Barbie

Comedy Warner Bros. PG-13 1h 54m Released Jul 21, 2023 Discussed 2023–2024

Opening weekend

$162.0M

4,243 theaters

Per-theater average

$38,186

opening weekend

Domestic total

$636.8M

3.9× its opening

Worldwide total

$1.45B

44% domestic

Production budget

$145.0M

10.0× worldwide

RT critics

88%

RT audience

83%

-5 vs critics

Metacritic

Where it turns up

Friday, June 23, 2023 Fourth weekend of June 2023

In the note But we’ll get back on track next week and July should be a great month, highlighted by the upcoming cage match between Barbie and Oppenheimer mid July. So, the Academy is now Nielsen.

Thursday, July 13, 2023 Mission: Impossible Wednesday, July 2023

In the note The valid reason is that with Oppenheimer and Barbie opening next week they wanted a couple of extra days in the Large Format (IMAX, Dolby) theaters, where the demand and ticket prices are higher. They've got film makers here who are very supportive of the big screen experience, and the goal here was to support that support.

Friday, July 21, 2023 Barbenheimer weekend 2023

On the chart Barbie (opening): $162.0M

Expected 'Should fly by Mario's $146 million... for now I'll say this looks like a weekend in the 180's' Actual: $162.0M, flew by Mario, short of the 180s

In the note But after seeing the film last night, geez did they sell everyone some snake oil here. Of the 4 films that will rule the box-office this weekend (Oppenheimer, Barbie, Mission: Impossible and Sound of Freedom) I’d put this film in 4th place as far as ‘you must see this in a PLF’.

Friday, July 28, 2023 Fourth weekend of July 2023

On the chart Barbie (wk 2): $93.0M, -43%

Expected 'Looks like a weekend in the low 90's but I wouldn't rule out getting to $100 million' Actual: $93.0M

In the note And if all your friends are going to see Oppenheimer or Barbie, but none of those appeal to you when you look up showtimes, it might activate you towards Theater Camp or Sound of Freedom.

Friday, August 4, 2023 First weekend of August 2023

On the chart Barbie (wk 3): $53.0M, -43%

Expected 'Down 40% or so for the weekend... somewhere in the mid 50's' Actual: $53.0M, -43%

In the note When you're building a movie, Greta Gerwig directing Barbie and Tim Burton directing Dumbo probably looked like a very similar risk.

Friday, August 11, 2023 Second weekend of August 2023

On the chart Barbie (wk 4): $33.8M, -36%

Expected 'Figure it drops about the same 43% as last week which would put the gross around $30 million' Actual: $33.8M, -36%

