Oppenheimer
Drama Universal R 3h 0m Released Jul 21, 2023 Discussed 2023–2024
Opening weekend
$82.5M
3,610 theaters
Per-theater average
$22,841
opening weekend
Domestic total
$330.1M
4.0× its opening
Worldwide total
$983.1M
34% domestic
Production budget
$100.0M
9.8× worldwide
RT critics
93%
RT audience
91%
-2 vs critics
Metacritic
90
Where it turns up
Friday, April 28, 2023 Fourth weekend of April 2023
In the note
I think the biggest waste of money this time went to Universal, who spent (gods knows how much) money to equip the room (where Adele is currently performing) to show a 4 minute clip of Oppenheimer in 70mm.
Friday, June 23, 2023 Fourth weekend of June 2023
In the note
But we’ll get back on track next week and July should be a great month, highlighted by the upcoming cage match between Barbie and Oppenheimer mid July. So, the Academy is now Nielsen.
Thursday, July 13, 2023 Mission: Impossible Wednesday, July 2023
In the note
The valid reason is that with Oppenheimer and Barbie opening next week they wanted a couple of extra days in the Large Format (IMAX, Dolby) theaters, where the demand and ticket prices are higher. They've got film makers here who are very supportive of the big screen experience, and the goal here was to support that support.
Friday, July 14, 2023 Second weekend of July 2023
In the note
The other interesting question with this film is how it does next week against Oppenheimer, they have a lot of commonality to their skew. Sound of Freedom - Again, first thing first, this film is going to scream by $100 million cume, and God knows where this will stop (rimshot).
Friday, July 21, 2023 Barbenheimer weekend 2023
On the chart Oppenheimer (opening): $82.5M
Expected 'Right now this looks in the low mid 70's to me': sold-out PLFs capping the read Actual: $82.5M
In the note
So there’s a lot going on here that’s good long term for the business. There’s a lot of great marketing that has gone on to make this happen, and after seeing Oppenheimer last night there’s one angle that’s particularly interesting to me.
Friday, July 28, 2023 Fourth weekend of July 2023
On the chart Oppenheimer (wk 2): $46.7M, -43%
Expected 'Still half of Barbie and the weekend comes in around 45 with a shot at 50' Actual: $46.7M, 50.2% of Barbie
In the note
And if all your friends are going to see Oppenheimer or Barbie, but none of those appeal to you when you look up showtimes, it might activate you towards Theater Camp or Sound of Freedom.
Friday, August 4, 2023 First weekend of August 2023
On the chart Oppenheimer (wk 3): $29.1M, -38%
Expected 'Down 35% or so for a weekend in the very low 30's' Actual: $29.1M, -38%
In the note
It’s down a fairly normal amount today, so figure it’s down 40% or so for the weekend, which would put it somewhere in the mid 50’s. Oppenhiemer - This has been in lock step with Barbie, running about half of Barbie each day since they both opened, but today it’s down a little less than Barbie.
Friday, August 11, 2023 Second weekend of August 2023
On the chart Oppenheimer (wk 4): $18.8M, -35%
Expected 'Off about 40% for a weekend around $18 million' Actual: $18.8M, -35%
In the note
Of course, with more and more kids going back to school, the Sunday drop from Saturday will get steeper each week. Figure it drops about the same 43% as last week which would put the gross around $30 million. Oppenheimer - It’s weird that with kids going back, you would think Oppy would be the film holding a little better, but it’s the other way around, this is down a little more than it was at the same point last Friday. Figure it’s off about 40% for a weekend around $18 million. The Meg 2 - It’s down a very similar % as The Meg was in its 2nd Friday, so figure it’s off 55% for a weekend around $13 or $14 million. Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem - With the strong reviews and the good exit polls, I was hoping to see this flex it’s muscles today, but it’s down a very ordinary amount, so it looks like this is still struggling to break out of the appeal to only their core fan base.
Friday, August 18, 2023 Third weekend of August 2023
On the chart Oppenheimer (wk 5): $10.7M, -43%
Expected 'Down the same 35%... for a weekend in the very low teens' Actual: $10.7M, -43%
In the note
Figure a drop of about 35% for a weekend in the low 20's. Oppenheimer - As usual, in lock step with Barbie, just doing it at half the gross.
Friday, August 25, 2023 National Cinema Day weekend 2023
In the note
Since they did a couple of previews, there’s probably some distribution math possible if they plunk that revenue in tonight's gross; that would push those numbers up a little and there's a chance that could push them to #1. Oppenheimer - Looking rock solid today, and if this gets a nice bounce on Sunday, we could see this fairly close to even with the 10 they did last weekend. Retribution - Different title, same Liam Neeson result.
Friday, September 1, 2023 Labor Day weekend 2023
In the note
That would put Barbie at around 9 in 3 and 11 in 4, and Oppenheimer at about 5 in 3 and 6 in 4. Gran Turismo Based on a True Story - Even though a film about racing where cars go left and right on the track tends to confuse American audiences, this is holding up pretty nicely today.
Friday, March 1, 2024 First weekend of March 2024
In the note
Although the preview gross was pretty similar to something like Oppenheimer last night (minus the extra ‘fan’ shows), it’s a couple of points behind of Oppenheimer this afternoon.
Friday, April 26, 2024 Fourth weekend of April 2024
In the note
It will be interesting to see if someone like Robert Downey Jr’s next non IP film shows the success of Oppenheimer, since he really hasn’t worked that much outside of the Marvel Universe in a long time. This probably comes down to choices of projects outside of the IP driven character they are famous for.
Friday, July 19, 2024 Third weekend of July 2024
In the note
So if you take out Barbie from last year’s gross, even with Oppenheimer in the marketplace, we’re about the same gross (maybe a little behind) as this weekend last year.