Fourth weekend of January 2023
Congratulations to all the Oscar nominees who get this, as well as all the folks who are Oscar nominee adjacent. It’s nice to see the theatrical sector taking its rightful place as the (intended) focus of the Oscars. Hopefully by nominating films people have actually seen, instead of films that financially bludgeoned their way into the party (but no one watched, even on their own platforms) we might actually get people to watch the show this year, and we won’t be downgraded to Hulu soon.
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It will be interesting to see how the movies coming out in 2023 alter the approach for Award contenders. Based on what we’ve learned over the last couple of years (and especially recently), where a theatrical release lifts the value of a film once it gets to a platform, the idea of doing a BS release in a couple of theaters day and date with the platform, and then spending 8 figures to make it an awards contender just seems….dumb. And financially irresponsible, the ROI just isn’t there. For those of you out there who have built pools and remodeled kitchens in your 2nd vacation home because of that spend, sorry, but it was great while it lasted. With a couple of exceptions over the last two awards cycles (where films that will one day have an asterisk next to their awards), those streamer movies that financially bludgeon their way into consideration are much better at getting nominated than they are at winning. Why is that? Think of it this way, if you’re in post on a project and your music supervisor tells you they want to use a song by ‘this super hot band who has won Grammys and has millions and millions of streams’, and then they tell you a band name that you’ve never heard of (and you don’t want to seem out of touch so you nod your head and then quietly google them), you find out yes they are a big band….in Christian Rock. And then you tell your music supervisor ‘what else do you have?’ And that’s what the streamers are with their movies, the Christian Rock of the Film industry, because there’s a lower bar to success and the industry knows it, that’s why they can spend their way to a nomination, but that’s usually as far as they can get and wins are a higher bar.
Because the industry has a choice now that we’re past the shutdown period, they’ll choose the films that have cleared that higher bar. If Parasite had been a streamer with a ‘qualification’ day and date theatrical release, would it have achieved the awards it did? Same with Everything Everywhere. And flipping the idea around, if Glass Onion had gone a full theatrical release and played through the holidays in theaters, could they have picked off a couple of those acting spots as well as a Best Pic Nom (and been infinitely more valuable on the platform)? Looking at both Glass Onion and Everything Everywhere, seeing it in a theater is a much better entertainment experience than watching it on TV, so it’s not a surprise that one got a haul and one got a taste this week. Of course, you might say ‘but most of the voters watch these on TV anyway on the apps, how does it make a difference?’ Two answers to that; first voters are still movie people and still go to the movies, so if Glass Onion was only in theaters through Christmas, and then dropped on the Academy app just before Christmas when they traditionally do, a lot more voters would have seen it in a theater, and would have had a better experience. Second, as a voter, are you more likely to watch something on the app when it’s exclusive to a theater, or are you going to watch the film that all of your civilian friends can watch on their civilian platforms?
Look at something like Andrea Riseborough in To Leslie, did it break through because it wasn’t available on a streamer, and got watched because it wasn’t held down by the label of ‘Christian Rock’ ’Streamer’? Exclusivity matters. Speaking of To Leslie, how hilarious is it to watch the Industrial Award Complex lose their collective minds over that nomination? ‘You mean, you don’t need us?’ ’They’re Cheating!’ As someone who never would have watched the film had it not become a thing, once I watched it I completely understood why people stood up for it, that performance completely delivers. And just because none of the film makers could afford to build one of you a pool for your 2nd vacation home doesn’t mean it shouldn’t get nominated. Stop the whining just because you didn’t get to wet your beak in the campaign. However, it will be super interesting to see how the trades, who are a massive part of the Industrial Awards Complex, handle this. Seems like they should just recuse themselves.
As we move forward, these next couple of years are going to be crucial to the business. But what’s amazing to me is that when the streamers came along 10 or so years ago, their battle cry was ‘we’re gonna be different, and we’re not gonna do things a certain way because that’s the way we’ve always done it’. Now that the pandemic forced us to test a bunch of different ways to distribute movies, and it’s clear exclusively theatrical runs pay off both financially and culturally, should the streamer’s battle cry be ‘because this is the way we’ve always done it’?
Anyway, with the accuracy and the efficacy of all those expensive award campaigns that yielded zero, but built some of you a pool at your 2nd vacation home, here are some thoughts on the weekend box-office.
Avatar: The Way of Water - Since there’s nothing big opening this weekend, everything is gonna hold up nicely. This should be down about 20% and end up in the high mid teens.
Puss in Boots: Last Wish - One of the things that’s great about theatrical, if you have the only kids movie or the only comedy in the market, you’ll keep holding in there week after week. Probably down less than 20% again this weekend for a gross at or just below 10.
A Man Called Otto - Same thing as Puss in Boots, it’s the only comedy and people will come to the movies if they think they’re gonna laugh. Of course, it’s still interesting how some out of the box thinking (the way it was released) made this good movie about a dull guy a hit. But by doing the ‘same thing we always do’ with another good movie about a dull guy, The Fabelmans, yielded very little at the box office. Down 20% for a weekend of 7 or so.
Missing - Not terrible for this genre, down 50% for a weekend in the mid 4’s.
Pathaan - Another tentpole from Bollywood (had the biggest opening day in India for a Hindi language film) is doing some business here. It opened Wednesday and already has $2.7 million in the bank, looks like about $5 million for the weekend, bringing the 5 day to a little less than $8 million.
Infinity Pool - This Horror film from Neon is doing what Horror films from Neon generally do, about $3 million.
Billie Eilish: Live from the O2 - Really good pre sales for this one day event. Looks like maybe $1.5 million on about 600 screens.
Left Behind: The Rise of the AntiChrist - Went 1300 runs and had some decent presales, but has been pretty flat since. Looks like about $2 million for the weekend.
Fear - Went a little less than 1000 runs and looks like 700 or 800k for the weekend.
Close - This Oscar Nominee went the classic 4 runs in LA and NY and looks pretty good. However the NY runs are considerably better than the LA runs. Figure a psa in the high teens.