Third weekend of August 2023

As we all say our prayers in regards to the slight daylight we’re hearing about the strike, BarbenHeimer is continuing to prop up the box-office. We’ll be well above the 10 year norm this weekend by about 10%, and as we’ve been doing since mid last month we’ll be well ahead of the same weekend last year (Dragon Ball Super: Super Hero, Beast), probably by 40% or so. The same weekend in 2019 (Good Boys, Angry Birds 2, 47 Meters Down 2 and Blinded by the Light) will probably come out just a little ahead of this year. But we’re still almost $1.3 billion ahead of last year, so hopefully the strike issues won’t keep us from taking a step back this fall. A bunch of kids went back to school this week, and there’s now a little more than half the K-12 back in school and the grosses this afternoon are showing that.

There’s not a lot going on this week, so this is gonna be kind of short today. The only thing of note is that we have another film that was greenlit for a streamer and it’s found its way into theaters today. As usual you’ll be able to spot the industry frauds from the seasoned professionals this weekend, because the frauds will tsk tsk this gross on Blue Beetle saying it’s just another step in the decline of DC. However, this was a film greenlit for Max, with a Max budget and built to stream. But since it turned out pretty good (currently 78% critics, 94% audience on RT), WBD saw an opportunity to make some extra money and increase the profile once it hits the platform.

This is the upside of the streaming revolution, it’s one more option for a film once it’s completed. So if you make something where the budget works if it’s a straight to platform release, but it turns out better than expected and has the chops to compete in the theatrical sector, there’s money to be made. But if it’s just okay (or worse), streaming platforms are a major upgrade to what usually happened to films that didn’t turn out before the streamers were around. Streaming movies is the new ’straight to DVD’ of the business, but with a much better financial structure and return. Chutes and Ladders.

We can only hope that the new contracts for the WGA and SAG force the hand of the streamers, and they have to start reporting numbers. The only thing that seems to be holding them back from doing traditional (and profitable) theatrical releases seems to be the reporting issues. They can’t still think that exclusivity to a platform is a good thing, can they? However, as I talked about last week, the streamers paid a lot of money to top tier talent (to buy out backends) so there was no need to report, so I’m not sure anything will change because they paid good money to make it that way. Although the battle cry of the streamers has been ‘disruptor’, maybe all the recent headlines lately about how linear TV is the big victim of the streaming revolution, maybe they’ll let go of the idea of putting theaters out of business (as their main target of disruption); and then lean into the substantial revenue streams they produce.

Anyway, with the accuracy and dependability normally associated with Hurricane path forecasts, here are some thoughts on the weekend box-office.

Blue Beetle - As I mentioned above, this film was made for Max, but WBD has crafted a strong campaign (and the movie is good enough as well) to take the #1 crown away from their own Barbie. It’s a little behind where Meg 2 was at the same point last week, but with so many kids back in school today, that’s about the same as even. Because the DC IP isn’t top shelf here, this is more of a family movie with a superhero than a straight on superhero film, so it’s going to be interesting to see how it plays over the weekend. It’s also got a strong Hispanic skew (15 of the top 25 theaters are in Los Angeles), so it should have a nice kick later tonight and tomorrow. For now I’ll say it looks like high 20’s with a shot at 30 (depending on the family element coming through), but whatever it is, it’s more money that it would have made if it had gone straight to a platform.

Barbie - Even considering a lot of kids went back to school it’s still really good. Figure a drop of about 35% for a weekend in the low 20’s.

Oppenheimer - As usual, in lock step with Barbie, just doing it at half the gross. Down the same 35% as Barbie for a weekend in the very low teens.

Strays - This is an animal movie in so many ways. It may seem like a dog movie but it’s really a feathered fish. Can’t swim and can’t fly so it just kinda dies. It’s a dog movie, and that usually appeals to kids and moms, but it’s a hard R so they’re not going. Plus the hard R humor is mostly appreciated by 13 year old boys, and because it’s R they can’t go either. So it’s a weirdly constructed film that appeals to a demo who can’t go or appeals to a demo who doesn’t go because when they find out what it is, it’s not for them. Right now it looks a lot like Universal’s recent Renfield, so figure a similar weekend around $8 million.

Back on the Strip - This stand up film is struggling hard right now on the 1300 theaters it opened in. There’s so much stand up comedy on the streamers these days, it’s really tough to make a theatrical proposition land. The better theaters are all AA skewing, but this looks like a weekend of about $400k.