First weekend of August 2024
Because Deadpool went crazy last weekend and the craziness continues this weekend, we’re competitive again this weekend vs last year, even though the new offerings this year will gross about half of the new films last year (Meg 2, TMNT) and BarbenHeimer was in full swing. The total this weekend is probably going to be very close to the total last year, and we actually have a good shot of beating last year for the next couple of weeks.
There’s not really anything I feel like talking about today; all the topics I’ve been talking about lately are manifesting themselves at the box-office currently, so instead of doing a ‘water is wet, the sky is blue’ riff, I’ll give your eyeballs a break.
Anyway, with a similar accuracy of a letter written to Apple by Apple A.I. complaining about how A.I. keeps re-writing word in my email so the make no sense, here are some thoughts on the weekend box-office.
Deadpool & Wolverine - Obviously playability is a key factor in week 2, but it also helps when the new films aren’t much of a threat. This looks pretty good today, especially considering the size of last week. At this point this should get over $100 million for the 2nd weekend, pretty amazing.
Twisters - As you would expect, the grosses today mirror the US in general, the red states are behaving differently than the coasts. The fly over states are really holding in there beautifully, but it’s not like the coasts are bad, they’re just not as good as the middle of the country. All in all, it should end up with a really nice drop of around 35% for a weekend in the low/mid 20’s.
The Trap - WB did something super smart here, they didn’t hold press screenings and that showed up in the preview grosses last night, because lately reviews have been the M. Night killer. As with all the M. Night films of late, the big twist at the end is moviegoing consumers shuffling out of the theater muttering to themselves…’I’m a sucker for thinking this was gonna be any different than the last couple of M. Night films’. Of course the reviews and the exits are now coming in, so we’ll have to see how that affects the weekend, but this looks like $17 million or for the weekend. That would be M. Night’s best opening since Glass.
Harold and the Purple Crayon - I’ve spoken in the past here about taking chances on an actor’s ability to mean something at the box-office, and it’s really hard to gauge that power a couple of years out (for up and coming talent). But when we know what they are, it’s not as hard, so the tepid result here is right in line with what we see from Zach Levi. This hand-holder kids film isn’t very good today, and it looks like $6 million or so; but even though most kids are still out of school, the core audience needs an adult to take them, so we might see some upside tomorrow.
The Firing Squad - The faith based drama went 800 theaters and there’s not much going on here. Even the best theaters are just okay, figure a weekend of $800k or so.
Kneecap - Went 700 runs backed by a pretty extensive publicity campaign but not much else, which usually equates to nothing at the box-office. I’m not sure this gets past $200k.
The Instigators - Went 14 theaters on a one week window before Apple + next week, and as usual the public rarely will pay to see something they can get for free next week, and the grosses are pretty soft (even with a pretty extensive media campaign). Figure a $2k psa or so.