Dune: Part Two

Friday, September 15, 2023 Third weekend of September 2023

In the note A great example of how thin things might get (because of the strike) is the first weekend in November, which is prime release date real estate, and no one has moved there since Dune Part Two moved out.

Friday, October 27, 2023 Fourth weekend of October 2023

In the note

Friday, November 3, 2023 First weekend of November 2023

In the note This was supposed to be the weekend of Dune 2, but without the ability to leverage the considerable star power on the publicity trail, they tapped out. However, last year it was the same situation (One Piece Film Red and an expansion of The Banshees of Inisherin), so we’ll end up with a very similar cume gross.

Friday, March 1, 2024 First weekend of March 2024

On the chart Dune: Part Two (opening): $82.5M

Expected 'I don't see a scenario where it doesn't have a 7 in front of the 3 day (and if it really gets an adult bounce tomorrow, could get an 8)' Actual: $82.5M, the adult bounce came

In the note The rest of March should be pretty close to last year, but once we get to April, we’ll fall behind again because we won’t have anything close to Super Mario Brothers. With apologies that today's email is pretty dull and with the expected accuracy of the Wayfarer's Chapel Wedding calendar, here are some thoughts on the weekend box-office. Dune Part Two - Every once in a while a movie has to move release dates because of marketplace issues; we saw that over and over again with Top Gun Maverick and it’s 5 (!) release dates.

Friday, March 8, 2024 Second weekend of March 2024

On the chart Dune: Part Two (wk 2): $46.2M, -44%

Expected 'Might have a drop as low as 40%... a weekend in the mid/high 40's' Actual: $46.2M, -44%

In the note The theaters that have a strong Asian skew are obviously doing great, but figure this ends up in the mid 50's for the weekend. Dune Part Two - This is showing us it’s gonna be around for a while, especially in the large format/premium theaters.

Friday, March 15, 2024 Third weekend of March 2024

On the chart Dune: Part Two (wk 3): $28.5M, -38%

Expected 'Figure they'll both be in the range of $30 million'; #1 'could go either way' Actual: KFP4 $30.1M, Dune $28.5M, $1.6M apart

In the note Although the new entries this week aren’t going to make much of a splash, combined with the titles that have opened the last couple of weeks, we should be about even with last year’s (Shazam! Fury of the Gods) weekend box-office . Although we’ll have a nice sequel next week (Ghostbusters: The Frozen Empire) it’s probably not going to be able to match the series high gross from last year’s John Wick: Chapter 4 at $74 million, so we’ll start digging our year to year hole again next week. This is pretty much going to be the story for a while, but hopefully we’ll have a few surprises that keep us close to last year. But if I had to guess right now, I'd say we’ll be down about 20% from last year. On a brighter note, it looks like SXSW is back as the ’Sundance for Movie goers who are comfortable identifying as normal’. Before the shutdown, SXSW was a terrific launching pad for broad appeal films like A Quiet Place and Ready Player One. But ever since we started getting together in groups again, the reach you would get from a Premier there was pretty light. Last year films like Dungeons & Dragons and Bottoms were good, and played gangbusters there, but the reach of the event was still short of what we would see pre-shutdown. There was talk last year that the main difference was the international press, they hadn’t come back yet (apparently the same issue applied to Sundance until this year) so that’s why we weren't seeing the same butterfly effect from the premiere. But from the data I see during my day job, it’s back. And here’s why it’s important. If you’ve got a film that fits into what SXSW is, in the big scheme of things, it’s a pretty good value. If you’re going to spend mid 6 figures anyway on a premier, why not do it in a place where it’s packed with opinion makers and influencers naturally? You do a big premiere for the publicity you get from the activity on the Carpet, but at something like a SXSW, you get the bonus of what goes on in the theater after the carpet (because it’s packed with influencers and opinion makers). And when you compare SXSW to something with similar reach like Cannes (at least domestically), it’s a bargain. But as we recover from the shutdown (and now the strikes) it’s nice to know we’ve got a few marketing tools getting back to normal. Anyway, with a similar accuracy and efficacy of someone yelling ‘careful!’ exactly .5 seconds after you whack your head, trip on something or slip on something; here are some thoughts on the weekend box-office. Dune Part Two, Kung Fu Panda 4 - This could go either way, and figure they’ll both be in the range of $30 million for the weekend.

Friday, March 22, 2024 Fourth weekend of March 2024

On the chart Dune: Part Two (wk 4): $17.6M, -38%

Expected 'Down 40% or so for a weekend in the mid teens': lost its large formats Actual: $17.6M, -38%

In the note Unless this is a one day wonder of some sort, should end up with a psa in the $30k range. As far as the other films, Dune Part Two doesn’t look quite as solid as last week (they lost a decent amount of the Large Format theaters to Ghostbusters), so figure it’s down 40% or so for a weekend in the mid teens.

Friday, March 29, 2024 Easter weekend 2024

On the chart Dune: Part Two (wk 5): $11.4M, -36%

In the note Why so low? Well, the big theater there (an old school IMAX) has a 70mm print of Dune Part Two playing there, and the gross in that theater for Dune would be in the top 5 for GxK, so there’s no issue there. However, that does show what the public wants and we have to start thinking about more Large Format experiences in each theater.

Where it turns up