The Super Mario Bros. Movie
Animation & Family Universal PG 1h 32m Released Apr 5, 2023 Discussed 2023–2026
Opening weekend
$146.4M
4,343 theaters
Per-theater average
$33,701
opening weekend
Domestic total
$574.9M
3.9× its opening
Worldwide total
$1.36B
42% domestic
Production budget
$100.0M
13.6× worldwide
RT critics
59%
RT audience
95%
+36 vs critics
Metacritic
46
Where it turns up
Wednesday, April 5, 2023 Super Mario's Wednesday, April 2023
On the chart Super Mario Bros. Movie (Wednesday day): ~$31M implied opening day
Expected 'It's looking like a day in the high 20's' Actual: ~$31M implied by the five-day arithmetic
In the note
Just a quick recap about Wednesday openings before I jump back onto my Surfboard, but I feel that moviegoing these days is such a ’social’ activity (if you’re into seeing a particular movie, you invite people to go with you), and I’m concerned that when you don’t open a film on a day where tagalongs are more likely to go with you, the consumers fall out of the purchase funnel and don’t come back. The Super Mario Brothers Movie - This is the film that I’m the most curious about.
Friday, April 7, 2023 Easter weekend 2023
On the chart Super Mario Bros. (3-day / 5-day): $146.4M / $204.6M
Expected 'About $130 million for the 3 days and a sensational $190 million for the 5 days' Actual: $146.4M / $204.6M
In the note
But as we look at what's going on today, compared to what was going on two years ago, it changes so stay tuned. Anyway, based on a dream I had after drinking too much Kava, here are some thoughts on the weekend box-office. The Super Mario Brothers Movie - This is a monster today, and it's been interesting to see how the tide is lifting all boats, as usual.
Friday, April 21, 2023 Third weekend of April 2023
On the chart Super Mario Bros. (wk 3): $59.9M, -35%
Expected 'Should be down another 40% (or maybe a little less) for another great weekend in the mid/high 50's' Actual: $59.9M, -35%
In the note
Another step forward at the Box Office this weekend. One more film made for a platform has wandered it’s way into theatrical (and will create some serious revenue), plus we’re about 38% ahead of 2022’s cume going into this week (and only about 15% behind 2019), and we’re gonna have a weekend total that will blow away the same week from last year and end up a little ahead of 2019. And considering that films take about 2 years to come to theaters once they get to the green light stage, and 2 years ago we were just seeing the effect of the vaccine, these results should be just the beginning. Occasionally I’ll write something here that touches a nerve, and it was interesting to see the responses two weeks ago about the difference in stress between opening a film theatrically and opening a film on a platform. There was a decent amount of responses that supported both sides, and clearly when a film didn’t work theatrically there was much more pain than when a film didn’t work on a platform. But the main theme of what you told me was they are just different ideas and as you make your deals, you should understand exactly what you’re getting into. But I also hear one term over and over again, resonance, and the flip side of that reduced pain when your film doesn't work on a platform is the silence when your film hits big on a platform, and you don't get the 'victory lap' weekend you get when a film hits theatrically (plus the 2nd, 3rd and 4th weekends you can get if it really hits). As we’ve talked about here, as much as streaming movies have talked about the goal of living for a while after they drop, they just seem to fade away so quickly. And many of you have told me how that fade, combined with the murky reporting of viewership on the platform, has mixed influence on your next quote. The only platform releases that have any legs are the awards contenders, but as we’ve heard, no one is watching those on the platform so it’s not like anything happening there can goose your quote. Looking at those leggy awards contenders (as I said a couple of weeks ago) is kind of like self publishing your book, and it’s a loser from a ROI point of view, so it will be interesting to see how long they want to play that game. Of course, it’s possible (maybe probable) that the Academy will close the loopholes that allow it to happen, so this idea might self-deport. A couple of you reached out to me when Netflix did their earnings call this week, and based on what I heard I should make one thing really clear. I’m not anti-Netflix, I have a lot of friends over there that I’m rooting for, I just worry about their approach to movies in the long run. As they became a Wall Street darling (and still are for the most part) most everyone was trying to copy their approach, and that concerned me. Of course, the pandemic made all of that make sense at the time (at least to everyone else but me). Now, we’ve learned so much about what works and what doesn’t, everyone else has pivoted to models that understand the power of multiple revenue streams; so my attitude towards Netflix is ‘you do you’. But I am pro Industry, and I want them to continue to make movies because they’ve built a massive machine over there and have employed a lot of people; and movies that cost 9 figures generate a whole lot more jobs (and better paying jobs) than streamer budgets of 7 figures. The problem is I can’t see them continue to make films for 9 figures that get labeled as ‘a streamer’, the long term value of those movies just doesn't feel bright to me. All those other studios pivoted away from a straight to platform model (for expensive films) because the numbers don’t add up. So the main reason I’m rooting for them to see the multiple revenues/theatrical light is that I want to see all those friends of mine continue to be employed. Many of you have told me your theories about why they are resistant to a theatrical model, everything from an addiction to the phrase ’disruptor’ (probably not), to a fear of giving any sort of backend (makes more sense, and that would sync with their lack of reporting numbers). So yes, there's a lot less stress when you open something on a platform; but do you trade that stress for a different stress when you do your next deal, and will there be even more stress if one of the buyers decides it's not worth it anymore and taps out? Anyway, with the expected accuracy and dependability of Frank Ocean and Kawhi Leonard’s new ride hailing service Wheel C, here are some thoughts on the weekend box-office. The Super Mario Brothers Movie - Still looking great today, should be down another 40% (or maybe a little less) for another great weekend in the mid/high 50’s. Evil Dead Rise - Back in January, WB decided to dip their toe in the theatrical waters with a film made for the HBO Max platform with House Party.
