Third weekend of August 2019

Good Boys

 About 50% of the K-12 kids are back in school as of today and we’ll give
some more back next week, but it looks like it’s going to be another
giveback weekend when we compare this year to last year.  So, with the
accuracy normally associated with a Manhattan Correctional Center nap
schedule, here’s my best take on the weekend box-office.
#1 Good Boys - Had a great night last night and once again Universal is
at the top of its game when it comes to Comedy (now that New Line seems to
be sitting out for a while).  Unless it runs out of gas later, they should
be good for $20 million give or take a couple of million.
#2 *Hobbs & *Shaw - Off another 50% or so for $12 or $13 million.
#3 Angry Birds 2 - Not to be confused with the long gestating prestige
remake of the Hitchcock Classic, Ang Lee’s Birds; we’ve got another example
of a sequel struggling over the weekend after opening on a non-Friday.   We
should probably avoid this in the future (outside of the day before
Thanksgiving) and unless a film has spectacular playability, it looks like
opening on a non Friday simply spreads the 3 day gross out over 5 days (or
in this case 6).  Remember Moviegoing is a social event and part of the
reason we open films on Friday is the hard core and avid fans of a film get
their friends to go with them.  If they (the fans) go on the first day, and
that day isn’t Friday, chances are you’ve lost some of the tag alongs
because a weeknight doesn’t work for them as well as a weekend night.  As I
wrote on Tuesday, there’s nothing wrong with rolling the dice to pick up
some extra summer days while the kids are out; but just like Annabelle,
Midsommer and Happy Death Day early this year, if the playability is just
good, there is a downside risk.  Right now this looks like about $9 million
for the 3 day and $15 million for the 6 day.
47 Meters Down: Uncaged - Looks just okay right now, nothing close to
where 47 Meters Down was at the same point of the day.  Figure about $7
million for the weekend.
Blinded by the Light - WB/NL’s high profile and well reviewed Sundance
pickup, bolstered by TV spots with letterbox fonts so big it could pass for
a watermark, is just okay today.  Not really a shock since there is zero
star power to the film, and it probably would have been better off on a
slow roll exclusive release.  Figure $3 to $4 million for the weekend.
Where’d you go Bernadette - Looking about the same but maybe a little
behind Blinded by the Light, figure the same $3 to $4 million weekend.