Godzilla Minus One

Friday, December 1, 2023 First weekend of December 2023

On the chart Godzilla Minus One (opening): $11.4M

Expected 'Figure a weekend of about 9 million... it can only go so far' Actual: $11.4M, and it kept going

In the note Figure it’s down a little less than 50% (which is very good for this weekend) and a gross of about $15 million. Godzilla Minus One - If you read the reviews, this is apparently the Citizen Kane of Godzilla movies.

Friday, December 8, 2023 Second weekend of December 2023

On the chart Godzilla Minus One (wk 2): $8.6M, -25%

Expected 'The hold looks very strong today. Looks down about 35% for a weekend in the mid 7's' Actual: $8.6M, -25%

In the note We told you this would be a pretty quiet week at the box-office, but similar to the way the box-office has been all year, it’s a little better than normal because we’re getting revenue from new sources. The Fall has been propped up by TAYLOR and BEYONCE, Apple has contributed significantly this Fall (and may have themselves a Best Picture contender because they leaned into theatrical) and now we have a weekend that’s going to be up a decent margin from last year because of…….Japan (more on that below). Last year we had no new wide releases, but some strong holds were propping up the box-office with Black Panther and the 2nd weekend of Violent Night. Looking back on 2019, this is a tough weekend to comp, since there were only 3 weekends between Thanksgiving and Christmas instead of the 4 we have this year. So the 2019 2nd weekend in December is probably closer to next weekend’s films (Jumanji: The Next Level showed what a Jumanji movie could open to without a Star Wars movie against it at $59.3 million, plus Richard Jewell and Black Christmas opened), and clearly we’ll be way behind that total. However, next weekend we’ll start seeing some nice grosses and the fun begins. Anyway, with the same accuracy and efficacy as a fruit inventory in space, here are some thoughts on the weekend box-office. It could be a tight race for #1 this weekend, there are 4 films that all could end up claiming the crown, but this is my best guess what order they’re going to come in at based on the numbers I’m looking at now. Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes - Continuing to leg out based on good word of mouth (it’s amazing how many of my civilian friends go out of their way to tell me how much they love this film), looks like it’s going to be down about 35% for a weekend just short of $10 million. The Boy and the Heron - There’s a lot of really good things about this opening. First it’s clear that there’s a market for Anime here, and it’s broadening. Because of the strong work Crunchyroll and FUNimation have done to grow this genre, we’ve got something going on here that is pretty unusual, because this is not a film distributed by Crunchyroll or FUNimation; it’s distributed by GKIDS. Crunchyroll and FUNimation have done amazing work at growing the Anime genre, and they’ve opened a couple of their films to substantial numbers (several openings in the $20 million range), but GKIDS has been distributing Anime films over the same time period and the biggest opening they’ve ever had was a 3 day of $1.8 million on Weathering with You back in January 2020. This film outgrossed that during last night’s previews. Of course, this didn’t happen because GKIDS found a magic lamp, this film is directed by one of the true Masters of this genre, Hayao Miyazaki, who not only co-founded Studio Ghibli, but also directed such Anime classics as Howl’s Moving Castle, Ponyo and The Wind Rises. The average World Wide Gross on those 3 titles is $193 million. So there’s strong fanship here, and it’s showing up today at the box-office. They had a terrific preview night last night, but today isn’t correlating to those strong numbers, it’s a little flat and even though it's going to be better than yesterday, it's not going to be much better. So as good as this is, there might be a depth issue to the fan base and generally this genre drops tomrrow. It’s flat enough today that it could go anywhere, but for now I’ll say it looks like 8 or 9 for the weekend. Of course, as good as that is (and a record for GKIDS), the glass half empty mentality of our business immediately goes to ‘what could Crunchyroll or FUNimation have done with it?' RENAISSANCE: A FILM BY BEYONCE - This looks more like a concert film in it’s 2nd weekend than TS’s film did (which, if you didn’t need another aspect that reinforces what an outlier she is, this reinforces it), and it looks down about 65% for a weekend in the mid 7’s. Godzilla Minus One - Showing it truly is the Casablanca of Godzilla movies, the hold looks very strong today.

Friday, December 15, 2023 Third weekend of December 2023

On the chart Godzilla Minus One (wk 3): $5.0M, -41%

Friday, March 29, 2024 Easter weekend 2024

In the note I know, I know, but Godzilla Minus One blah blah blah…, but maybe because Kong is more ‘merican (apparently even in China, but maybe because it’s less Japanese) it's a better IP.

Friday, November 22, 2024 Glicked weekend 2024

In the note

Thursday, November 28, 2024 Thanksgiving 2024

In the note Renaissance: A Film by Beyonce, Godzilla Minus One, The Shift, Animal and Silent Night cumed up to about $47 million (the norm for that weekend is probably closer to $4.7 million in new gross), but if it was a more normal week after Thanksgiving, this weekend’s gross would have tripled the previous year.

Where it turns up