Fourth weekend of September 2020
It’s a super quiet weekend as far as new films, not much really going on (next weekend too). However, I thought I’d weigh in on the recent release schedule changes and how things look going forward. Now that Disney has moved some things around, there’s a pretty clear path to the theatrical sector getting back to some sort of normalcy.
It was a pipe dream to think a major studio (or anyone else) would drop a major release with a $30 million campaign into the market now, with NY’s opening depending on whether Cuomo sees his shadow on any given morning, SF can’t quite get open and LA just can’t seem to stop with the house parties. However, it looks like there’s a shot of LA opening on the 9th of October, and you would think that NY would be open very soon too. Because there’s a shot all the major markets being open In a couple of weeks, we have a couple of films being released that would be 2nd or 3rd tier releases on any normal weekend; but it’s a good thing because we need to show that even though it’s only a 2nd tier movie, it’s still going to do what it would have done pre Covid. Of course the Exhibitors are already whining that they need ‘big’ movies or they’re going to have to close, but since they haven’t done a very good job of showing governments that they are a safe entertainment destination, it’s kind of like the kid who kills their parents and then asks you to pity them because they’re an orphan.
Starting 2 weeks from today, we have about 6 weeks of films that aren’t A grade films, but should have fairly robust and close to ’normal’ campaigns; and that should give the studios with the A movies some comfort, unless we have some virus related setbacks. Looking at Canada, Asia and some European markets, it takes a couple of weeks for consumers to know that going to a movie is an option again before the business is really back. So, patience, we’ll get there. And hopefully by mid/late November we’ll see some really nice numbers coming out of theaters.
Only a couple of movies worth talking about:
Break the Silence: The Movie - This BTS live movie (a hugely popular Korean Boy Band if you don’t have kids) is doing some really nice business on about 500 screens, and there are grosses that are pretty good. Of course with a film like this there’s a lot of pre sales and it doesn’t look like it’s growing much. Unless it really falls apart tomorrow (very possible) figure it ends up where a lot of these teen girl movies have ended up in the post Covid era.
Kajillionaire - This Sundance favorite from this year opened in about 500 theaters and looks decent in the upscale theaters that are open. Of course the issue with all of these upscale films is the gross would be a lot better if NY, SF and LA were open. Hopefully with a 88% Rotten Tomatoes score, it will hang in for a while till the better markets are open.