Tenet Labor Day weekend 2020

We’ve got a couple more markets opening up this weekend, and as I’ve watched some of the markets reopen, sometimes it takes about a week or two for each theater to start behaving ’normally’. Unfortunately, a lot of these local and state governments give the exhibitors very little time to prepare, and it takes the theaters some time to gather staff and get open. For instance, all of the New Jersey theaters would have loved to be open today for Tenet, but they were cleared on Monday and couldn’t accomplish it in 3 days, so they’ll eventually get most of the theaters open by next week. There is something else you have to consider as markets open; there’s an additional behavioral issue with moviegoers. When you think about the way the movie business has evolved, because of the ability to buy tickets for a show and a specific seat in advance, there’s a planning aspect to going to the movies. So a lot of these theaters that have just opened only have a day or two of presales, instead of the 3 or 4 weeks we would see for a hot film like Tenet. Of course, the lazy entertainment press (like the LA Times today) doesn’t care about things like that and keeps trying to equate moviegoing with skydiving; even though sitting in the dark, facing the same direction and sitting quietly shouldn’t be a big issue. Of course, I thought NATO should adopt a slogan ‘Going to the Movies, safer than Church and we pay taxes!’ (but only in NY, LA, most of Miami and parts of Dallas).

Tenet - In a rare show of unity, all the studios have banded together to protect WB on Tenet, and no one but WB will see grosses this weekend. Why? Just like I pointed out above, because of the asshole press and their click bait headlines. No matter what it would have opened to, a decent amount (of the press) would have found the glass half empty, so why give them the opportunity. However, if you poke around the internet, you’ll see that quite a few showtimes are already sold out, so I’m sure this is going to be very good. And as an example of how substantial this film is, you will probably have a decent amount of moviegoers from LA driving down to Oceanside (like me tomorrow) or New Yorkers going to Jersey. When you consider that it will take me about the same driving time in a Covid world to get from my house to Carlsbad, as it would to get from my house to the Dome or the Chinese in a pre-Covid world, why not? One thing to remember though, it’s been reported that about 70% of theaters are open now, but that’s not the best way to look at this. We’re still missing the biggest markets like NY, LA and the Bay Area, so I’d consider the grossing potential of the theaters that are open is probably closer to 55 or 60%. So whatever WB reports on Sunday, figure in a normal non Covid marketplace, it would be nearly double.

As far as the holdovers, what’s interesting is that the drops from last week look very ’normal’, very similar to what you would see pre Covid. I was a little worried that Tenet would cut the legs out of everything, which means we would only have a finite amount of moviegoers right now, but it doesn’t look that way to me. Another sign that moviegoing should rebound.

The New Mutants - As you would expect with a film like this that didn’t do very well in the exit polls, plus had a hot start last Friday, it’s way down today. However, looking at the next couple of weeks, there’s not enough new films to displace this from the theaters so even though it’s down today, it should get a better than average multiple.

Unhinged - Looking off about the same as last week, but with the holiday weekend it might end up with a lower drop.

Personal History of David Copperfield - Even though it didn’t gross that much last weekend (because they’re missing most of the markets with the best upscale theaters), the drop from last week looks a little better than average.

Words on Bathroom Walls - Just like David Copperfield, this hasn’t been grossing that much, however the drop from last week is excellent today.