Second weekend of September 2021
On the heels of Disney’s spectacular opening last week of Shang Chi, they announced today that they aren’t going to give away the rest of their 2021 slate for pennies on the dollar. Universal went the other direction yesterday on Halloween Kills, which was the 2nd weirdest thing that happened with Halloween Kills this week after it premiered in Venice. But Disney isn’t going day and date……Whaaaa? But the MBA’s the studio’s hired away from Mckinsey are all sure that streaming is the way to go! It’s the future! Well, let’s review why Disney is going theatrical with the rest of their slate:
- They’re probably going to gross over $200 million at the box office (Domestically).
- They can still have a PVOD release down the road to exploit the at home audience at a premium price.
- They can still have a VOD release after the PVOD release to capture the at home audience that is price conscious
- It will still be a valuable title once they release it on Disney Max.
I know I’ve been saying this since the restart, but the problem with collapsing windows is that you lose (especially with the rabid Marvel fanbase) the high per view revenue streams that come with a theatrical release, as well as the tiers of consumers who will pay various prices to watch it once it becomes TV content. But when you collapse the windows, you lose the repeat purchases, and the beauty of the windows that the McKinsey folk have been so itchy to get rid of was the consumer paid you more than once for the same product. You can’t get that when it’s immediately available on Disney Max to watch as many times as the consumer wants. Anyway, with the expected accuracy of a Greg Zeurlein kick, here are some thoughts on this weekend’s box office.
Shang Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings - It’s really good again today, and what a difference windows make, it’s actually holding a little better than Captain Marvel did on it’s 2nd Friday. Looking at the next 2 weekends, this has a great chance of being #1 four weeks in a row. The norm for a Disney/Marvel movie that plays this strong is down about 55% on the 2nd weekend; and the only thing that will keep it from being a little better than that is because last weekend was a holiday weekend, and this Sunday will be a little worse. Plus pretty much all the schools are back today, and there was about 1/4 out last Friday, so the fact that it’s as good as it is right now with no kids out is spectacular. Figure it’s down a normal 55% for a weekend in the low/mid 30’s.
Malignant - Usually a James Wan movie is living in the highest level of Horror film opening weekends, but no one can hit every time. Clearly this didn’t connect with the horror audience (and it’s day and date with HBO+), figure a weekend of about $6 million.
Free Guy/Candyman - Both of these are holding nicely this weekend, especially Free Guy (which should pass $100 million this weekend), figure they’re both around $5 million or maybe a little less for the weekend.
The Card Counter - Went about 500 runs and although the specialty market is still a work in progress in LA and NY, it’s really nice to see The Grove back open and it’s the #1 gross in the country on this film right now. Looks like 800-900k for the weekend.
Show me the Father - This faith based film went 1000 runs and there’s not much going on box office wise. Maybe $300/$400k for the weekend.