Final weekend of September 2025
We had a shot at being even this weekend with the same weekend last year (The Wild Robot, Megalopolis), but because the new films last week were softer than expected, the downstream effect of those films will take us down about the same 5% gap we had last week. However, we’ve got another Demon Slayer showing up next weekend (TAYLOR SWIFT) to rescue us and depending on how close next weekend can get to what The Eras Tour movie did, we could double last year’s gross next weekend. What’s important to remember is that when we have a Demon Slayer or a TAYLOR SWIFT in the marketplace, we end up about 50 or 60 million ahead of last year, and when we barely miss (like this weekend and last) it’s 7 or 8 million, so those one week wonders are getting us to a pretty sizable net gain.
We’ve got something going on this weekend that’s probably good for our sector, but I’m already reading takes from our idiot entertainment press about the glass being half empty. As I pointed out a couple of weeks ago, we’ve got some films coming out this fall from Auteur filmmakers that are much more commercial than what we normally see from them. But it’s lazy to think that a director’s box-office IP isn’t part of the equation when the film opens, because that IP doesn’t change overnight.
One Battle After Another is WB’s latest #1 opening and the gross this weekend should be at the high end of what we see from this genre lately. But the press is already knocking that down saying ‘yeah, but the cost’; but where have we heard that before? Oh yeah, during the first weekend of Sinners where we saw the same cost based glass half empty approach, but then it banged out a drop of 5% the 2nd weekend (followed by a couple more rock solid holds) and ended up at $278 million domestic. So on the first weekend, even though it was a phenomenal achievement both artistically and commercially, the press was being improvident to say the least. This weekend is just the first part of this film’s journey and looking at the recent WB history, that narrative of ‘but it’s a financial loser’ is premature.
But let’s get back to IP, because IP fan-ship is what drives consumers to theaters, and that’s where there’s an upside for the sector this weekend. One of the narratives I’ve heard going into this weekend was ‘it needs to be Once Upon a Time…… in Hollywood’, but there’s no reason it should be. Paul Thomas Anderson has made some sensational films, but they haven’t been broad and commercial, and this film should change that and will probably pass his biggest domestic cume sometime next weekend. Quentin Tarantino has made some sensational films, but he’s also found a lane that has a much broader appeal commercially. But you can’t forget that he wasn’t the sole IP driver for all those successful films, he was part of an equation. When you add significant star IP to the equation, like John Travolta, Leo DiCaprio, Brad Pitt, Jamie Fox, Uma Thurman, Margot Robbie, etc; you get Kill Bill, Pulp Fiction, Inglorious Basterds, Django Unchained and Once Upon a Time. But when he depends on Kurt Russell, you get Grindhouse and Hateful Eight. The equation matters and we got slapped with a example of that last weekend on Margot Robbie’s IP with Big Bold Beautiful Journey.
So when you look at the Auteur filmmakers like PTA, he’s not going to have the same box-office IP strength that Quentin Tarantino or Christopher Nolan have. One Battle After Another might look and feel like one of those director’s films at face value, but that’s because we live in our 310/212 bubble, and Tarantino and Nolan have IP outside of NY and LA because they earned it with their films. If Oppenheimer was directed by PTA, we’d probably be seeing about the same box office result we’re seeing this weekend with One Battle. To take that idea one step further, would Inception have opened the way it did had Nolan not done the Batman movies? It takes the same time and careful choices with Director IP that is does with Actor IP, Brand IP, Genre IP or Literary IP; the consumer needs to build trust.
And that’s where the upside of this weekend lies. This is (shockingly) PTA’s first film to open wide from the start, it’s opening to #1 and just the preview grosses Wednesday and Yesterday have already outgrossed all of his 10 other opening weekends combined. If this holds up over the next couple of weeks (the exits are very good and personally I think it’s the best movie I’ve seen in a very long time), you would hope that the results of this film might get him to try to make another film that leans towards a wide opening. We need our best filmmakers to make films for more than NY and LA, and if we can get the filmmakers like PTA, Aronofsky or any given Safdie to keep making commercial films, it should be good for all of us.
Anyway, with the same expected accuracy as a Dodger win with a lead going into the 9th inning, here are some thoughts on the weekend box-office.
One Battle After Another - They had a solid opening day yesterday plus some Fan shows Wednesday night (so they chased away some tagalongs), and it’s solid today as well. Part of the sell on this film was the IMAX, 70mm and Vista Vision presentations and those theaters are leading the pack today. There is one interesting aspect (to me anyway) on the Vista Vision theaters, and it shows a weird side effect of where we are in today’s Theatrical Marketplace. The Vista in East Hollywood is sold out all weekend, however the Regal Union Square in NY is not (and it’s not because Regal has terrible branding and doesn’t put the word ‘Cinema’ or ‘Theater’ on the outside of their theaters, so you think it’s a dry cleaner) and there are seats for most of the shows this weekend. You would think that both theaters would be full already, but there’s a weird reason why Union Square still has seats (as of this writing). The Vista is selling non reserved tickets and if you drive by the theater this weekend you’ll probably see an old school line around the block; of course at the Vista people will be sitting in the front rows but they don’t know that yet. Union Square is reserved seats and the only seats available are in the front rows, so without the bait and switch of non-reserved seating, consumers are probably passing on buying tickets because of the location of the seats. Someone will probably be willing to sit there, but it’s interesting to see them available now. The numbers so far are a little behind Killers of the Flower Moon, but this film is an hour shorter (and feels 2 hours shorter), so where Flower Moon didn’t generate any business after 7pm this should play a little deeper into the night. So this should end up in the same low 20’s for the weekend, which is a big step forward for PTA.
Gabby’s Dollhouse: The Movie - This hand holder IP from Dreamworks Animation is waaaay better than it should be today, considering how young it plays and that almost all schools are in session. What that tells me that they have a really faithful fan base* (and really needed to go right away) and this might play similar to something like Smurfs did a couple of months ago; so we won’t see the usual kid bounce tomorrow we normally see this time of year. If it plays fairly normally over the weekend it should end up in the low teens, but if this is fan based and front loaded it will come in lower.
The Strangers Part 2 - Part 2 of Renny Harlin’s Horror Trilogy looks like they lost their tagalongs, and their down to only the core fanbase. It’s running about half of Part 1, so figure about $6 million for the weekend.
Eleanor the Great - The Directing debut from Scarlett Johansson went 900 theaters and outside of the art theaters in NY and LA, there’s not much going on. Looks like a weekend around $500k.
- or there’s something really adult creepy with this IP like My Little Pony.