First weekend of August 2019
It’s the last weekend of the Summer with a ‘big’ title although I think the expected size of the film opening today shows some typical laziness on the part of the industry. We’ll probably be down a little from last year, but only a little bit. So, based on something I heard from Marianne Williamson’s talking bamboo plant, here’s my best take on the weekend box-office.
#1 Fast & Furious Presents Twins 2019 Hobbs and Shaw - If you leave your windows open tonight and listen very carefully, you can probably hear a drunken Vin Diesel shouting at the moon ‘you see, I wasn’t the problem, they’re the fucking problem…..and my quote just went up……fuckers’. There was some of the usual half baked industry logic going on around town that by telling moviegoers that this was Fast & Furious, it would gross like Fast & Furious; with maybe a tiny haircut because of no Vin Diesel, since he doesn’t have any fans…..right? So I’m sure there will be another round of articles written about the demise of theatrical. But, this makes complete sense when you consider all the elements. Since they took half the star power out of this film from your standard issue (non-memorial) Fast & Furious film, they also took out half the fan base that comes to see those actors/characters, so you end up with half the gross. Right now this looks like it’s gonna end up somewhere in the low 50’s, or about half the $98 million Fate of the Furious opened to. When you consider how hard you have to squint to think this is a Fast & Furious movie and realize its more of a Dwayne Johnson* movie, this gross comes in at the very top of what he’s generated in the past, and you realize it’s a pretty good opening. There are those of you who will point out that this gross isn’t enough considering how much they spent making it (and who knows how much of that budget went into boxes for actors to stand on), but there’s an old cliche in the Real Estate Business that ‘there is no bad Real Estate, only bad prices’. The same goes with movies, there aren’t bad movies, only bad budgets.
Once upon a time…..in Hollywood - Just okay today, and those exit polls that were more in line with Hateful Eight than Django Unchained are manifesting themselves today. Because they had a slightly outsized Thursday night gross last week, they are starting 14% down this weekend and should finish down about 60% for a gross of about $16 or $17 million.
Luce - Went exclusive NY/LA in the classic 4 plus the Drafthouse Brooklyn and it’s very good today. Looks like a PSA in the mid 30’s.
The Nightingale - Went exclusive NY/LA in the Arclight Hollywood and the IFC NY. The Arclight is very good and the IFC is pretty good (for the IFC). Figure a PSA of about $30k.
- Don’t even start on the Jason Stratham thing, he’s a good actor but box-office wise he’s the little paper cup of cole slaw that comes with the sandwich. Pleasant and good but if it wasn’t there you wouldn’t miss it.