Fourth weekend of October 2023
We’ve got a seismic shift going on in the business this weekend, and because of that shift (and depending on how the rest of the weekend plays out), we’ll be way ahead of the same weekend last year (Prey for the Devil, Till) and a little ahead of 2019 (Countdown, Black and Blue). But we’ll be significantly ahead of the norm for the weekend. Because Dune 2 moved off next weekend for more publicity friendly pastures, we’ll have a down weekend next weekend, but the rest of November looks like a good month for the sector.
Right on cue, after I talked about a ‘glass half empty’ world, there were a lot of naysayers talking about the gross on Killers of the Flower Moon saying ‘yeah, but for a $250 million budget it should have opened to more than $23 million’; and they followed it up with ‘and Napoleon too’. Oh, okay. So what are you saying? Apple should have just plopped them on the platform and let them disappear into the streaming void films without a legitimate theatrical release? The streaming market has been flooded the last 5 years by films at or near a similar cost, and they’ve all just disappeared, but I guess that’s okay. The whole point of a well executed theatrical release is to keep that from happening, and there should be significant financial benefits downstream. And I’m not just talking about value to the platform, which should be significant. I’m also talking about a couple of awards contenders here, and Apple won’t have to spend all that extra money telling voters ‘we’re a theatrical movie….we swear’, because they spent it getting people to theaters instead (and got some of that money back in film rental).
One of the most challenging genres for the Theatrical Sector has been the Video Game based IP. It used to be solid theatrical IP way back when, but when the Video Game industry started evolving into narrative and story based games, and the gamer could control the story as good or better than a film maker could; and there was no reason for the gamers to come to the theater.
But there was also a big marketing challenge with gamers; you couldn’t get to them with marketing materials. They bought the game, played it all day and you never had a shot at exposing them to marketing stimuli for your movie, they had wandered into a walled garden you couldn’t get into. However, gaming companies evolved into technology that allowed you to play online and play other gamers that weren’t in the room. As part of that evolution, sites like Twitch, Steam, Battle; as well as the normal places the young folk hang out now like YouTube and TikTok all were part of a gamers routine. And the beauty of that…..they were no longer in a walled garden and took ads.
The next part of the evolution of the gamer was the phenomenon of watching another gamer play the game, especially on those gamer based social platforms. Now, not only can we reach the gamers in the environment that they live in, but we also have influencers with millions of followers watching them play who can be bought (or even give them roles in your movie and make them stakeholders). So now you can fish where the fish are (and have some of the fish pointing out the hook to other fish saying ’that looks tasty’), and it was only a matter of time before someone caught a big one.
The big one this weekend is obviously Five Nights at Freddy’s, and to say it’s a surprise is an understatement. Looking at the critics score (currently at 25%), and then the audience score (currently at 88%), this is clearly a ’secret handshake’ movie and if you don’t know the IP, you just aren’t going to enjoy it. But who else didn’t know the handshake? Apparently Universal, since this is day and date on Peacock; similar to what they did on the release of Firestarter last year, and that opened to $3.8 million. Had they understood the lightning in a bottle quality of this IP, and how a clever angle at the core audience could make it soar, I doubt this would be on Peacock. Don’t get me wrong here, I’m not casting blame on Universal; myself and pretty much all of you who read this would have done the same thing. It’s a movie that (if you’re not in the cult) is just okay at best, it’s halfway between a horror movie and a family movie so it’s a feathered fish, and it’s targeted at an audience that doesn’t go to the movies (and if they do go, they go alone). So, there is zero fault here at Universal, all the research in the world wouldn’t get you to this result back when you needed to make this decision.
What will be interesting to watch over the weekend is how this plays out. Does it die tomorrow like day and date movies usually do, or does it play out closer to a normal genre movie that’s purely theatrical? If it’s pretty normal, that should tell you something about the behavior of this audience, and maybe the Peacock thing didn’t really matter. Why? Because this demo doesn’t watch much TV, and if the exit polls show a large portion of the audience is under 25, they probably wanted to do a ‘group in person thing’ and they like to get out of the house. Unlike older moviegoers where a day and date release makes a big difference, watching this at home didn’t have the same appeal. This demo is ruled by FOMO, so once this tipped it created it’s own wind, and you need to be one of the ‘cool kids’ and be part of the conversation.