In the note We’ve got our first strike affected weekend this weekend, Gran Turismo moved back a couple of weeks so they could do some sneaks and try to make up for talent not being on the publicity trail, so we’ve only got one wide film this weekend. And the only new film is just a standard mid August programmer. However, because we have BarbenHiemer in our quiver, we’re still going to do enough business to get to a level that’s right on the 10 year norm for the 2nd weekend in August. Once again we’ll almost double the total from 2023 (only one wide-ish movie, Fall) and we’ll only be about 6% to 8% behind 2019 (Scary Stories to Tell in the Dark, Dora and the Lost City of Gold, The Art of Racing in the Rain, The Kitchen and Brian Banks); so as you can see there was a ton of new titles dropping the same week in 2019, but we’re still competitive. The next couple of weeks don’t look half bad either, there’s a decent amount of film each week and we should continue to generate gross in line with the 10 year norms, so we’re in decent shape for the next couple of weeks even though the strike has complicated things. About 30% of K-12 went back to class this week, and next week it goes up to about 60% back in school, so Summer is coming to a close. A couple of you have reached out for my take on the strike, and I really don’t have any information that any of you have, it’s just things I’ve read in the trades. But I’m super interested in where this all ends up, and what we’ll hear about where (and what) the asks (from each side) were during the negotiations once we’re through this. However, when it comes to residual payments based on viewership, the one thing that keeps rattling around in my head is that those payments aren’t really a lot of money (as the guilds keep pointing out in relation to exec's salaries), so I doubt the total number is the hangup. Of course there’s that pesky aspect that I mentioned last week; talent used to get paid for content just because it aired, even though no one was watching. Since a lot of content on the platforms doesn’t get much viewership (in line with the pay/cable TV viewership), but that viewership now might matter, those payments might be all over the place. But that’s the issue that seems to be the most important here, not the money paid out for residuals, it’s how you calculate it. And it's not the level of calculation (revenue per view), it’s the base data that you calculate from; in other words……how many people are watching, and that’s been something that the streamers have guarded with their lives. As we’ve talked about here, the streamers have guarded every aspect of viewership including the grosses from theaters when they play there. It’s always been a weird aspect, because I’m not sure anyone would really care about the grosses in theaters, they’re so low for their stuff it’s easy to say ‘but they spend all their money getting people to watch it on the platform, it makes sense'. But we’re living in a ‘whatabout’ world, and consistency and precedent are crucial. What’s been brilliant about not reporting any viewership numbers, is they’ve ducked the criticism that comes barreling towards theatrical when something doesn’t measure up to expectations (or at least what the press thinks are the expectations). Once you start reporting all the numbers, comparative data comes into play and the judgment starts. Just look at the beatings The Flash, Indiana Jones and Transformers got (but curiously Mission Impossible got a pass with very similar numbers). If Netflix reported viewership numbers the same way we get box office, would this weekend’s tentpole release Heart of Stone get the same treatment if the numbers were short of Grey Man or Expendables 2? Of course they would, and that's the beauty of the streamers have approached this; their attitude seems to be 'the glass is mostly always half empty from you idiots in the press so we’re just going to keep everything a secret'. But now, here come the Actors and Writers asking for residuals, and to accomplish that, the data wall has to come down and that’s something that’s not going to happen easily. Forget about the press, the idea of Wall Street and shareholders asking a streamer ‘you paid what for that, and only X people watched it on the platform?’ has got to be more terrifying than any sort of actual payment going out the door. They built the platforms and have spent a lot of time and money to make it the way it is now (and they did it for a very specific reason), and they really don’t want to change that, so this is going to take a while and I’m not sure what the solution is. A couple of streamers like Netflix have started reporting some data, but it's been very carefully curated, and it's been closer to a press release than any sort of data reporting. Of course, there are two wild cards in all this. First, all the streamers now have ad supported tiers, so it’s going to be interesting to see how effectively they can get away with reporting the numbers they’ll need to provide the reach to advertisers (they're paying for) without showing anything else. But also, some very smart companies have figured out how to gauge how many people are watching their shows in both ad supported and subscription tiers, so it might be a weird hill to die on if people are going to know what the viewership is eventually anyway. Anyway, with the expected accuracy of anything I said above when I really don't know anything and I'm just poking around in the dark, here's some more poking around in the dark regarding the weekend box office. Barbie - With a lot of kids going back this week, today should be down a decent amount, but it’s actually down a couple of points less than it was at the same point last Friday.

Friday, August 18, 2023 Third weekend of August 2023

On the chart Barbie (wk 5): $21.0M, -38%

Expected 'Figure a drop of about 35% for a weekend in the low 20's' Actual: $21.0M, -38%

