Wonka

Friday, December 15, 2023 Third weekend of December 2023

On the chart Wonka (opening): $39.0M

Expected 'It would have to really be flat tonight and tomorrow to get below 40, and right now I'd say mid 40's is more likely' Actual: $39.0M

In the note So even though the critics will have issues with the ‘fun’ films (and they’ve already picked at Wonka, more on that below), if we look back and see how the escapist films did over the holidays, maybe we should consider how to date films next Christmas? If we end up with a couple of films (that the critics pick at because they’re not ‘edgy’ enough) doing business, and the films where the critics are in love but everyone dies in the end (or commits suicide) fall by the wayside, we should listen to what the audience is telling us.

Friday, January 5, 2024 First weekend of January 2024

On the chart Wonka (wk 4): $14.1M, -37%; still #1

Expected Keeps #1; 'down about 30% for a weekend in the mid teens' Actual: $14.1M, -37%; held #1

In the note But we shouldn’t be more than 10% behind last year. Anyway, with the expected accuracy and efficacy of Peloton’s new competitor to Rotten Tomatoes (although Peloton instructors probably aren’t any more qualified to review films than the actual critics on Rotten Tomatoes, but are considerably hotter........maybe they are on to something here), here are some thoughts on the weekend box-office. Wonka - Should have no problem keeping the top spot this weekend, and this weekend will probably be a good indicator of where this film will net out at the end of the day.

Friday, January 19, 2024 Third weekend of January 2024

On the chart Wonka (wk 6): $6.7M, -21%

Expected 'Down 20% for a weekend in the high 6's' Actual: $6.7M, -21%

In the note Figure it’s down about 50% for a weekend around $14 million. The Beekeeper - Jason Statham films aren’t exactly known for their holding power, but this film looks a little better than normal today. Figure it’s down 45% for a weekend of about $9 million. Wonka - Showing some resiliency today and it’s not down much.

Friday, February 2, 2024 First weekend of February 2024

On the chart Wonka (wk 8): $4.7M, -17%

Friday, February 16, 2024 Presidents Day weekend 2024

Expected 'Going great today and are up from last Friday': kids out of school Actual: Migration +30%, Wonka +15%; both UP in weeks 9 and 10

In the note But anyone considering a non-Friday opening needs to take a hard look at the math before they pass on a normal Friday opening. For the rest of the films: because there are kids out of school the two family titles (Migration and Wonka) are going great today and are up from last Friday.

Friday, June 14, 2024 Father's Day weekend 2024

In the note The normal June gloom we get this time of year here in LA looks like it’s going to go away early, and it looks like the box-office is going to be really sunny this weekend as well. I’ll dive into why it’s good below, but at this point it looks like we’ll beat Father’s Day weekend from last year (The Flash, Elemental, The Blackening). It might be only a little bit, but considering what we’ve been going through (and it’s not over yet), we’ll take the clouds parting, if only for one weekend. And we might even stay ahead next weekend, which is weird. Over the course of my career, the 3rd weekend in June has been some of the most prime release date real estate on the calendar (and way back when, it was the traditional start of the Summer Box-office season, because that’s when the bulk of schools got out), but both last year and this year the lineup looks closer to a Sundance screening schedule than a Blockbuster release date. Before Covid, we had films like Toy Story 4, Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom, Transformers: The Last Knight, Finding Dory, Central Intelligence, Inside Out on this weekend; the list goes on and on. Of course, this is a result of lower output and big titles finding better dates (or at least dates that worked better for them), but once we get back to normal output, next weekend should come back as prime real estate. One of the things I keep hearing from many of you, as you pitch projects around town, is studios don’t want to hear pitches that aren’t attached to ‘known IP’. And that’s fine, I get the idea that it’s easier to sell a film if you can anchor the marketing to a familiar IP. But with the box-office struggling because of output, we need to keep building our base up and get back the habitual moviegoer. And the ‘known IP’ treasure chest is getting pretty sparse now. Looking at what’s been going on lately, the audience keeps telling us they need a break from the depressing world we’re in and will pay to feel good. As one of the smartest industry vets I’ve ever known always says ‘funny is money’; and if you look at the top 3 films this weekend, Inside Out 2, Bad Boys Ride or Die and The Garfield Movie, it’s IP + funny. If you go back to last Christmas, which is always a cage match when all the films drop at the same time, what broke out and had legs? Wonka and Anyone But You.

Friday, December 13, 2024 Second weekend of December 2024

In the note This weekend should deliver another nice surplus compared to last year ( Wonka), and should finish just above the 5 year norm for this weekend. The rest of the year should be comfortably ahead of last year as well. January looks really soft, but last year (actually since it’s 2024, it’s this year) was just okay, so the stronger holdovers might keep us pretty even all month. Alright, here we are at the killing zone of the Christmas release schedule, and if you have the goods (Wonka, Jumanji) it’s a nice launching point for a Christmas movie.

Where it turns up