Friday, April 28, 2023 Fourth weekend of April 2023
On the chart Super Mario Bros. (wk 4): $40.8M, -32%
Expected 'Still solid at a drop of -40% and a weekend in the mid 30's' Actual: $40.8M, -32%
In the note
Whenever there’s a tentpole opening this time of year, the weekend before tends to be a little light new release wise, because there’s so much noise going on, the 2nd week can turn into a ‘one and done’ situation. For example, last year because Doctor Strange was opening the first weekend in May, we only saw one wide release; and it was another step in the Liam Neeson parade of sadness, Memory, grossing $3.1 million. And because it’s all about the depth of the roster, the combination of the stronger holdovers this weekend and better new releases we’ll pad our lead on 2022 once again this weekend. With Guardians 3 opening next weekend, the light weekend this weekend is pretty normal. As far as 2019, Avengers Endgame opened the last week in April at $357 million, so, yeah, we’ll be a little behind that. But as an example of how the ‘weekend before a tentpole’ effect is real, the weekend before Endgame opened was Good Friday/Easter weekend (and as you know it’s a great box office weekend), yet we only had one genre opening, The Curse of La Liarona. As many of you know this was CinemaCon week, which can be a nice tool to launch marketing ideas if the mainstream press picks it up. However, more than likely they don’t and it can be a massive waste of money. I think the biggest waste of money this time went to Universal, who spent (gods knows how much) money to equip the room (where Adele is currently performing) to show a 4 minute clip of Oppenheimer in 70mm. And when Christopher Nolan introduced the clip, he decided the 70mm presentation wasn’t worth mentioning. Ughh. Why is that important? If Oppenhiemer was a film that clearly was going to dominate its weekend, like your garden variety Marvel film, there's no issue. But it's on a really competitive weekend, and I'm not sure it will even win its weekend. Since Nolan really wants those 70mm and 35mm prints out there, and that equipment is always in the biggest theater in the multiplex, wouldn't he want to show the exhibitors how much better it looks and sounds on film in order to secure those big theaters? (and he did, they just didn't know it) As we all know, the exhibitors are pretty whore-ish and wherever the money is, they'll follow, so this was a massive missed opportunity to secure those bigger theaters. It’s no secret (because of the platform wars going on) that there is A LOT of content out there these days, every time you see some friends and talk about what you’re watching, content comes up that you’ve never even heard of and everyone is watching something different. Which reminds me of a joke. So a guy walks into a Museum with a fast rising Movie Star, a fast rising Linear TV Star and a fast rising Streaming Series Star. Actually it's not an old joke, the guy is me and this actually happened. I spent an afternoon wandering around a Museum with 3 Actors, all fast rising with substantial notoriety but from different branches of content distribution. People would walk up to the Movie Star and ask for a selfie, people would walk up to the Linear TV Star and ask for a selfie and people would walk up to the Streaming Star and ask for a selfie; but what was interesting is that they payed zero, I mean zero attention to the other two Actors. This seemed like a really good example of what the fan ship Venn diagram looks like, you’re into what you’re into, but outside of what you’re into other actors are ‘oh yeah, that guy’. So for those of you that are in the flesh peddling Agent/Manager side of the biz, maybe the idea of your clients spending some time in the other branch of distribution isn’t terrible. However, there’s a trap here. There’s a massive difference between the effort it takes to get a consumer to the movies versus what it takes to get them to switch on the channel/app at home. You might consider rationing talent you want to matter theatrically when they do TV, not passing it, but rationing it. We’re seeing a decent amount of top shelf stars who worked a little too much in TV during the shutdown, and then struggled to generate the same theatrical value they did before the shutdown. You actually hear it around town all the time now, ‘movie stars don’t matter anymore’, okay but is it because most of them became TV stars over the last 3 years? And a lot of those stars who had a work cadence of a movie a year and maybe two, did 3 or 4 streaming projects a year recently. Of course, because of the arms race going on to dominate the platform business, the paychecks were definitely there so it's not like everyone was working because they were bored, they were getting the bag over and over again (I would have done the same thing). But there’s a long term effect to taking that money, and now that theatrical’s revenue stream is back in fashion, nothing is going to happen overnight. And the reason you’ll need patience is those movies that work theatrically eventually wander to linear TV and streamers, so the consumer who doesn’t go to the movies but watches a lot on the streamers, won’t ignore the movie star when they approach their streamer Actor friend for a selfie. Anyway, with the expected accuracy of all the NFL fans that are planning on a Super Bowl win based on last night's Draft, but don't realize it's the same thing as counting on a big box office weekend based on your first wave of tracking (I'm looking at you, Eagles fans), here are some thoughts on the weekend box office. The Super Mario Brothers Movie - Still solid at a drop of -40% and a weekend in the mid 30’s. Evil Dead Rise - It’s actually a little better than a 2nd weekend horror drop right now, but it’s still a horror movie and should drop about 55% for a weekend of about 11 million. Are You There God? It’s Me Margaret - It’s going to be interesting to see where this goes over the weekend, the book this was based on is a ‘bible’ for females, and that’s normal for a period piece like this.
