Second weekend of June 2021

One of the aspects of the weekend box office that I’ve always found kinda annoying was when studios ‘managed’ the forecasts both pre-weekend, and during the weekend. In a perfect world they would want to be a little low going into the weekend, and then once we start understanding what it looks like on Friday, they want to model it so Saturday is forecast a little low and they can outperform once you get to Sunday. So in a perfect world it’s a twofer, it’s better than expected and it’s playing so good that it’s better than we expected (of the better than expected). And I get it, happy film makers/execs who have poured a lot of work into each film is always a good thing, making them happy more than once is better. But now because the trade press (and in particular The Crap Wrap), has fucked over WB and the whole In the Heights family royally this week, I’m beginning to see the point. Why did they fuck them over so bad? They started throwing $30 million plus weekend grosses out there; mostly because that’s what Crazy Rich Asians did (in 5 days, not 3) and this has got to be better, right? WTF?Getting audiences to see a romantic comedy drenched in Fashion and Wealth porn is a completely different sell as a film about lower income New Yorkers fighting against gentrification (in song),

Let’s start with some basics here to break down exactly how little The Wrap knows about this; first, musicals are a tough sell. They have a decent fan base but the genre is what I like to refer to as ‘binary’, you’re either in or you’re out. And the problem with that is moviegoing is a social group event, and there are certain genres (including Westerns and Horror films), that some people just don’t want to go to under any circumstances. So if you’re a fan and your normal moviegoing friends aren’t, you’re going alone. Second, this is a very low power IP. You might say “but Hamilton!”, yeah uh huh, if it was Hamilton we would be talking about this differently, but it’s not Hamilton. It’s like saying Star Wars and THX 1138 are the same thing; they’re both from George Lucas, they’re both terrific and groundbreaking films, but they’re not the same. Hamilton was a smash hit on Broadway and you couldn’t get a ticket, In the Heights was a solid hit. Hamilton was a smash hit on the road with extended engagements and sellouts wherever it went,* In the Heights* was a nice little touring show that spent a week or two in each city. So this isn’t Hamilton. Third, In the Heights went with a cast that’s terrific in the movie, but has very little (if any) ability to get moviegoers in seats on their own. You might say ‘but Lin Manuel Miranda!’, okay but he’s in the film as an Easter egg walk on. Had he played the lead role like he did on Broadway, we would be talking differently about this. But instead we have a (very talented and like the rest of the cast is terrific in the movie) guy who’s known mostly for Crown Royal commercials.

The whole point of all this is, there are no elements to this package that warrant a $30+ million opening, and the elements of this package look up at the basic elements of another loved movie Musical, The Greatest Showman. And that opened to….$8.8 million. And as you know, it finished at $174 million, but it started at $8.8 million. But here’s a film with very modest base aspects that WB has put their heart and soul into a campaign (that was terrific). Although this didn’t have star power or base IP, they sold fun fun and more fun. And in contrast to the darker films that have been successful lately, this felt like a breath of fresh air. So we have an amazing campaign and WB showed the world they truly believed in it, but because of the fucking trade press that doesn’t know anything, what should be a massive win will feel like a disappointment. Not because of anything that WB did; they did the opposite and because of their hard work they prevented this film from opening to high single digits that the elements should have taken it to. Why did the trade press say $30+ million, who knows, but usually the culprit is tracking, but anyone who still follows tracking needs to adjust their current life choices and move on. Anyway with the expected accuracy of weekend forecasts in the trade press, especially The Wrap, here are some thoughts about the weekend box office.

In the Heights - This incredibly well reviewed film had great pre-sales today, but hasn’t grown much since; and as you would expect with a film like this, it’s super coastal and big city. One of the interesting behavioral aspects of the WB day and date releases is the way they tend to run out of steam by 8pm, even films that normally would have legs well into the night like Conjuring and Mortal Kombat. In addition they tend to be a little flatter when you look at the Friday to Saturday bounce. Why that happens is anyone’s guess, and if any film has a chance of breaking that low Friday to Saturday bounce trend, this might be it. But the bottom line is WB literally dragged this film (to whatever it will end up at) with love, care and a shit ton of money. And if it wasn’t for some really out of line expectations the industry would be lauding them for their achievement, but instead…..The Wrap. And if this ends up where I think it will end up, The Wrap should write WB an 8 figure check for the difference from where their ‘analysts we spoke to’ said it was gonna be. In fact I’m going to channel my inner Howard Beale and ask that all of you get up out of your chair, go to the window and yell (with a slightly British Accent and as if you’ve been drinking) ‘I’m as mad as hell, and I don’t want the trade press publishing forecasts anymore’……..

Peter Rabbit 2: The Runaway - This film has already had really solid openings in some international territories, but although it’s a little soft today here, there might be a good reason. Sony has added an incentive to tomorrow’s Peter Rabbit movie goers, everyone gets a free popcorn on Sony, which is kinda brilliant. Since the streamers have used incentives to boost sub’s like free service with your cell phone or grocery delivery, why not add a bonus for in theater moviegoers? So even though it’s not going to win the day today, I’m not sure some moviegoers (and maybe a lot of them) are going tomorrow that would have gone today. So if tomorrow has a massive % growth from today, this film could win the weekend. But this should make tomorrow really interesting.

A Quiet Place Part II - Looking like a normal 3rd weekend for a film of this size, probably down about 45% for the weekend. What’s interesting here is in a couple of hours they will pass Godzilla vs Kong as the highest grossing film of the year, and then about an hour later they’ll pass $100 million domestic.

Meet the Blacks 2: The House Next Door - Went 400 runs with a very skinny campaign and looks like about 800k for the weekend.