96%
RT audience
99%
+3 vs critics
Metacritic
78
Where it turns up
Friday, May 27, 2022 Top Gun Memorial Day 2022
On the chart Top Gun: Maverick (opening): $126.7M 3-day, a Memorial Day record
Expected 'Not quite to the place where I'd say this is going to break Pirates 3's Memorial Day record ($114 million)... but the 3 day should have no problem getting past $100 million' Actual: $126.7M, broke the record he wouldn't quite call
In the note
One of the things I had the most fun with in the 3 years (!) leading up to this release was answering the question, what do you think Top Gun Maverick will do? The answer shocked people when I pointed out that all it would take was a $65 million 3 day to make it TC’s biggest opening weekend ever.
Friday, June 3, 2022 First weekend of June 2022
On the chart Top Gun: Maverick (wk 2): $90.0M, -29%
Expected 'It looks like a weekend of about $70 million... that 70 might be low' Actual: $90.0M, the hedge was the headline
In the note
But they don't mention that they don't know if they're there because of Covid as opposed to the patients with Covid, here are some thoughts about the weekend box-office. Top Gun Maverick - Holy shit is it good today…again.
Friday, July 1, 2022 July 4th weekend 2022
On the chart Top Gun: Maverick (wk 6): $25.9M, -13%
Expected Drop 'maybe as little as 10%... a 3 day in the mid (and maybe high) 20's' Actual: $25.9M, -13%
In the note
We’re seeing another great weekend this weekend (and a Marvel Monster is on deck for next weekend) and it looks like we’re in the middle of a marketplace aberration, where we’re getting consumers who weren’t moviegoers before the shutdown, but after 2 years of streaming crap and being cooped up at home, they wanna go out. Of course if you get those consumers who haven’t been to a movie in a while for films like Top Gun Maverick, and then the movie over delivers, you have a good chance of getting them back.
Friday, July 8, 2022 Second weekend of July 2022
On the chart Top Gun: Maverick (wk 7): $15.5M, -40%
Expected 'Down maybe 45% or so this weekend for a gross around $14 or $15 million' Actual: $15.5M, -40%
In the note
Either way, just like everything else in this sector, marketing did their job and they handed the baton to production, so the film is now in charge. Minions: The Rise of Gru - It’s off a little more than usual, possibly a ‘what goes up, must come down situation’, but even though it looks like it’s gonna be off about 60% from last weekend, it’s still going to be a strong second weekend in the low 40s. Top Gun Maverick - Sooner or later this would run into a weekend where it would have a ‘mortal’ drop from the weekend before.
Friday, August 26, 2022 Fourth weekend of August 2022
On the chart Top Gun: Maverick (wk 14): $4.7M, -20%
Friday, September 2, 2022 Labor Day weekend 2022
On the chart Top Gun: Maverick (wk 15): $6.0M, +27%; #1 in week fifteen
Expected 'Could plausibly win the weekend…..in week 15!' Actual: Won the weekend, up 27%, in week fifteen
In the note
However, depending on what happens tomorrow, Top Gun Maverick could plausibly win the weekend…..in week 15! Other than that, the holdovers look pretty good today and we have a day and date movie Honk for Jesus Save your Soul that probably won’t crack $1 million on 1800 screens; so it's just going day and date with Peacock to say it's 'in Theaters' on Peacock, rather than going in theaters for any sort of positive gross outcome.
Friday, December 30, 2022 New Year's weekend 2022
In the note
Top Gun Maverick seemed to set records for Paramount Max, did all that box office cache affect the viewership of Glass Onion? And if Glass Onion had a wider and longer run in theaters, would that have made a difference, and made it even better? So it’s an evolving world for everyone. In the past one of the debates at Christmas was ‘do we go on Christmas Day when everything does more business, or are we missing those good box office days’? The way it looks to me, unless you have a tentpole or a family film, those days aren’t that good.
