First weekend of April 2024
Although we had a surprisingly good couple of weeks (thanks to Legendary and WB), and we’re only about 9% behind 2023, this was an outlier weekend last year because of Super Mario Brothers, John Wick and Air so we’ll be way behind this year (we’ll be about half of last year). Looking at the next couple of weeks, the new titles will probably be about the same this year as they were last year, so the main difference will be that Super Mario Brothers gross week after week. But this is the way it’s gonna be all year, unless we find some unexpected gems later in the release schedule.
I don’t really have anything to say today, and it’s mostly spring break this week so most of you are out and about and probably won’t read this anyway.
Anyway, with the accuracy normally associated with an east coaster saying ‘yeah, you out there on the west coast have to deal with all those earthquakes’, here are some thoughts on the weekend box-office.
*Godzilla x Kong: A New Empire *- We’re seeing the normal Good Friday to Friday after Good Friday drop, but even though it will have a big drop today from last week, it should right itself tomorrow. Figure this has a normal post Good Friday drop in the low 60% range for a weekend of around $30 million.
Monkey Man - This well reviewed rags to riches story (which followed a similar rags to riches path to get where it is in the theatrical sector) ended up with a robust Theatrical release thanks to Jordan Peele and Universal. They had a really nice night last night and the numbers looked great this morning, but it’s gone super flat since then and it’s really top heavy in the big coastal cities. Since the first trailer dropped here I was wondering if this would play to the same Bollywood audiences that we’ve seen come out in droves for films like RRR. But where this is doing business looks nothing like RRR, and the lineup of top theaters looks like a normal action film. But as you look at the theaters doing business here, very few (if any) of those theaters that soar for Bollywood films are turning out big numbers. Having seen this movie, which is pretty tough on the Indian political power scene and doesn’t paint India in a very flattering light, that could be a factor and those consumers are voting with their wallets. If that group of consumers had turned out in the same numbers they turn out in for the bigger Bollywood titles, we would easily be looking like the mid teen weekend that a $1.4 million preview normally indicates. This looks more like 10 or 11 for the weekend, but considering what this film is, that’s a pretty good gross.
The First Omen - Unfortunately, today is 4/5/24, and because it’s 4/5/24 today, this reboot/prequel edition of the classic horror IP is just okay; because the IP here has always been tied into a date that leans into the IP. The first film opened on 6/6/76 and was a hit. The remake opened on 6/6/06, which opened to $12.6 million on a Tuesday, and that shows you how much Fox understood what made this IP tick. BTW, the 2nd film cumed at a 4 multiple off that Tuesday (the first weekend was only $15 million), so that alone tells you how this IP lives or dies of release date gimmicks. It’s been following the path of The Pope’s Exorcist so far, so figure it ends up around $9 million for the weekend. Pro Tip: if there’s another dip into this IP, maybe hold it until 6/6/26.
Someone Like You - Fathom is now dipping their toe into distribution and they went 1800 runs. Looks like $2 million or maybe a little better.
The rest of the holdovers are down a decent amount today, but that has more to do with last Friday being so good. But they should bounce back tomorrow and we should see a slightly worse than average drop for the weekend, with most of them dropping in the 40% range.