Third weekend of April 2023

Another step forward at the Box Office this weekend. One more film made for a platform has wandered it’s way into theatrical (and will create some serious revenue), plus we’re about 38% ahead of 2022’s cume going into this week (and only about 15% behind 2019), and we’re gonna have a weekend total that will blow away the same week from last year and end up a little ahead of 2019. And considering that films take about 2 years to come to theaters once they get to the green light stage, and 2 years ago we were just seeing the effect of the vaccine, these results should be just the beginning.

Occasionally I’ll write something here that touches a nerve, and it was interesting to see the responses two weeks ago about the difference in stress between opening a film theatrically and opening a film on a platform. There was a decent amount of responses that supported both sides, and clearly when a film didn’t work theatrically there was much more pain than when a film didn’t work on a platform. But the main theme of what you told me was they are just different ideas and as you make your deals, you should understand exactly what you’re getting into.

But I also hear one term over and over again, resonance, and the flip side of that reduced pain when your film doesn’t work on a platform is the silence when your film hits big on a platform, and you don’t get the ‘victory lap’ weekend you get when a film hits theatrically (plus the 2nd, 3rd and 4th weekends you can get if it really hits). As we’ve talked about here, as much as streaming movies have talked about the goal of living for a while after they drop, they just seem to fade away so quickly. And many of you have told me how that fade, combined with the murky reporting of viewership on the platform, has mixed influence on your next quote. The only platform releases that have any legs are the awards contenders, but as we’ve heard, no one is watching those on the platform so it’s not like anything happening there can goose your quote. Looking at those leggy awards contenders (as I said a couple of weeks ago) is kind of like self publishing your book, and it’s a loser from a ROI point of view, so it will be interesting to see how long they want to play that game. Of course, it’s possible (maybe probable) that the Academy will close the loopholes that allow it to happen, so this idea might self-deport.

A couple of you reached out to me when Netflix did their earnings call this week, and based on what I heard I should make one thing really clear. I’m not anti-Netflix, I have a lot of friends over there that I’m rooting for, I just worry about their approach to movies in the long run. As they became a Wall Street darling (and still are for the most part) most everyone was trying to copy their approach, and that concerned me. Of course, the pandemic made all of that make sense at the time (at least to everyone else but me). Now, we’ve learned so much about what works and what doesn’t, everyone else has pivoted to models that understand the power of multiple revenue streams; so my attitude towards Netflix is ‘you do you’.

But I am pro Industry, and I want them to continue to make movies because they’ve built a massive machine over there and have employed a lot of people; and movies that cost 9 figures generate a whole lot more jobs (and better paying jobs) than streamer budgets of 7 figures. The problem is I can’t see them continue to make films for 9 figures that get labeled as ‘a streamer’, the long term value of those movies just doesn’t feel bright to me. All those other studios pivoted away from a straight to platform model (for expensive films) because the numbers don’t add up. So the main reason I’m rooting for them to see the multiple revenues/theatrical light is that I want to see all those friends of mine continue to be employed. Many of you have told me your theories about why they are resistant to a theatrical model, everything from an addiction to the phrase ’disruptor’ (probably not), to a fear of giving any sort of backend (makes more sense, and that would sync with their lack of reporting numbers).

So yes, there’s a lot less stress when you open something on a platform; but do you trade that stress for a different stress when you do your next deal, and will there be even more stress if one of the buyers decides it’s not worth it anymore and taps out?

Anyway, with the expected accuracy and dependability of Frank Ocean and Kawhi Leonard’s new ride hailing service Wheel C, here are some thoughts on the weekend box-office.

The Super Mario Brothers Movie - Still looking great today, should be down another 40% (or maybe a little less) for another great weekend in the mid/high 50’s.

Evil Dead Rise - Back in January, WB decided to dip their toe in the theatrical waters with a film made for the HBO Max platform with House Party. They didn’t spend much money and they were pretty happy with the revenues it produced ($9 million domestic). They spent a little more money on Magic Mike’s Last Dance and got an even better result ($26 million domestic). After the Evil Dead Rise trailer dropped back in January and got a lot of attention, it was full go and the results today are pretty terrific. Similar to what we’ve been seeing from Paramount (Smile, 80 for Brady), just because something was greenlit for the platform doesn’t mean it’s locked into that lane. Just like all films in this genre, the real action happens tonight but I don’t see a scenario where this doesn’t get to $20 million, and if it grows similar to another reboot like Candyman did last August, it’s mid 20’s. But this release is going to make WB a lot more money than they would have made had it gone straight to MAX.

Guy Richie’s The Covenant - Following up on my rant last week about branding, here’s a film that is very good (80% critics and 96% audience on RT), had a solid campaign, spent good money and had a good release date; but has a terrible title and that branding issue is holding it down. Most American moviegoers will look at this title and think it’s about Nuns, so no matter how good everything else is, why would anyone want to go see Guy Richie’s take on Nuns? This only opened today in the US (no Canada), so because of that it’s about 10% less than a film opening north of the border with the US. Right now it looks like a weekend of about $5 or $6 million. But when everything is good but the title, this is one more example of ’the movie business is hard’.

Beau is Afraid - They expanded to a little less than 1000 screens after last week’s exceptional exclusive run, and as you would expect from a 3 hour art film, the grosses are pretty good in the sophisticated theaters and fall off pretty fast as you get out into the burbs. Looks like about $2.5 million for the weekend.

Chevalier - Searchlight went 1200 theaters with the exceptionally reviewed period piece, and with 5 star exit polls and strong reviews, but zero star or IP fanship; I’m not sure this warranted going wide right away. The grosses in the big city art houses are much higher than the garden variety megaplexes, but everything is at a low level. It’s an idea that isn’t for the faint of heart (because it’s so expensive) but it’s possible this film could have benefited from an old school Searchlight rollout. Right now, it’s looking like a weekend at about $1.2 million.