In the note As we all say our prayers in regards to the slight daylight we’re hearing about the strike, BarbenHeimer is continuing to prop up the box-office. We’ll be well above the 10 year norm this weekend by about 10%, and as we’ve been doing since mid last month we’ll be well ahead of the same weekend last year (Dragon Ball Super: Super Hero, Beast), probably by 40% or so. The same weekend in 2019 (Good Boys, Angry Birds 2, 47 Meters Down 2 and Blinded by the Light) will probably come out just a little ahead of this year. But we’re still almost $1.3 billion ahead of last year, so hopefully the strike issues won’t keep us from taking a step back this fall. A bunch of kids went back to school this week, and there’s now a little more than half the K-12 back in school and the grosses this afternoon are showing that. There’s not a lot going on this week, so this is gonna be kind of short today. The only thing of note is that we have another film that was greenlit for a streamer and it’s found its way into theaters today. As usual you’ll be able to spot the industry frauds from the seasoned professionals this weekend, because the frauds will tsk tsk this gross on Blue Beetle saying it’s just another step in the decline of DC. However, this was a film greenlit for Max, with a Max budget and built to stream. But since it turned out pretty good (currently 78% critics, 94% audience on RT), WBD saw an opportunity to make some extra money and increase the profile once it hits the platform. This is the upside of the streaming revolution, it’s one more option for a film once it’s completed. So if you make something where the budget works if it’s a straight to platform release, but it turns out better than expected and has the chops to compete in the theatrical sector, there's money to be made. But if it’s just okay (or worse), streaming platforms are a major upgrade to what usually happened to films that didn’t turn out before the streamers were around. Streaming movies is the new ’straight to DVD’ of the business, but with a much better financial structure and return. Chutes and Ladders. We can only hope that the new contracts for the WGA and SAG force the hand of the streamers, and they have to start reporting numbers. The only thing that seems to be holding them back from doing traditional (and profitable) theatrical releases seems to be the reporting issues. They can’t still think that exclusivity to a platform is a good thing, can they? However, as I talked about last week, the streamers paid a lot of money to top tier talent (to buy out backends) so there was no need to report, so I’m not sure anything will change because they paid good money to make it that way. Although the battle cry of the streamers has been ‘disruptor’, maybe all the recent headlines lately about how linear TV is the big victim of the streaming revolution, maybe they’ll let go of the idea of putting theaters out of business (as their main target of disruption); and then lean into the substantial revenue streams they produce. Anyway, with the accuracy and dependability normally associated with Hurricane path forecasts, here are some thoughts on the weekend box-office. Blue Beetle - As I mentioned above, this film was made for Max, but WBD has crafted a strong campaign (and the movie is good enough as well) to take the #1 crown away from their own Barbie.

Friday, August 25, 2023 National Cinema Day weekend 2023

On the chart Barbie (wk 6): $15.1M, -28%

Expected 'Figure this is anywhere from mid teens to high teens': and 'might be the big winner' of Cinema Day Actual: $15.1M, -28%

In the note Unfortunately we now know that streaming is a 2nd tier distribution channel for movies, why would you shove something to the 2nd tier until you’ve exhausted the top tier? Anyway, with the accuracy of my bathroom scale and tape measure that says I'm 200 lbs and 6'4", here are some thoughts on the weekend box office. Barbie - Considering we lost a bunch more kids this week, 2/3 are back in school now and more than half of Colleges are now back in school (let the normal binge drinking associated with the first week of school begin), this is holding really nicely today.

Friday, September 1, 2023 Labor Day weekend 2023

On the chart Barbie (wk 7): $10.2M, -32%

Expected 'Figure it's down 40%... at around 9 in 3' Actual: $10.2M, -32%

In the note That would put Barbie at around 9 in 3 and 11 in 4, and Oppenheimer at about 5 in 3 and 6 in 4. Gran Turismo Based on a True Story - Even though a film about racing where cars go left and right on the track tends to confuse American audiences, this is holding up pretty nicely today.

Friday, March 1, 2024 First weekend of March 2024

In the note Dune Part Two also doesn’t have Barbie opening against it, so it’s going to have a lot more retail shelf space and there’s very little chance the exhibitors will run out of seats. Of course with a movie like this, you could always have a situation like was observed on Avatar: The Way of Water where consumers chose to wait until they could get a seat in an IMAX/Dolby theater.

Friday, June 14, 2024 Father's Day weekend 2024

In the note It’s way better than Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse was at this point last year, and it's actually creeping up on Barbie.

Friday, July 19, 2024 Third weekend of July 2024

In the note To show you how last year was an outlier’s outlier, the entire gross for this year is still going to be short of what Barbie did on it’s own last year on this weekend.