Third weekend of December 2023
And here we go. Over the next 11 days we’ll have a lot of high production costs dropped right next to each other and I’m sure we’ll have some surprises; that’s pretty much what this time of year does. As far as totals compared back to last year and 2019, we’ll be way behind. Last year, Avatar: The Way of Water opened to $132 million, and in 2019 Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle (in addition to minor openings for Richard Jewell and Black Christmas) opened to $59 million. So even though we have a really nice opening this year (especially for this weekend, which can be really challenging to get consumers to the theater), the total will come up short.
Because of the slate of films we’ve got opening this Christmas season, it’s entirely possible the American Movie Goer will tell us what they are in the mood for. Since the World is in a pretty dark place right now, there are a couple of films this Christmas that might not have worked in the past, but because everything keeps feeling more apocalyptic every day, they might be a bullseye this year. And since we’re asking people to leave their house in this sector, maybe make them smile when they leave the theater.
As usual we have a variety of films this season, but of the wide films going, only three could really be considered ‘pure fun’. Next weekend is especially interesting because there’s a fun film and a heavy film facing off. The critics have already weighed in on the heavy film very favorably, and we’ll have to see how they react to the fun film. But even the films that have both Comedy and Drama are more of a Drama-Comedy than a Comedy-Drama. So even though the critics will have issues with the ‘fun’ films (and they’ve already picked at Wonka, more on that below), if we look back and see how the escapist films did over the holidays, maybe we should consider how to date films next Christmas? If we end up with a couple of films (that the critics pick at because they’re not ‘edgy’ enough) doing business, and the films where the critics are in love but everyone dies in the end (or commits suicide) fall by the wayside, we should listen to what the audience is telling us. Last year, we saw two films where everyone dies (or commits suicide), Babylon and Whitney Houston; both struggled out of the gate at Christmas and never clawed their way back.
Good films are good films are good films, and the audience for the big city upscale films has no issue with challenging emotional narratives, so the time period is still ripe for award positioned rollouts. But the more you go out into the burbs, it’s probably a better idea this time of year to allow them to leave the theater with a smile. But let’s see if this season agrees with that.
Anyway, with the expected accuracy and efficacy of a sideline reporter asking a NFL Coach that’s down 42-0 at half ‘how would you assess your team’s performance in the first half?’, here are some thoughts on the weekend box-office.
Wonka - They had some really good openings internationally last weekend, and today it looks like it’s continuing the trend here in the US and Canada. They had a really nice preview gross last night (especially for a PG film), and today’s numbers (so far) show they had robust pre-sales. Now we have to see where it goes, and the big question; ‘is this a pure family film or something broader?’ What’s interesting here is how the critics sniffed at it (even though for the most part they were positive reviews) as being too soft. That might be something that works in its favor, since some of the elements here aren’t aspects that automatically assure a family audience. The cast has a fan-ship more associated with non-Family films and the last version of this IP went pretty dark. So you have a package here that’s pretty friendly to a general audience (and a star in Timothee that adds a nice amount of cool), yet the critics said it’s soft and family safe. It’s interesting how both of those elements are showing up today. The best general audience theaters in the big cities (plus a bunch of theaters with Brewhouse, Drafthouse and Dine-In in their names) are really good, but the theaters in Salt Lake City and other great Family theaters are as good as any decent sized Disney film. So it looks like it might be a strong Family film (which should show up big time tomorrow, because there are pretty much zero kids out of school today), but it looks like there’s a lot of general audience appeal as well. The one word that I love over the holidays is ‘compromise’. Compromise equals a lot of money, and if you can have a film that all those diverse tastes (who are together over the holidays) can agree on, the money just keeps flowing in.
As good as those pre-sales are, you still need walk up business, and the walk up so far has been pretty good. Of course, as I’ve told you before, this is a very challenging time of year to get folks to the movies; so if this film didn’t get high enough on the ’to-do’ list by now, It’s really hard to change minds today. So we’ll have to see where this goes tonight, how late it goes tonight, and how big the bounce is tomorrow. The most promising thing going on right now is that the numbers are in lock step with Jumani: The Next Level, but I doubt this will play as late as that film did. As of now, it would have to really be flat tonight and tomorrow to get below 40, and right now I’d say mid 40’s is more likely. But if it holds up tonight and has the same Saturday bounce the International territories had last weekend, it could easily have a 5 in front of it. But considering all the headwinds a movie on this weekend faces, it’s spectacular whatever it ends up being.
The Boy and the Heron - As good as this was last weekend, and as good as the exits were, this is still a finite audience and it’s way down today. Figure it’s down 65% for a weekend in the mid 4’s.
Christmas with The Chosen: Holy Night - Went 2000 theaters and it looks like it’s all pre-sales, super flat all day. Unless it’s a one day wonder, figure it’s around $2 million for the weekend.
Poor Things - Expanded to 82 runs this weekend, and it’s playing really deep for an Art House movie. The numbers are very good, especially for this time of year. Looks like a very promising $1.5 million or so for the weekend.
American Fiction - Went 7 runs in NY, LA and Austin, and once again Austin is showing up as a market that needs to be considered in the top tier of these platform releases. Probably because of the Literary nature of the film’s story, NY is doing much better than LA, but Austin is better than all 3 LA theaters right now. Figure a nice psa in the low 20’s.
Zone of Interest - Went 4 theaters in NY and LA, and both markets are very good. However, we’ve got an ‘ah-ha’ moment with this movie. Instead of taking the usual Century City and The Grove, they substituted The Grove with the newly remodeled Vista. And the gross there is as good or better than what The Grove would be, so this looks like we have one more art film tool in the toolbox. Looks like an impressive 3 day psa around $40k.