Third weekend of April 2022
A lot of people have contacted me this week and asked me if I was ‘happy’ about the tough week it’s been for the streamers. But I have a lot of friends at those companies who I care about, so although the business model is being exposed as unsustainable, I actually appreciate how many people they have put to work over the years. It’s been especially beneficial to the under appreciated corners of our business like shorts and docs, where their patronage and support have been amazing. But a company like Netflix refused to understand that they are the new CBS, NBC, ABC or Fox, but instead got obsessed with putting movie theaters out of business.
Back in the early 90’s, the Fox network was pretty much the same as the CW is right now. But in 1994 they ‘overpaid’ for the NFC package from the NFL, which of course changed their position in the TV universe. Now, a similar game changing package is up for bid next year; the Directtv deal is up for NFL Sunday Ticket, and you can bet a couple of the streamers are coming for it guns ablazin’ (rumor has it Apple is the leader with a $2.5 billion a year deal, a healthy increase from the $1.5 billion a year Directtv was paying). So who’s not making noise for the package? Netflix, and not only aren’t they thinking towards the golden goose of TV (Live Sports), but they probably can’t afford it because they’ve been throwing away money on forgettable movies, and spending $150 million to get Jane Campion an Oscar for a film that (if you believe the reports) less than 1 million people have seen. BTW, that also tells you how they’ve been spending money, you would think they would have spent marketing dollars on getting people to watch the movie instead of getting Academy and Guild members to vote for it. So for Netflix, they kinda got what they asked for. But I’m still concerned for the friends I have there.
But back to the tried and true business of Theatrical. We’ve got 3 movies this weekend that will sum up to a nice gross, and it looks like the total gross of all movies this weekend will be about 10% better than the similar weekend in 2019, and that weekend was Easter Weekend. In addition, all three films had great RT scores and are seeing really strong exit polls, so happy customers are good for the future of the business.
Anyway, with the accuracy normally associated with the ‘first stream’ measurement when it comes to applying revenue to content at the streamers, here’s some thoughts on the weekend box office.
The Bad Guys - This release from DWA is having a pretty good afternoon, especially considering there’s only a few kids (18%) out of school. But this is all going to be about the bounce tomorrow, and if this has the usual 50% uptick this should easily win the weekend. Figure this looks like mid 20’s for the weekend.
The Northman - They had a pretty good night during the previews last night and it’s strong today. It’s going to be interesting to see how this grows tonight, for a movie of this scope they don’t have many IMAX theaters (Fantastic Beasts has them) so they don’t have that big presales that comes with the IMAX theaters. Right now it looks like mid teens, but since it’s an older skew this could get a lift if it has the usual older adult increase tomorrow.
The Unbearable Weight of Massive Talent - This Meta crowd pleaser is pretty strong on the coasts (as you would expect) and the city that acts like it’s on the coast, Austin. Unfortunately the demos from the exits here look an awful lot like the demos for Northman, so it’s possible that the two movies would have been better off if they weren’t on the same date. It started the day pretty good, but it’s been a little flat since. Right now it looks like 7 or 8 million.
Fantastic Beasts: The Secrets of Dumbledore - Since last Friday was Good Friday, today is going to be more off than normal. The weekend here should be off about 60% for a gross in the mid teens.
Father Stu - Not down very much today, but it had a much bigger than normal jump from Friday to Saturday last week, and maybe the Catholic core audience was in church. So if it has the normal Adult Friday to Saturday bounce tomorrow, they might have a very slight drop and finish around $3 million.
Everything Everywhere All At Once - Looks like this is the ‘it’ art film we’ve been waiting for, it’s rock solid today and there’s no end in sight. It’s not out of the question this will do very close to what it did last weekend, with a very similar number of theaters this week. So for now figure something around 5 with an upside.
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Reply 1, the reader · 2022-04-23
btw, is bill block on this?