Friday, February 24, 2023 Fourth weekend of February 2023
In the note
The Theatrical sector continues to get back to normal; and if you didn’t hear it last weekend, not only was the box office up substantially from President’s weekend last year (+55%), but it was up from President’s weekend 2019 (+15%). And on a YTD basis, we’re up an astounding 45% from 2022 so far. This weekend should double 2022’s last weekend in February as well, but it probably will fall about 20% short of what 2019 did. So, it’s clearly a step forward and the steady cadence of releases should slowly build this back up to where we were pre shutdown. And once again, it’s the movies stupid. The next two years or so in the business are going to be crucial to our survival. And since next week voting opens for the Oscars, and a lot of you are Academy Members, I’d like to bring up some points that need to be talked about; and as usual I’m going to kick a couple of sacred cows and point out things that feel awkward right now, but will help the business (kinda like asking where the profit was in taking movies straight to a platform 2 years ago…). I’m not campaigning here, just putting out some ideas that could help this sector long term, think of this as a suggestion for activism through voting. Here’s the big idea, if we don’t course correct the way we vote for Oscars, the show is headed to Hulu. Instead of voting the way we’ve been doing lately, voting for friends' films (personally guilty) or voting for your company's film, consider votes that will be good for the business and good for the show (and of course to a deserving film/actor). Let’s start with Best Picture. Just in case you forgot, here are the last 10 Best Picture Winners: Coda, Nomadland, Parasite, Green Book, The Shape of Water, Moonlight, Spotlight, Birdman, 12 Years a Slave, Argo. Yeah, you can see how since Argo, it’s been movies that the consumers that go 4 or 5 times a year, and they are the core to our business, never saw. No wonder no one watches the show anymore, and as usual, Ben Affleck ruins everything. And here’s where my first inconvenient point comes in, all these movies play better at home on TV than on the big screen, and that’s where most of you are watching them. 12 Years a Slave beat Gravity, Spotlight beat The Revenant (and The Martian and Mad Max), Moonlight beat La La Land and Arrival and so on. It started with Z Channel in the late 70’s, then it was VHS tapes, then DVD’s and now the app. They tried to make it convenient for us, but unfortunately we’ve lost sight of how movies play differently on the big screen vs your flatscreen. So not only are we voting for films that play better on the small screen, we’re kinda giving the middle finger to the average moviegoing consumer, who isn’t really attracted to art house films we keep giving awards to. So, again, we wonder why the ratings keep leaking year after year. So, my first ask is when you vote for something as important as Best Picture, consider how much different films are when seen in a theater. As a business (and I’m talking about the entertainment business as a whole) the media beats us up all the time about being out of step with the normal American consumer (especially in the middle of the country). Imagine if we responded with ‘oh yeah? We’re not out of touch elitists, hold my Bellini (light on the peach juice and exactly 2 1/2 mini ice cubes, otherwise I’ll make you do it again)', and we give the Best Picture Oscar to Top Gun Maverick. I know most of you will push back on that idea because of that whole pesky ’success’ issue that seems to block your consideration, but a vote for a film people saw might reset how people view the Oscars (and they might actually view the Oscars in the future). And if you recalibrate why you would vote for a film, is there a better theatrical experience in this group of nominees? In addition, there is one aspect that we should also consider; to paraphrase Spielberg ‘it saved our ass’. But not only did it reset the box office, can’t we give some credit to the film for waiting 2 years to do it (and didn’t take ’the bag’ even though they were offered), to save our ass? Why aren’t we thinking more seriously about a film that had a higher Rotten Tomatoes score than all the other nominees? Do we really take something out of consideration because it had a higher gross than all the other nominees? I know some of you will have to put something you either worked on or are adjacent to 1st on your ballot, but as a nod to the future of the industry it might be a good idea to put Top Gun Maverick 2nd.
Friday, March 3, 2023 First weekend of March 2023
In the note
As far as my thoughts about Top Gun Maverick needing to win Best Picture this year, a couple of you correctly pointed out ‘great idea, and it deserves it, but it won’t win because it’s not cool to vote for it’. Exactly, cool seems to matter more now.
Friday, March 10, 2023 Oscar weekend 2023
In the note
I just hope that if chaos does happen and if something like Top Gun Maverick wins Best Picture, we don’t have the typical lazy responses accusing the Academy of racism (in this case, against Asians).
Friday, March 17, 2023 Third weekend of March 2023
In the note
And even though Top Gun Maverick didn’t win Best Picture, at least the film won that outgrossed 8 of the last 10 Best Picture winners (Green Book and Argo grossed more domestically).
Friday, June 30, 2023 Final weekend of June 2023
In the note
Last year, both Top Gun Maverick and Elvis went to Cannes, and thought a rousing Cannes reception would polish the shine of the film.
Friday, July 21, 2023 Barbenheimer weekend 2023
In the note
This happened on a much smaller scale last year on Top Gun Maverick, but it brought in consumers outside the frequent moviegoers to the theater because of the ‘merica’ angle.
Friday, July 28, 2023 Fourth weekend of July 2023
In the note
Last year the crazy strong holdover of Top Gun Maverick drove the business for months, and looking at this weekend we might have two Top Gun Mavericks. Not gonna ramble on today, my fingers are still sore from the extensive drivel I tossed over the fence at you last week.
Friday, September 1, 2023 Labor Day weekend 2023
In the note
So this weekend we have a nice size sequel to drive the box-office and we should almost double 2022’s Labor Day weekend (no new releases, just re-issues of Spider-Man No Way Home, Jaws and Top Gun Maverick; but it was also National Cinema Day and more on that below); and should probably just eek out a win over 2019’s Labor Day gross (no new major releases, just a couple of Indies that grossed very little).
Friday, March 1, 2024 First weekend of March 2024
In the note
But as a good part of our industry scratches its head when it moves and says ‘is that really necessary?’, when it eventually arrives at its destination the clouds part and the angels sing (and with Top Gun Maverick the angels sang a long long time), and the folks who didn’t get it…...get it.
Friday, July 19, 2024 Third weekend of July 2024
In the note