Fourth weekend of June 2019

It’s going to be another big step backwards from the same weekend last year, even though last year’s new films were nothing special (Sicario 2, Uncle Drew), it’s still the same Incredibles 2/Jurassic World 1-2 punch from last year causing the deficit. So, with the expected accuracy of a Waze arrival time when you have to drive from JFK to Paramus during rush hour, here’s my best take on the weekend box-office.

#1 Toy Story 4 - Typical 2nd weekend drop for a Disney/Pixar film, figure about 50% for a weekend in the high 50’s/low 60s.

#2 Annabelle Comes Home - Maybe we need the MPAA to do an intervention that keeps Distributors from mistreating Horror films by opening them on Wednesday? The theatrical marketplace is a group attendance proposition, and the movie that gets the biggest groups wins (see Disney); fans are going to turn out for a film, it’s the amount of friends that go with them that makes the difference. Watching movies alone is where streaming has dug in*. That’s why horror and Fridays go together like peas and carrots, the fans get their friends to go with them when it’s convenient for them, and they all can scream and laugh together. By opening on Wednesday, the fans want to got asap; but it’s not as convenient for the tag alongs to go mid week, so by the time the tag along is available the fan has already seen it. Alone. We saw this last year with The First Purge and earlier this year with Happy Death Day 2U, both came in really low because they were released rather than launched. All that being said, it looks like 16 or 17 for the weekend, bringing the 5 day to about 26 or 27.

#3 Yesterday - They had a nice set of previews last night and it’s been really strong all day. Of course this skews pretty old and the theaters leading the pack are the Premium Seating and Dine-In theaters, and since those theaters lend themselves to pre-sales, this should flatten out tonight. However, since it is Adult skewing (and although the materials made it seem like being a rock star was a terrible idea, the exits are pretty good), we could see a bigger than normal bounce tomorrow night when Adults prefer to go to the movies. Figure around $14 million for the weekend.

• I’m not a sociologist but I play one here in this email.