July 4th weekend 2022
The box-office continues to be on a tear, and as the kids say today, going to a movie in a theater is fire (or is it lit?). We’re seeing another great weekend this weekend (and a Marvel Monster is on deck for next weekend) and it looks like we’re in the middle of a marketplace aberration, where we’re getting consumers who weren’t moviegoers before the shutdown, but after 2 years of streaming crap and being cooped up at home, they wanna go out.
Of course if you get those consumers who haven’t been to a movie in a while for films like Top Gun Maverick, and then the movie over delivers, you have a good chance of getting them back. And just like we’re seeing in other sectors of the economy, like Air Travel, they are making up for lost time. What’s interesting is how we’re seeing these big brands that are the movie equivalent of ‘comfort food’ go crazy at the box-office; the more they look like something that’s fun and escapist (and big screen worthy), the better they’re doing at the box office. That’s actually consistent with what we’ve seen over the life of the movie industry, from the Great Depression to the Great Recession, a fun time at the movies is a cheap escape when the world is challenging us. We even saw hints of this during the spring with escapist fare like Uncharted, Dog and The Lost City breaking through, but they didn’t have the brand power these films have. If the numbers here hold up, we’ll beat the same weekend in 2019 by a considerable margin, and the total box office will be in line with what we saw in the best years for this weekend. Of course, the benefit of this will be the press picking up how great these movies are doing it, and it will be reported in the mainstream press over and over again through Tuesday, adding long term value to the IP’s as they progress through the various distribution tiers. On the flip side, the viewership numbers for the streamers (or whatever they say are their ‘numbers’) only get picked up by the trade press for the most part, and Netflix is getting more press by being roasted on Twitter for green-lighting another $200 million movie that will vanish 5 minutes after it hits the platform.
Anyway, with the accuracy and value of a Pac 12 TV contract, here are some thoughts on the weekend box-office.
Minions: The Rise of Gru - End, Scene. Yep, this is the last of the films that were originally scheduled to come out when the Pandemic hit (in this case 4th of July 2020), but were deemed good enough to hold back until the business was back to normal. And this one is a monster today, so the folks at Uni were right not to let this buffer till you quit watching on Peacock. As an example of how the marketplace is robust right now and we’re getting consumers who really need an excuse to get out of the house, this is the 5th film of the series and it’s an origin story, which usually equals doom. But it’s going to end up right there near the best grossing film of the series (Minions at $116 million), and might even beat it. That just doesn’t happen, and it’s not like this is the Citizen Kane of Minions movies so outlier quality or a groundbreaking marketing campaign is driving this, it’s ……fine. So clearly this is a hot marketplace and they hit a sweet spot. Unless something weird happens over the weekend this should crack $100 million in 3 days and about $120 million in 4 days. But there’s a decent chance of rain in the midwest and the northeast over the weekend and that should push this higher. The 4th is also a day that could go either way on a film like this, if it’s nice coast to coast it won’t be good for this genre, but if we get rain, it’s like printing money.
Top Gun Maverick - Paramount spent some decent chase money this week to push the ‘Top Gun on 4th of July’ aspect and it looks like it’s working. Right now it’s trending towards a teeny tiny drop from last Friday, maybe as little as 10%. So if that holds up, and since Sunday is a very good day with the Monday holiday, we should see another outlier holdover this weekend. So figure a 3 day in the mid (and maybe high) 20’s, with a 4 day just below or at 30.
Elvis - This was neck and neck with Top Gun all week, and it’s holding pretty good today. Of course just like everything in week 2, it’s missing the replication of the preview gross, so it starts the week 10% in the hole. But it looks like it will be down about 40% for a 3 day in the high teens, and a 4 day at or a little above 20.
Jurassic World Dominion - Looks pretty normal for a film in this genre, down 45% for a 3 day in the mid teens, and a 4 day in the high teens.
The Black Phone - Looks slightly better than a horror film in it’s second weekend, looks low teens in 3, mid teens in 4.
Mr. Malcolm’s List - The upscale art market has been all over the place, and like I said last week the LA infrastructure isn’t helping. But the grosses here are really weird. They’re low, but they aren’t doing great in the usual Art/Upscale markets like NY, LA and SF. Salt Lake City (yes you read that right) and Central Florida are at the top of the grosses. And it’s not that they are great, it’s that the coasts are low, and for a Jane Austin-esque film, those markets should be fire. Right now it looks like a 3 day of about 800k with a chance of the 4 day getting to $1 million.