Labor Day weekend 2023
The history of Labor Day weekend at the box-office has been pretty iffy over time, mostly because School Calendars lined up so most schools (both K-12 and Colleges) started classes the day after Labor Day. So not only did that back to school social clutter force Labor Day weekend into an undesirable place to launch a film, the two weeks after Labor Day was a wasteland, and over time became to two lowest grossing weekends of the year. But because the release calendar kept leaving distributors fewer options to find a ‘clear’ weekend to release a film (and the school calendars had shifted to a schedule where most kids were back in school by Labor Day), films like It came along to show there were no bad weekends anymore. But for some reason, Labor Day kept getting ignored until Disney released Shang-Chi there to strong grosses. So this weekend we have a nice size sequel to drive the box-office and we should almost double 2022’s Labor Day weekend (no new releases, just re-issues of* Spider-Man No Way Home*, Jaws and Top Gun Maverick; but it was also National Cinema Day and more on that below); and should probably just eek out a win over 2019’s Labor Day gross (no new major releases, just a couple of Indies that grossed very little). So we’re still rolling along, and now that Taylor Swift is on the way to really supercharge the box office this fall, plus we had a couple of release schedule changes that should be good both for the films and the business, the Fall don’t look so bad anymore.
So I’ve been seeing the usual recycled headlines lately about how BarbenHeimer ’saved the business’ and ‘brought moviegoers back’….yawn. About this time last year the headlines told us that Top Gun Maverick ’saved the business’ and ‘brought moviegoers back’, and in 2019 Avengers: Endgame ’saved the business’ and ‘brought moviegoers back’. So, you’re telling me that every year there’s a movie that connects with audiences and it’s…..unusual? And I guess all those other films never really tried to connect the same way. Sure.
But since we look at recycled ideas all the time, let me recycle one of my own ideas. Last weekend was National Cinema Day and although it was….fine…gross wise and might have brought a few more people in that normally don’t go, we have to consider who they were, and if this is a good idea. A year ago in this same email, I pointed out that back in the early 80’s we used to have $1 days on Tuesdays, and this is what I wrote:
*The Managers of the theaters would tell me that those $1 days would bring out a different type of consumer. Normally in your average multiplex (back then it was usually 4 - 6 screens), on a Tuesday you wouldn’t need to put an employee on the door to a theater to make sure everyone coming in bought tickets to that film (to keep people from buying a ticket to one movie and then seeing another one or two). You would usually only do it for R movies on the weekends to keep kids out of a movie if they didn’t have a parent with them. But on $1 days something different happened. The promotion turned out to be wildly popular in the first couple of months, and every show sold out all day. But from the beginning it was an operational disaster because from the 2nd show of the day on, there were about 30% more people than seats for each show, even though the box office had only sold the right amount of tickets for that show. So the consumer they attracted was given an inch and took a yard, because it was clear the consumers who showed up felt like it was an all you can eat buffet and could see as many movies as they wanted….. for $1. So it will be interesting to see what kind of customer shows up tomorrow. *
In case you missed it, there were dozens and dozens of ‘incidents’ at theaters last Sunday, including one right here in LA at the AMC Del Amo, where 4 different cities’ police departments were summoned to quell the disturbance. Considering what went down last Sunday, and how the business this idea generated wasn’t that great, this might be an idea that needs to go away. Theaters are fighting enough headwinds these days without turning one day a year into The Purge. I’m sure the concession sales were good, because there were more people coming in, but too many of those concessions were purchased so they could throw it at someone else.
Anyway, with the accuracy normally associated with a Post Malone Skin Cancer screening, here are some thoughts on the weekend box office.
Equalizer 3 - Nice to see movie stars being movie stars at the box-office, and I was a little concerned about this film because there’s a TV version of the IP. But Denzel is still Denzel and this looks very good right now. But Equalizer and Equalizer 2 ended up in the mid 30’s, with the only difference being that Equalizer 2 opened in July and Equalizer opened in late September. This looks right in line with both of them, figure it’s low/mid 30’s in 3 and a shot at 40 in 4.
BarbenHeimer - Since we keep talking about these movies together, I might as well do it here. They’re both down about the same today (again), and the interesting aspect of this weekend is Sunday. Usually we get a lift on Sunday this weekend because of the Holiday on Monday, but this year we’ll have to deal with the larger grosses from National Teen Fight Club Cinema Day last Sunday, so where usually the Sunday to Sunday drop is very slight, this year it will be way down. Because of the Sunday issue, figure it’s down 40% on both for the 3 day. That would put Barbie at around 9 in 3 and 11 in 4, and Oppenheimer at about 5 in 3 and 6 in 4.
Gran Turismo Based on a True Story - Even though a film about racing where cars go left and right on the track tends to confuse American audiences, this is holding up pretty nicely today. But they’ll still have to contend with the Sunday issue, and this should still be down 50% for the 3 day. So figure it finishes right behind Barbie (sfx: Throat clearing) for a 3 day of 8-9 and a 4 day of about 10.
Bottoms - Expanded to 700 runs today, and this is a good example of how you handle a film like this. Since it’s a no name cast with exceptional exits and word of mouth, but also appeals to a certain demo, they started exclusive in NY, LA and SF and once they got the social media ball rolling with WOM, they took it a little wider to 700 runs. When you expand a film like this is kind of a game of ‘goldilocks’, and you want to take the number of theaters (and the right markets) so it’s juuuust right. Even though these grosses aren’t sensational once you get out of the core theaters, it’s still the #1 or #2 gross in the complex so on a relative basis, it’s pretty good. Right now it looks like about $3 million in 3, and mid 3’s in 4.