Hopefully this doesn’t make studios feel like this ‘cracks the code’ and day and date is a good thing, no matter what. Just remember how Trolls World Tour ‘cracked the code’ back in April 2020 for PVOD releases, and we would never need theatrical again. Similar to this weekend, It was a time and a place, and it was lightning in a bottle. It’s more important to figure out what lit the fuse to make a demo that doesn’t go to movies much go to the movies…in groups. Everyone should be doing a deep dive to see where the money was spent; there’s definitely something new to discover here (although media buyers are a notoriously ’template’ based bunch, and getting them to change anything is a lot of work), and the success this weekend might show us how we can re engage young moviegoers, and get them back to theatrical.
Anyway, with the accuracy normally associated with a Travis Kelce/TAYLOR SWIFT restaurant sighting in Connecticut, here are some thoughts on the weekend box office.
Five Nights at Freddy’s - We’ve got a bonafide outlier hit here today, and the numbers are sensational. Once the fire is started it creates its own wind and this fire is raging right now. The growth isn’t flat, so it’s not telling us that this is all pre-sales and nothing else; it’s growing at a pace that’s very normal. Looking at where it’s doing business, the only aspect of note is it’s over performing in the Hispanic theaters, so clearly there’s a substantial hispanic skew to this IP. So where does it go from here? No matter what, it’s gonna be something big and how it holds up tomorrow is going to be fun to watch. It’s got to really collapse tomorrow to get lower than $70 million or so, but if this group of consumers just prefers the group theatrical experience and it plays like a non day and date movie, $100 million isn’t out of the question. But just like all outliers, we don’t know and we’re just gonna have to see it play out.
TAYLOR SWIFT: THE ERAS TOUR - She took the weekdays off again this week (Mon, Tue and Wed), and there’s nothing in the weekend holdover gross that says that’s a good idea; it seems like they’re just missing revenue opportunities. Looks like it’s down a fairly normal 50% for the weekend, which would put it in the mid/high teens.
Killers of the Flower Moon - Having a good 2nd Friday, not a sensational 2nd Friday but a good 2nd Friday. It’s down about 10 points better than normal, which should put the weekend down about 45% for a gross of about $12.5 or so.
*After Death *- The folks at Angel (who brought us Sound of Freedom last summer) are back with a Doc about the Afterlife. They clearly have a faithful audience, and the grosses are much better than we usually see for a Doc. They went 2600 screens and it looks like a gross around $4 or $5 million for the weekend.
Freelance - Went 2000 runs and it’s doing much of anything. Looks like $1.5 or $2 million for the weekend.
For both Priscilla and The Holdovers, there’s still a glaring issue with the upscale/exclusive infrastructure in LA and NY. In LA we still really miss the Arclight Hollywood (as well as the Landmark), and in NY Regal has ruined the Union Sq. Regal still refuses to put ‘Theaters’ or ‘Cinemas’ next to Regal on their buildings, so passers by think it’s a dry cleaner, or a coffee shop (their logo has no connection with anything cinematic and looks kinda like a Burr grinder). If we still had the infrastructure in LA and NY we had before Covid, both these movies would be doing much better.
Priscilla - Went 4 runs in NY and LA and it’s good but not great so far. The Angelika has a gross that’s way above the other theaters, but Sofia Coppola is doing Q and A’s there tonight. Unless there are some Q and A’s tomorrow or Sunday, the psa should end up in the $25k to $30k range.
The Holdovers - Went 6 theaters in NY and LA and the grosses look very similar to Priscilla’s grosses with the exception of Lower Manhattan, where they’re in the Regal Union Sq; and Century City which has Q and A’s. Looks like a psa around $20k right now.