Second weekend of July 2022
This weekend brings the last of the $100 million plus openings for this summer, so we’re going to have a total box office that’s not only going to soar above $200 million over the weekend, but it’s probably going to be a record for this weekend. This time of year has produced a lot of weekends just above $200 million, usually driven by the Illumination titles, but this year just Thor and Gru should get it almost to $200 on their own; with Top Gun, Jurassic, Black Phone, Elvis and Lightyear being the gravy that gets it to the low/mid 200’s. Of course, once we have some just okay weekends coming up, the press will be all over it saying ’theatrical is over’; and it’s not, it’s just the movies (the same way it’s been since the Silent Era).
Anyway, with the expected accuracy of a WWE employee exit interview, here are some thoughts on the weekend box office.
Thor: Love and Thunder - The Marvel train (Disney Edition) keeps rolling, and the numbers today are consistent with the preview numbers last night. How funny is it that this is such a successful run of films, that a $71 million opening on Eternals last year was considered shit? $71 million, and it’s shit, that’s crazy. Anyway, now that they’re back full time from their ($71 million opening) arty period, this looks great. Right now it looks like a weekend around $150 million, but playability will push it one way or another, figure between $140 million and $160 million. On the positive side, it’s really funny and the ‘comfort food’ aspect of moviegoing has been very productive lately. On the down side, the exits are a little low, so it might be a little front loaded. Either way, just like everything else in this sector, marketing did their job and they handed the baton to production, so the film is now in charge.
Minions: The Rise of Gru - It’s off a little more than usual, possibly a ‘what goes up, must come down situation’, but even though it looks like it’s gonna be off about 60% from last weekend, it’s still going to be a strong second weekend in the low 40s.
Top Gun Maverick - Sooner or later this would run into a weekend where it would have a ‘mortal’ drop from the weekend before. It’s funny though, even though Thor took all the big format theaters away that they got back the last couple of weeks, it’s still holding in pretty good. It’s going to be down maybe 45% or so this weekend for a gross around $14 or $15 million, but mid week next week is where it’s going to get exciting again for them. Sometime on Tuesday or Wednesday they’ll pass $600 million and then shortly thereafter pass the first run of Titanic ($600.6 million) to become Paramount’s biggest domestic release ever. Titanic’s official total gross of $659.3 includes a successful re-issue, but the way this film plays, it will probably pass that number too.