Second weekend of August 2019

Scary Stories to Tell in the Dark

 It’s the beginning of the end of Summer this weekend, a lot of K-12 schools
start back up Monday and next Friday only a little more than 50% of K-12
will still be on Vacation.  We may get close to being even with the same
weekend last year, but it will probably be up to the holdover on Hobbs and
Shaw to get there, otherwise we’ll be down a little.  So, with the accuracy
normally associated with the assessment of any NFL team after one preseason
game, here’s my best take on the weekend box-office.
#1* Fast & Furious presents Hobbs & Shaw featuring George Kennedy as
Petrone* - Why do they call this series ‘Fast & Furious’?  Because that’s
the pace it drops on the 2nd weekend (rimshot). Right now it looks like
it’s going to be down the usual 55% - 60% for a gross in the mid 20’s.
However, if this wobbles off those numbers and Scary Stories goes on a
roll, this might end up in 2nd place.
#2 Scary Stories to Tell in the Dark - IP (and Star Power) rules in the
theatrical sector these days, and this film is based on a very popular YA
book.  Got off to a great start today and it looks good for a weekend in
the very low 20’s right now.  However, this genre can really get going at
night and if it does I wouldn’t rule out a #1 finish.
#3 The Lion King - The holdovers on this film have been pretty
underwhelming and today is in line with the previous weeks.  Just okay (if
that) at about -50%, for a weekend in the high teens.
#4* Dora and the Lost City of Gold* - Another family skewing film from
Walden Media that didn’t really measure up, and I did find the marketing
tie in with ICE particularly tone deaf (the copy line was ‘kids go free’).
It’s about the same gross as Paramount’s recent family film Wonder Park
(which grossed $15 million for the weekend), but that film only had 25% of
K-12 out that day and there are 88% of K-12 out today, so this should be
waaaay ahead right now if it’s going to end up the same.  Figure this is
right behind it at $13 or $14 million.
#5 Once Upon a Time…… in Hollywood - Down another 50% for a weekend at
about $10 million.
#6 The Art of Racing in the Rain - Another example of why Rupert was
eager to sell, this best selling book for people who thought Marley and Me
was way too much of an ‘up’ experience doesn’t look like it’s even going to
get to the low range of the recent epidemic of ‘talking dog who dies in the
end’ films.  Looks somewhere around $9 million to me.
#7 The Kitchen - In a great example of how tough theatrical can be
because of the 18 month time lag between green light and opening day, this
package of Melissa McCarthy and Tiffany Haddish probably looked great when
they green lit it.  Not so much right now though, and a very low RT score
certainly didn’t help.   Looks like 6 or 7 for the weekend.
Brian Banks - Only on 1200 screens, looks like 2 or 3 for the weekend.
The Peanut Butter Falcon - This road trip film about a man on the run who
befriends a mentally challenged kid (featuring an actor with real life
mental deficiencies*) opened exclusive in 7 markets (NY, LA, SLC,
Charlotte, Austin, Dallas and Denver).  Outside of the Arclight Hollywood
where the actors are doing a Q & A, it’s fair to poor.  Figure a PSA of 12
or 13K for the weekend.
After the Wedding - Opened exclusive in NY and LA in the classic 4 plus
the Cinema 1 on the UES.  NY is a lot better than LA right now, looks like
a PSA in the mid/high teens.

but of course Shia Labeouf needs no introduction.