Fourth weekend of August 2024

Gran Turismo, The Hill, Retribution

 It’s the time of year when we usually hit the release schedule doldrums;
the average total gross for films opening the weekend before Labor Day adds
up to about $20 million, and the new films we’ve got this weekend will
probably sum up to a number similar to that average.  But because we’ve got
a much stronger trifecta of holdovers in our quiver, we’ll have another
weekend where we’ll soundly beat last year’s total (Gran Turismo, The
Hill, Retribution).   We’ll take a step back next week, because Equalizer
3 opened on Labor Day last year, but we should have a really good
September and dig a little more out of the hole we got into at the
beginning of the year. We’ve also got schools going back now, only about
1/3 of grade school kids are out today, and Colleges are about halfway
back.
In today’s edition of ‘nothing ever changes’…… there was a famous Variety
headline back in the 30’s that said something like ‘Hicks Nix Pix in Stix’,
which when you translate Variety into English meant ‘Hollywood is only
making movies for the big cities and they are ignoring middle America’.
And as legend has it, Hollywood realized they needed to make movies that
were broader, and the common phrase that evolved was ‘but will it play in
Peoria?’
We’ve got 3 films opening wide today; two films that are playing hottest on
the coasts (and especially LA), and a faith based film that’s playing much
better in the Red States; and the Red State film has more money in the till
than the either of the Blue State skewing films, as least right now (with
only 2/3 of the screens).  Of course, Faith Based films tend to be a little
hotter with group pre-sales so they are a little faster out of the gate,
but what’s a little more interesting is how Los Angeles and New York City
is head and shoulders above the rest of the country on the two Blue state
movies.  Even markets that should behave similarly to LA and NY aren’t as
good, so once again I’m asking the question ‘are we only making movies for
people we know?*’.
Anyway, with the accuracy normally associated with Starbucks carbon offset
program, here are some thoughts about the weekend box-office.
Alien: Romulus - Pretty normal 2nd weekend for a Horror/Sci-Fi film of
this size, should be down about 55% for a weekend in the very high teens.
Deadpool & Wolverine - Considering we’re pivoting back to a non school
holiday period, this is about right today where it should be, down about
45% for a weekend in the mid/high teens.
It Ends With Us - Down a decent amount today, but considering its core
audience is back in school, that makes sense.  Looks down about 50% for a
weekend of about 11.
Blink Twice - The grosses here are pretty interesting, the grosses in LA
and NY are pretty good, much better than the rest of the country and they
fall off pretty quickly once you get past the most upscale situations; but
not only does the gross fall off, but it drops in rank compared to the
other films in the complex.  Normally the conversation would immediately go
to ‘well the marketing must have been an issue’, but no, the campaign and
the muscle behind the campaign was everything you could ask for.  So why is
this movie grossing like a $12 million weekend in NY and LA and like a $6
million movie everywhere else?  It’s about a billionaire sexual predator,
and perhaps that idea doesn’t sound like a fun night out for areas outside
of NY and LA, especially when you have to issue a trigger warning
pre-release. The fact that it is doing well in NY and LA is …..weird, and
maybe the exhibitors should have leaned into the skew of the movie with a
special popcorn bucket that says ’does this popcorn smell like chloroform?’
on the side, or maybe a soda cup that has a lid shaped like a hand covering
the top**…. well maybe not.  But critics kind of liked the movie (currently
at 78%), and the exits look very similar, so it’s clearly not a bad movie.
So we have a movie with a good campaign, a good date, the critics didn’t
have an issue with it and those who showed liked it.  But it wasn’t just
the Hicks in the Stix who Nixed it, it was upper middle America.  So as
challenging as it is to figure out what’s theatrical these days, we have to
think about who this is for, and needs to be for a few people outside of
the 310 and 212 area codes.  Looks like $7 million for the weekend.
The Forge - The faith based audience is a tough group to crack, they are
a little insular in their media consumption so it’s a challenge to reach
them with any efficiency.  This film opened on 1800 screens and it started
the day nicely, but it’s not showing signs of being all pre-sales, there’s
decent growth from hour to hour and that’s better than normal for this
genre.  As you would expect, the best theaters are mostly red states, but
the grosses don’t fall off that quickly from the top grossing theaters, so
there was good reach here. Right now it looks like a weekend of $6 million
or so.
*The Crow *- This got slapped around pretty good by the critics (currently
21%), however the audience score is nothing terrible at this point (65%).
Looks like a weekend around $5 million, but we’ll have to see which measure
has the most influence as the weekend develops.  Once again though, this is
way better in NY and LA than the rest of the country.
*and they don’t live in Peoria.
** which would actually be a little less creepy than the AMC Dune Popcorn
bucket.

Thread continued
Reply 1, the reader · 2024-08-24
[not that it’s doing much business, but Magenta Light Studios (Bob Yari’s
new company) released STRANGE DARLING (a Miramax micro-budget movie I
worked on) this weekend - 1100-ish screens, looks like it’ll make around
$1M, from what I’ve been told.
(i was surprised to hear it went wide, but happy it was given a decent
level of exposure…)
It’s a tiny movie, but has a well deserved 96% fresh rating on RT, for
whatever that’s worth.  great showpiece for JT Mollner (writer/director)
and the two leads (Kyle Gallner and Will Fitzgerald).  And fun fact,
Giovanni Ribisi was the cinematographer on the film.]
How are things with you?
Reply 2, the writer · 2024-08-25
You should have asked me, I had it at about $1 million.
Going fairly well, just fighting the fight as usual.