Toy Story 4
Animation & Family Disney G 1h 29m Released Jun 21, 2019 Discussed 2019–2023
Opening weekend
$120.9M
4,575 theaters
Per-theater average
$26,428
opening weekend
Domestic total
$434.0M
3.6× its opening
Worldwide total
$1.07B
41% domestic
Production budget
$200.0M
5.4× worldwide
RT critics
96%
RT audience
94%
-2 vs critics
Metacritic
84
Where it turns up
Friday, June 21, 2019 Third weekend of June 2019
On the chart Toy Story 4 (opening): $120.9M
Expected 'Around $145 million': a 36% jump on Toy Story 3 Actual: $120.9M
In the note
So based on something I heard during a Mini Bar drinking game at the Hard Rock Hotel in the Dominican Republic, here’s my best take on the weekend box-office. #1 Toy Story 4 - As usual, Disney moves the ball forward on sequels and this should be in the neighborhood of a spectacular 36% improvement on the opening weekend of Toy Story 3 ($110 million).
Friday, June 28, 2019 Fourth weekend of June 2019
On the chart Toy Story 4 (wk 2): $59.7M, -51%
Expected 'Figure about 50% [drop] for a weekend in the high 50's/low 60s' Actual: $59.7M, -51%
In the note
So, with the expected accuracy of a Waze arrival time when you have to drive from JFK to Paramus during rush hour, here’s my best take on the weekend box-office. #1 Toy Story 4 - Typical 2nd weekend drop for a Disney/Pixar film, figure about 50% for a weekend in the high 50’s/low 60s. #2 Annabelle Comes Home - Maybe we need the MPAA to do an intervention that keeps Distributors from mistreating Horror films by opening them on Wednesday? The theatrical marketplace is a group attendance proposition, and the movie that gets the biggest groups wins (see Disney); fans are going to turn out for a film, it’s the amount of friends that go with them that makes the difference.
Friday, July 12, 2019 Second weekend of July 2019
On the chart Toy Story 4 (wk 4): $20.9M, -38%
Expected 'Rights itself tomorrow and finishes the weekend in the high teens' Actual: $20.9M
In the note
So figure mid/high 40’s for the weekend. #2 Toy Story 4 - Because a lot of people had last Friday off is was a quasi-Black Friday business wise, so this is way down right now.
Friday, July 19, 2019 Third weekend of July 2019
On the chart Toy Story 4 (wk 5): $15.6M, -26%
Expected 'Looks like low teens' Actual: $15.6M, -26%
In the note
With the heatwave this weekend giving this an upside and the possibility that this might be a little front loaded giving it a downside, I’ll pick a midpoint of about $180 million for the weekend, which will comfortably be a July record. #2 Spider-Man : Far From Home - Looks pretty normal for a 3rd weekend, figure it’s off 50% for a weekend in the low 20’s. #3 Toy Story 4 - Looks pretty good right now, looks like low teens. The Farewell - Expanded to 35 theaters this weekend and looks really good so far.
Friday, June 23, 2023 Fourth weekend of June 2023
In the note
The weekend should still break $100 million, but not by much, and it will be short of the Elvis/Black Phone weekend last year and about half of the Toy Story 4/Child’s Play weekend of 2019.