Third weekend of June 2024
The sunny skies continue to shine on the box-office, and thanks to the juggernauts of the last couple of weeks, it turns out we’re going to be way ahead of the same weekend last year. And, it looks like we’ll stay ahead of last year each weekend until we hit Barbenhiemer weekend, so we’re going to erode away at our box-office deficit for another month or so. Although we only have a couple of films this weekend, it wasn’t that different last year (No Hard Feelings, Asteroid City’s wide break), but as usual it’s those holdover films that make the difference. We have a shot at being 50% better than the same weekend last year; so I’ll say it again…it’s the movies, not the marketplace. It’s amazing how (seemingly) every sector in the world has been able to get away with the ’supply chain issues’ excuse since 2020, but for theatrical, that doesn’t seem to fly.
Last weekend was amazing at the box-office, but in a really strange way, we saw the grosses grow in a way that was more like 2014 than 2024. Why was it different? Let me explain.
Remember back when Fox and Lucasfilm rolled out the CGI/muppet filled Star Wars Episodes 1 through 3? If you remember, there were news stories on each one about how the line for the first show started days (and sometimes more) before the opening day, and it was kind of a badge of honor for a hard core fan to be part of that. You don’t hear of that anymore do you? Why did it go away? Two words: Reserved Seating. Back then the Exhibitors didn’t have the box-office technology (or maybe they had it but didn’t want to spend the money) to offer on line reserved seating, so you had to line up before a show for the best seats. Now those ‘early attender line up’ events are replaced by the day pre-sales happen. And who do we have to thank for this convenience? The (sadly) now defunct Arclight Cinemas.
When they built the multiplex next to The Dome in Hollywood there were a couple of innovations that were cutting edge for the time, and have now been adopted by the industry. You could reserve an actual seat location up to a week in advance, they had a liquor license, they limited the amount of trailers (and no ads) and went out of their way to make the moviegoing experience better with ‘black box’ setup in the theater. But even though it won the hearts and minds of the LA cinephiles, it took a while for the rest of the industry to adopt the ideas. But as we watched the industry slowly adopt the idea of reserved seating, the way we watched the grosses come in on opening day (and over the weekend) changed. Is reserved seating good or bad for the sector? Like everything else it’s both; it’s a good thing to lock consumers money in well in advance, but how many of you have tried to go to a movie and passed because when you went to go buy tickets, there were no seats you wanted to sit in, so you ‘pass’. Back before reserved seating, you maybe would sit there anyway because you were already there.
Around 2017/2018 was the tipping point, when most of the theaters that mattered had gone to advance ticketing; and as we looked at the grosses during the matinees on opening day it gave us a false sense of achievement, but because we didn’t realize consumer behavior had changed, we ended up with the ‘7pm surprise’. People were buying tickets in advance instead of buying them at the boxoffice, and we didn’t realize (but quickly figured out what was going on) that the market had changed and we weren’t going to see the growth from walk up business in the evening anymore; those tickets had already been purchased. Back before reserved seating we would see a 2x or 3x growth from the matinee to the total for the day, now a really good walk up film is up 50%.
So why is all the very dull ’inside baseball’ stuff important? Because last weekend we saw walk up growth like we haven’t seen in a long time, and it wasn’t all Inside Out 2*. It was Bad Boys and the other holdovers as well. What might that mean? My theory is we might have seen a consumer behavior shift and they went to ’the movies’ (without a specific movie in mind) rather than going to ‘a specific movie’. And that kind of behavior is very good for our sector, if consumers want to go out, go to a theater and there’s nothing interesting to see, we’ve failed. But we have good, broad appeal movies at the theaters right now, so sending those walk up consumers home with a smile on their face is good for the long term health of the sector. Now we just have to solve those supply chain issues.
Anyway, with the same expected accuracy of the ‘list your experience’ section of a Lakers head coach application, here are some thoughts on the weekend box-office.
Inside Out 2 - The monster from last week is a monster again this week, and with nothing going straight at the genre, they’re going to have a really nice weekend. When you look at the drop from last week, the percentage is very similar to Elemental’s 2nd Friday, so we’ll figure it follows that path and drops about 40% from last weekend. That would put the weekend in the low/mid 90’s. Sensational.
Bad Boys Ride or Die - They had an amazing hold last weekend and ended up being one of the go to titles for Father’s Day on Sunday, but we don’t have Father’s Day every Sunday, so this will have a steeper drop this week. It’s still pretty good though and showing some legs, but let’s figure a drop around 50% for a weekend in the mid/high teens.
The Bikeriders - This film has taken a very odd path to today; it started at Disney, and was going to be released during the (plausible) Oscar window on the week after Thanksgiving last year. Focus then wrenched it away, and it’s now on one of the best release dates of the Summer. There’s a trick with a film like this; clearly this should appeal to Motorcycle fans who would identify with the characters in the movie. You know who I’m talking about, the 50 year old mid level accountant who works in a cubicle, but puts on the costume, and rides to Neptune’s Net for brunch on Sunday and considers himself an ‘outlaw’. You need those consumers for a film like this, but since this is a top notch cast with an arthouse vibe and a director that supports that vibe, you need to attract the upscale art consumer as well without alienating the ‘outlaws’. Looking at where this is playing well, Focus seems to have accomplished both parts of that; all the great upscale theaters are at the top of the gross list, but there’s some theaters right there with them that tell me they’re getting the downscale biker crowd as well. But going at Bikers is another can of worms. As I try to drill it into your heads every week, tagalongs are the key to success in our sector. But there’s a ‘loner’ angle to this consumer’s lifestyle, and we’ll have to see how that plays out over the weekend. As of now this looks like $9 million with a decent shot at $10 million, which is very good considering a key target of this film likes to be alone.
The Exorcism - Russell Crowe seems to be the go to guy for Exorcism movies, and this version is at the bottom of the pile. Went 2200 runs and looks like a weekend of only about $1.3 million.
Kinds of Kindness - Went 5 theaters, and as you would expect from a Yorgos Lanthimos film these days, it’s really good. However, it’s good in LA but way better in NY. The 2 NY theaters are the same 2 theaters an Art Film like this would have been in pre-Covid, the Lincoln Square and the Angelika. But we’re still reeling from the loss of the Arclight Hollywood and the Landmark, and we keep trying to ‘fetch’ the Art consumer into Century City, The Grove and Burbank. So the difference between NY and LA might be just an infrastructure issue. This looks really good though and looks headed towards a psa around $75k.
Janet Planet - Went 2 runs in NY and it’s pretty good. Looks like a psa of about $40k.
Thelma - This Sundance darling went 1300 runs (not sure why), and it’s not much. Looking at maybe $1 million.
- and it wasn’t all Hispanic, which is a theory I’ve heard a couple of times this week, it was broader than that. However, the heat wave might be a reason it happened.