First weekend of October 2025
As expected, TAYLOR SWIFT has come to the rescue this weekend and we’ll have a nice surplus when compared to last year (Joker Folie a Deux, White Bird), and we’ll turn about a $15 million deficit into a substantial positive (depending on how the weekend plays out). We’ve got a substantial amount of new films coming in next weekend, so we’ll have a nice surplus next weekend as well, but that surplus could go up even more if TAYLOR SWIFT gives her fans another weekend (it’s booked as only this weekend right now). But we should be competitive or maybe a little better each weekend for the rest of the year.
When I wrote about how last weekend’s opening of One Battle After Another was going to be viewed as a ‘glass half empty’ situation, I got a few responses from you pointing out that……the glass is half empty (because of the cost of the film). So let me make a couple of points.
First of all, since most of the responses were from people on the supply side of the business, let’s be serious; of all the unpleasant things you’ve had to do in the past to get a movie made, you would have gone through double that to make this movie. So stop with the high horse narrative of…..but the cost, you would have made this movie. You should thank the heavens that there are still decision makers out there who will still take risks on films like this, it’s not like there are a lot of them. The glass should be half full just because of that.
But let’s go back to the cost issue, and the reason that’s a non-issue in this case is because we’re now dealing with an awards film. There was a time when you would see a substantial amount of revenue after a film wins Oscars, but those days are long gone. The cost rules don’t apply anymore on Award films because ROI just doesn’t exist anymore (maybe a little but it’s miniscule), it’s really becoming something that borders on Philanthropy*.
For example, let’s take a flat out box office bomb from 2019, Roma. The Vista Theater alone on One Battle After Another has already grossed more than Roma did for its entire ‘run’ in theaters (and no one watched it on the platform either), but did that bother any of you? And then Netflix spends 2x (and maybe 3x) of the $15 million production budget on an awards campaign for a movie that made no money at the box-office and didn’t work on the platform. But why don’t you care? Because Netflix plays a different game and hides all that data, but you seem to be cool with that. The reason a lot of you are cool with it is because ’that’s what Netflix does’, and the fact that they can make movies like Roma (or the upcoming Frankenstein), and then support them throughout the very expensive awards season without any financial benchmarks, well, that’s really a being patron of the Arts and it’s a good thing for the arts. But if WB takes a few chips off the table from the massive pile of chips they’ve collected this year, and makes some great art….it’s failure?
And let’s not forget about all those films this year that are good enough to play the Award Nomination game, but are more than likely to come up short when the nominations are announced. If you get stuck in that money pit, those films will have the privilege of spending between $5 million and $15 million to play that game with no ROI. Oh, and if you actually get a nomination, congrats! you get to spend another $5 million with no ROI.
If One Battle After Another was a straight up tentpole that was only made to make money, then we would be having a different conversation. And since Frankenstein was made with a budget in the same neighborhood, will you give it the same financial scrutiny you’re giving One Battle After Another when it gets released in the usual bullshit Netflix ‘theatrical’ run? Of course not, because Netflix puts their thumb on the scale to make it a non-issue. The encouraging fact here is that we’ve got decision makers who greenlight 9 figure art films, and that’s a good thing for the artists who can create such stunning works if given the opportunity. Just because one studio is being financially more honest than the other, please don’t beat them up for it.
Anyway, with the same accuracy and effectiveness of a Netflix login being ‘shared’ by a Maga account holder, here are some thoughts on the weekend box-office.
Taylor Swift - The Official Release Party of a Showgirl - As you’ve probably already heard, it’s really big today and at this point it’s looking about half of The Eras Tour. But this is a slightly different proposition, and it’s closer to a long music video than a concert film. This could fall to pieces tomorrow or it could hold up, I really have no clue. No issue being #1 though, and it could end up anywhere between $30 million and $50 million.
One Battle After Another - So far the hold looks really strong, and it’s really solid in the 70mm and Vista Vision theaters. But they lost some PLF theaters (which is pretty normal these days) and those theaters are dragging the overall hold down. Still looks really good and looking at this weekend’s 3 day gross compared to last weekend’s 5 day gross, it’s down about 45% for a gross of about $12 million. But if you look at only the 3 day vs the 3 day, it’s down only about 35%.
The Smashing Machine - I’m really rooting for A24 to succeed, they’ve been stepping up in weight class with the films they make and it would be great to have another midsize major. But today isn’t the step forward I hoped it would be. A24 has become a force by activating smart consumers looking for films with a little edge, and they’ve done an amazing job of building a dependable brand with that demo. But as we learned last year with Civil War, to really get a big gross you have to activate consumers who use their nose as a secondary breathing device, and that didn’t happen. With this film, and its massive UFC IP, plus the Dwayne Johnson IP, you would think it would look great in the markets and theaters that aren’t the normal A24 track; but this looks exactly like the A24 track. It’s great in the arty theaters in the big cities, but the grosses fall off really quickly once you get closer to the stix. If you covered up the title at the top of the gross sheet, I’d swear I was looking at the grosses for Materialists, it’s the same theaters, but only about 2/3 of the gross. This looks like $7 million, maybe $8 million for the weekend.
Avatar: The Way of Water Re-issue - Looks a little behind the re-release of Toy Story a couple of weeks ago, figure about $3 million for the weekend.
Good Boy - Went 1600 runs and the grosses in the upscale art theaters aren’t half bad, but it falls off pretty quickly. Looks like $2.5 million or so.
Anemone - The return of Daniel Day Lewis went 800 theaters, and outside of a decent gross in the Lincoln Sq NYC, there’s nothing really going on here. Looks like about $800k for the weekend.
Bone Lake - Raise your hand if you thought this would be the film with the highest Rotten Tomato score of the weekend. Not much gross here, went 100 theaters and looks like about $700k for the weekend.
- And by Philanthropy, I mean giving a shit ton of money to the Industrial Awards Complex.
Thread continued
Reply 1, the reader · 2025-10-07
Hey there, Your B.O. note this past weekend made me grin.
FYI, I’m alive, “consulting.”
I’m working with an indie financier on an arthouse title from an established filmmaker. They’re considering testing the movie, and I’d love your quick take if you have a few minutes.
No urgency - just wanted your POV if/when you come up for air.