Friday, May 5, 2023 First weekend of May 2023
On the chart Super Mario Bros. (wk 5): $18.6M, -55%
Expected 'A drop of about 45% and a weekend in the low 20's': having lost every large-format screen Actual: $18.6M, -55%
In the note
But the gross makes perfect sense to me and this is by no means a disappointment. The Super Mario Brothers Movie - They lost all their large format theaters, so they’ll drop more than they have been lately.
Friday, May 12, 2023 Mother's Day weekend 2023
On the chart Super Mario Bros. (wk 6): $12.6M, -32%
Expected 'Figure down 30% and a weekend in the low teens' Actual: $12.6M, -32%
In the note
Maybe a little better if they get a decent Mother’s Day bounce on Sunday. The Super Mario Brothers Movie - Looking solid today, and should benefit a little from Mother’s Day as well.
Friday, June 23, 2023 Fourth weekend of June 2023
In the note
Figure it’s down only about 40% for a weekend of about $17 million. Elemental - Disney/Pixar took another big risk with this film, making a film that was pretty intellectual (and maybe a little homework-y) in a market where the big grossing films are coming out of Illumination and other populist IP’s like Sonic and Mario Brothers.
Friday, July 21, 2023 Barbenheimer weekend 2023
In the note
First, there's probably a really nice case of Champagne being delivered to Lankershim Blvd from WB, thanking them for opening Super Mario Brothers on a Wednesday (which, as good as that film did, left some money on the table.
Friday, November 17, 2023 Third weekend of November 2023
In the note
We’re slowly clawing back from that, and we've seen zero hesitation from the family audience to attend in droves with other IP's (such as Mario Brothers) but at this point I’m thinking that the 'at home' experience of this particular IP might have shifted the desire to see this in a theater.
Friday, March 29, 2024 Easter weekend 2024
In the note
But even though we’re gonna get crushed next weekend (it was Good Friday and….um…Super Mario Brothers….), we’ll take these wins and smile. One of the things I hear over and over again from a lot of you is ‘where are the next theatrical movie stars coming from?’ Clearly the movie star thing has been complicated since the pandemic, when a lot of bankable theatrical stars took the bag and did a lot of work that didn’t end up in theaters (and because of the size of that bag, you can’t really blame them).
Friday, April 5, 2024 First weekend of April 2024
In the note
Although we had a surprisingly good couple of weeks (thanks to Legendary and WB), and we’re only about 9% behind 2023, this was an outlier weekend last year because of Super Mario Brothers, John Wick and Air so we’ll be way behind this year (we'll be about half of last year).
Friday, April 12, 2024 Second weekend of April 2024
In the note
As I pointed out last week, the new films will contribute about the same gross as last year (Pope’s Exorcist, Renfield, Suzume added up to about $23 million) but Super Mario Brothers grossed $92.3 million last year on this weekend.
Friday, April 19, 2024 Third weekend of April 2024
In the note
The total for all the films this weekend will be about the same as last year if you don’t count Super Mario Brothers, and we don’t have a Super Mario Brothers this year.
Friday, April 26, 2024 Fourth weekend of April 2024
In the note
This weekend is playing out just a little better than I expected, and the new films should generate a little more than double the gross of what the new films did this weekend last year (Are You There God, It’s Me Margaret, Sisu, Big George Foreman), however we’re (once again) missing that $40 million that Super Mario Brothers contributed last year, so we’ll still be about 20% behind last year.
Friday, May 3, 2024 First weekend of May 2024
In the note
The week after that might be competitive too, so any of these weeks where we can stay close to last year is good, but we’ll still have the juggernauts from last year like Super Mario and Barbenheimer which will put us behind.
Friday, July 12, 2024 Second weekend of July 2024
In the note
Just like we saw in spring 2023 where Super Mario Brothers kept the box-office high week after week; the one two punch of Despicable Me and Inside Out 2 are still making significant weekly contributions.
Friday, April 24, 2026 Fourth weekend of April 2026
Expected Both with drops in the 30s% Actual: PHM -37%; Mario -44%