Avatar: The Way of Water
Sci-Fi & Fantasy 20th Century PG-13 3h 10m Released Dec 16, 2022 Discussed 2022–2025
Opening weekend
$134.1M
4,202 theaters
Per-theater average
$31,913
opening weekend
Domestic total
$688.8M
5.1× its opening
Worldwide total
$2.32B
30% domestic
Production budget
$400.0M
5.8× worldwide
RT critics
76%
RT audience
92%
+16 vs critics
Metacritic
67
Where it turns up
Friday, September 23, 2022 Fourth weekend of September 2022
On the chart Avatar (reissue): $10.5M
Expected 'Somewhere in the high single digits': the NWH/Jaws reissue pattern Actual: $10.5M
In the note
Humans can be very human and the heart wants what it wants; but when there’s a lack of discipline and professionalism in your work, just don’t blame the result on Marketing. Avatar - Taking advantage of the light release schedule, and giving some attention to an IP that’s been pretty dormant for a long time before the sequel comes out this Christmas, 20th/Disney really leaned into the re-issue this weekend.
Friday, December 16, 2022 Avatar: The Way of Water weekend 2022
On the chart Avatar: The Way of Water (opening): $134.1M
Expected 'Using that 47% percentage (of No Way Home), that would put the weekend at about $125 million' Actual: $134.1M
In the note
It was nice to hear that many of you saw through my thinly veiled cautionary tale last week about movies opening before Christmas, and knew I was talking about Avatar: The Way of Water this week.
Thursday, December 22, 2022 A Wednesday dispatch, December 2022
In the note
However, just like Avatar last week, this IP has a history of starting slow and ending up at much better number than the beginning indicates.
Monday, December 26, 2022 Christmas Day 2022
On the chart Avatar: The Way of Water (Christmas Day): +81% day-over-day
In the note
But even though these increases from yesterday are better than normal, we'll need a similar jump tomorrow for the movies that opened Friday in order to get back to 'normal'. Rogue One Was up 48%. Sing 2 was up 45%. Passengers was up 134% And here’s what today looks like. Avatar: The Way of Water - Up 81% Puss in Boots The Last Wish - Up 79% Babylon - Up 150% I Wanna Dance with Somebody - Up 123% The Whale - Up 128%
Friday, December 30, 2022 New Year's weekend 2022
On the chart Avatar: The Way of Water (wk 3): $67.4M, +6%
Expected 'I'll stay conservative and it will be somewhere around $70 million for the 3 day' Actual: $67.4M, +6%
In the note
Avatar or Spider-Man No Way Home (or the Star Wars films) offered an upgraded experience compared with watching a TV movie at home, so they did just fine.
Friday, January 6, 2023 First weekend of January 2023
On the chart Avatar: The Way of Water (wk 4): $45.8M, -32%
Expected 'Off about 50% from last weekend for a weekend in the mid 30's' Actual: $45.8M, -32%
In the note
Happy New Year everyone. There are a couple of interesting things going on at the box-office this week, and there are two films opening this week that you should pay particular attention to (and I’ll address them both individually below). But first, let’s all repeat the post covid theatrical mantra…. two year rule….two year rule….two year rule….. The next 5 weeks or so (after this weekend) are going to be iffy at best and some weeks are going to be brutal. But 2 years ago (and just to remind you, let’s say 2 years is a norm from the time a studio/financier gets pregnant with a movie to it’s release), we were just starting the vaccine distribution and most of the biggest media markets were still restricted or shut down. But as the vaccine rolled out, the amber light of 'maybe/let’s see' turned to the green of ‘yes'; projects started becoming real as we started to see light at the end of the tunnel in the 2nd quarter of 2021, and we’ll see the same light at the end of the tunnel 2 years later in February 2023. One of the reasons the box office has been all over the place is because (for the most part) we still need to build up our ‘habitual’ moviegoers, their metronome-like attendance tends to even out the box office from week to week. It’s probably one of the key reasons for the malaise in the art/specialty sector, not only are we missing a consistent stream of releases (and films that don’t have titles bathed in the poison of arrogance) we’re also missing the theaters that would offer them every week. It would be great for the industry if AMC embraced the genre at Century City, the Grove and Burbank, but that’s just not what they do. But going back to wide films, the start and stop of the release schedule is probably the culprit (and of course the long shutdown played a part), and since everything in the world was start and stop 2 years ago, that tracks. Starting around President’s Day we’ll start seeing a pretty steady stream of films and we’ll start seeing those results feed off each other, so hopefully those habituals will come back. Anyway, with the expected accuracy of the exact date when you should stop saying Happy New Year, which we all know is January 10, here are some thoughts on the weekend box-office. Avatar: The Way of Water - This looks like it’s legging out the way we thought it would, it’s holding up pretty good today, but Sunday will be way down because of the Monday holiday last week.
