Second weekend of August 2023
We’ve got our first strike affected weekend this weekend, Gran Turismo moved back a couple of weeks so they could do some sneaks and try to make up for talent not being on the publicity trail, so we’ve only got one wide film this weekend. And the only new film is just a standard mid August programmer. However, because we have BarbenHiemer in our quiver, we’re still going to do enough business to get to a level that’s right on the 10 year norm for the 2nd weekend in August. Once again we’ll almost double the total from 2023 (only one wide-ish movie, Fall) and we’ll only be about 6% to 8% behind 2019 (Scary Stories to Tell in the Dark, Dora and the Lost City of Gold, The Art of Racing in the Rain, The Kitchen and Brian Banks); so as you can see there was a ton of new titles dropping the same week in 2019, but we’re still competitive. The next couple of weeks don’t look half bad either, there’s a decent amount of film each week and we should continue to generate gross in line with the 10 year norms, so we’re in decent shape for the next couple of weeks even though the strike has complicated things. About 30% of K-12 went back to class this week, and next week it goes up to about 60% back in school, so Summer is coming to a close.
A couple of you have reached out for my take on the strike, and I really don’t have any information that any of you have, it’s just things I’ve read in the trades. But I’m super interested in where this all ends up, and what we’ll hear about where (and what) the asks (from each side) were during the negotiations once we’re through this. However, when it comes to residual payments based on viewership, the one thing that keeps rattling around in my head is that those payments aren’t really a lot of money (as the guilds keep pointing out in relation to exec’s salaries), so I doubt the total number is the hangup. Of course there’s that pesky aspect that I mentioned last week; talent used to get paid for content just because it aired, even though no one was watching. Since a lot of content on the platforms doesn’t get much viewership (in line with the pay/cable TV viewership), but that viewership now might matter, those payments might be all over the place.
But that’s the issue that seems to be the most important here, not the money paid out for residuals, it’s how you calculate it. And it’s not the level of calculation (revenue per view), it’s the base data that you calculate from; in other words……how many people are watching, and that’s been something that the streamers have guarded with their lives. As we’ve talked about here, the streamers have guarded every aspect of viewership including the grosses from theaters when they play there. It’s always been a weird aspect, because I’m not sure anyone would really care about the grosses in theaters, they’re so low for their stuff it’s easy to say ‘but they spend all their money getting people to watch it on the platform, it makes sense’. But we’re living in a ‘whatabout’ world, and consistency and precedent are crucial.
What’s been brilliant about not reporting any viewership numbers, is they’ve ducked the criticism that comes barreling towards theatrical when something doesn’t measure up to expectations (or at least what the press thinks are the expectations). Once you start reporting all the numbers, comparative data comes into play and the judgment starts. Just look at the beatings The Flash, Indiana Jones and Transformers got (but curiously Mission Impossible got a pass with very similar numbers). If Netflix reported viewership numbers the same way we get box office, would this weekend’s tentpole release Heart of Stone get the same treatment if the numbers were short of Grey Man or Expendables 2? Of course they would, and that’s the beauty of the streamers have approached this; their attitude seems to be ‘the glass is mostly always half empty from you idiots in the press so we’re just going to keep everything a secret’.
But now, here come the Actors and Writers asking for residuals, and to accomplish that, the data wall has to come down and that’s something that’s not going to happen easily. Forget about the press, the idea of Wall Street and shareholders asking a streamer ‘you paid what for that, and only X people watched it on the platform?’ has got to be more terrifying than any sort of actual payment going out the door. They built the platforms and have spent a lot of time and money to make it the way it is now (and they did it for a very specific reason), and they really don’t want to change that, so this is going to take a while and I’m not sure what the solution is. A couple of streamers like Netflix have started reporting some data, but it’s been very carefully curated, and it’s been closer to a press release than any sort of data reporting.
Of course, there are two wild cards in all this. First, all the streamers now have ad supported tiers, so it’s going to be interesting to see how effectively they can get away with reporting the numbers they’ll need to provide the reach to advertisers (they’re paying for) without showing anything else. But also, some very smart companies have figured out how to gauge how many people are watching their shows in both ad supported and subscription tiers, so it might be a weird hill to die on if people are going to know what the viewership is eventually anyway.
Anyway, with the expected accuracy of anything I said above when I really don’t know anything and I’m just poking around in the dark, here’s some more poking around in the dark regarding the weekend box office.
Barbie - With a lot of kids going back this week, today should be down a decent amount, but it’s actually down a couple of points less than it was at the same point last Friday. Of course, with more and more kids going back to school, the Sunday drop from Saturday will get steeper each week. Figure it drops about the same 43% as last week which would put the gross around $30 million.
*Oppenheimer *- It’s weird that with kids going back, you would think Oppy would be the film holding a little better, but it’s the other way around, this is down a little more than it was at the same point last Friday. Figure it’s off about 40% for a weekend around $18 million.
The Meg 2 - It’s down a very similar % as The Meg was in its 2nd Friday, so figure it’s off 55% for a weekend around $13 or $14 million.
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem - With the strong reviews and the good exit polls, I was hoping to see this flex it’s muscles today, but it’s down a very ordinary amount, so it looks like this is still struggling to break out of the appeal to only their core fan base. Just like last week, this will probably be neck and neck with Meg and end up in a similar $13 or $14 million for the weekend. Even though it will actually be down about 45% from last week, there were some Distribution Math Shenanigans last weekend, so the reported drop will be closer to 50%.
*The Last Voyage of the Demeter *- The trailer that everyone saw before Oppy and shrugged, is opening today. There’s not much there, and the exit polls have so far aligned with the low critics scores. Looks like high single digits right now.
Jailer - Another Bollywood film that’s doing really good business. Looks like it opened on about 450 screens and it looks good enough for a weekend of $3 or $4 million.
Jules - Opened on about 800 theaters and there’s not much going on here. Even the best theaters aren’t anything, so figure a weekend of $600k or so.