Friday, January 20, 2023 Third weekend of January 2023
On the chart Avatar: The Way of Water (wk 6): $20.1M, -39%
Expected 'Down about 35% for a weekend in the low 20's' Actual: $20.1M, -39%
In the note
Of course, that didn’t help the Regal Sherman Oaks stay open, but when Arclight made it one of the best theaters in LA by having an Arclight Cinemas sign at one of the busiest freeway intersections in the country and Regal had…Regal (maybe it’s a dry cleaner?), they probably got what they deserved. Anyway, with the accuracy generally associated with a TJ Holmes HR seminar, here are some thoughts on the weekend box office. Avatar The Way of Water - It’s not quite doing Avatar stuff this weekend (Avatar was only down 18% the corresponding weekend), but it’s still damn good.
Friday, January 27, 2023 Fourth weekend of January 2023
On the chart Avatar: The Way of Water (wk 7): $16.0M, -21%
Expected 'Down about 20% and end up in the high mid teens' Actual: $16.0M, -21%
Friday, February 3, 2023 First weekend of February 2023
On the chart Avatar: The Way of Water (wk 8): $11.3M, -29%
Expected 'Down 30% for a weekend of about $11 million' Actual: $11.3M, -29%
In the note
But clearly by not reporting, they are forfeiting their Oscar chances if the rules change this year the way I’d like them to. Avatar: The Way of Water - Even with a couple of decent new films in the marketplace, it’s still doing Avatar stuff.
Friday, February 10, 2023 Super Bowl weekend 2023
On the chart Avatar: The Way of Water (wk 9): $7.2M
In the note
The re-issue of Titanic, Avatar The Way of Water, 80 for Brady and Knock at the Cabin are pretty tightly bunched together right now.
Friday, February 17, 2023 Presidents Day weekend 2023
On the chart Avatar: The Way of Water (wk 10): $6.6M, -9%
Expected Kids out of school, both 'having very good days today' Actual: Puss -4%, Avatar -9%; barely dropped against a $106M opener
In the note
Because it's the Character that drives the gross, this is a step forward, not a step backwards. The holdovers are all doing normal holdover stuff today, there's 25% of K-12 out, so the kid skewing films like Puss in Boots and Avatar are having very good days today. Marlowe - Oh I know you, didn’t you used to be Liam Neeson? Liam Neeson’s last 4 movies before this film were Honest Thief, The Marksman, Blacklight and Memory, none which opened to more than $3.6 million.
Friday, February 24, 2023 Fourth weekend of February 2023
On the chart Avatar: The Way of Water (wk 11): $4.9M, -26%
Friday, July 21, 2023 Barbenheimer weekend 2023
In the note
We saw that last Christmas when Avatar opened and consumers chose to wait until they could see it with the presentation they preferred.
Friday, December 1, 2023 First weekend of December 2023
In the note
Just look at last year, Avatar had tracking forecasts up in the $180 million range, but it opened at $131 million (and ended up at $684 million, which, based on the multiple off the opening weekend, aligns closer to that forecast during a non pre-Christmas play period).
Friday, December 15, 2023 Third weekend of December 2023
In the note
Last year, Avatar: The Way of Water opened to $132 million, and in 2019 Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle (in addition to minor openings for Richard Jewell and Black Christmas) opened to $59 million.
Friday, January 5, 2024 First weekend of January 2024
In the note
Last year was the beginning of the M3GAN phenomenon, plus we still had Avatar The Way Of Water starting it’s long long run and A Man Called Otto was just beginning to remind us that Red State moviegoers want to go to the movies too.
Friday, January 19, 2024 Third weekend of January 2024
In the note
The big difference between this year and last is really two aspects; the holdovers are a little stronger driven by Avatar and M3gan, plus we only have a couple of new films this weekend that will combine to about half of what the new film opened to last year (Missing).
Friday, March 1, 2024 First weekend of March 2024
In the note
Dune Part Two also doesn’t have Barbie opening against it, so it’s going to have a lot more retail shelf space and there’s very little chance the exhibitors will run out of seats. Of course with a movie like this, you could always have a situation like was observed on Avatar: The Way of Water where consumers chose to wait until they could get a seat in an IMAX/Dolby theater.
Friday, October 3, 2025 First weekend of October 2025
On the chart Avatar: The Way of Water (reissue): $3.2M
Expected About $3M Actual: $3.2M