Third weekend of April 2026

We’ve had a great start to the year, and it was terrific to see the trade headlines out of CinemaCon this week touting how strong Q1 was. But let’s not get too cocky because we’re going to have a couple of rough weekends (and a couple of potentially really rough weekends) between now and mid-June, but other than a calendar aberration (4th of July is on a Saturday this year, which isn’t generally good for the box-office), after that we should be fine and there’s some really exciting things going on for the back half of the year.

This weekend is going to be off from last year by a considerable amount (probably around 50%), but there are two really good reasons we’re so far behind. First, this was Sinners weekend and we have $40 million less of new title gross; but today last year was Good Friday, so with a holiday box-office accelerant the strong holdover lineup (like Minecraft) had a great weekend. But because Sinners was such an outlier last year week after week, it’s going to be a problem for this year’s total for a couple more weeks; and unless a couple of the titles of size the next couple of weeks grow into outliers, we’re going to keep giving back that surplus week after week. So buckle up for the flip side of the press articles we’ve been seeing lately and don’t be surprised if they tell us the sky is falling in about a month.

Speaking of the sky is falling, remember what it was like 4 years ago as we were just coming out of the Covid shutdown? Theatrical was over, streaming ruled and it was just a matter of time before the sector collapsed. But after that forced experiment where we collapsed windows, and all those (McKinsey type) folks who didn’t know shit were proved wrong, it turns out we had the windows thing correct. This week was a parade of Studio Heads at CinemaCon touting how they believe in windows, and although this seemed like a no brainer to some of us for a long time, it’s nice to see that it’s heading in the right direction.

But now that studios are stepping up to support the sector and are believers (or at least talking that way, including apparently Netflix), Exhibitors have to step it up too. Tom Rothman was dead on with his criticism of the theatrical experience on Monday, and if we’re going to get this sector back to where it was before the shutdown, they’ve got to start playing long instead of what’s right in front of their faces.

Iused to go to a lot of AMC theaters, but it’s been about a year since an independent theater re-opened (it used to be an Arclight) near me that does a really nice job; only 3 trailers, laser projection and good sound, good concessions, a well stocked bar (really nice and reasonably priced wine selection of both full and half bottles) and they even have a Pink’s hot dogs in the theater (although one thing that puzzles me, there’s no doorman and no one ever checks to see if you have a ticket, you just walk in). It’s a pretty painless experience where it’s all about the movie. But last weekend I wanted to see The Drama* with a more diverse audience and I went to an AMC where that would be the case, and I forgot how bad it was. I walked into the theater before the pre-show started and the house lights were so low it was giving off ‘inside of a rape van’ vibes. After the pre-show there were 8 trailers, a commercial in the middle of them (which clearly agitated the audience), and then once they bludgeon you with 8 trailers that all use the same marketing language (usually a classic rock song played real slow) and all feel the same, there were 4, yes 4!, more trailers for a bunch of sponsored horseshit (including Nicole Kidman) before the movie starts. All that was missing was Adam Aron’s vacation reel (sponsored by NetJets); and you can feel the frustration in the audience, it’s not good. It’s almost like once the movie starts, it’s digging out of an emotional hole the Theater has dragged you into. And as someone who used to go to a lot of AMC theatres, I looked back and where they are now has been a slow drip of ideas (and revenue streams), and that slow drip now adds up to a challenging consumer experience.

What’s especially troubling to me is that trailers in theaters are our most effective way of activating audiences, because we’re fishing where the fish are. And in a sector where tagalongs are crucial, getting a non core moviegoer to see a trailer might pay off in the future when a fan invites them, and that should be a good thing. One of the reasons Disney was such a machine before Covid was they had such a robust slate of big movies, and every big movie came attached with a trailer that got their audience to come back for the next big movie; so their success was linked from one IP to the next. But experiencing the difference between a theater circuit that runs 3 trailers and a circuit that runs 2x+ more than that; there were trailers I saw in a 3 trailer pod that played pretty strong, and when they played towards the end of an 8 trailer pod, didn’t land at all. Obviously this is a personal experience and is a very small sample size, but if this is the norm, what are we accomplishing by having so many trailers (besides the revenue for the Exhibitor)? And just to be clear here, I love watching trailers and love seeing/hearing how an audience reacts to them, but those big pods feel like diminishing returns in the room.

I understand that these revenue streams are crucial to the Exhibitors, but there’s short term revenue and long term revenue; and that’s where Tom was right, if we piss them off when we get them by being a little greedy during all the stuff leading up to the beginning of the movie, it’s not good for the long term. The Drama is a film that delivers and the audience had a good enough time that it probably washed the stench of all the BS going on before the movie. But there are a lot of films in theaters that are just good, and on their own that might be good enough to generate a future return to a theater for something else, but knowing what they’ve got to sit through (just to get to the film) might prevent that.

But the big circuits that generate most of the gross really need to take a step back and improve the consumer experience, because it’s more than just converting to recliners.

Anyway, with the same expected accuracy as Regal’s branding where they refuse to add ’Theaters’ or ‘Cinemas’ to their signage so consumers driving on the 101 or 405, or walking through Union Square think it’s a dry cleaner; here are some thoughts on the weekend box-office.

The Super Mario Galaxy Movie - It’s off considerably more than the first movie was off on it’s 3rd Friday, but they lost a decent amount of PLF showtimes this week and that’s a substantial factor at this point of the weekend. It’s down to running a little more than half of where the first film was running, which should put it in the low/mid 30’s.

Project Hail Mary - Having a great day today, but they got a lot of IMAX showtimes back and they also got a lot of the 70mm prints back on screen, and those theaters are crushing it today. Those theaters should keep the week to week drop at a pretty sexy number and this should end up in the high teens. That should be enough to push them past $300 million sometime next weekend.

Lee Cronin’s The Mummy - This film has an angle that’s becoming more and more challenging, clearing a title. Once you have an interesting enough take on a classic IP that’s good enough to get funded, you then have to figure out the title clearance issue. And having a title that elicits responses like ‘who?’ (other than Lee’s Mom) shows you how few options they probably had. I’m not sure that’s an issue here, but this looks pretty soft today, and it probably headed to about $12 million or so.

Normal - I guess this is the 3rd part of the Bob Odenkirk as Liam Neeson trilogy, but with a Magnolia ad budget instead of a Universal ad budget. Went 2000 runs and there’s not much going on here, maybe $1.6 million or a little better.

Busboys - David Spade and Theo Von’s self financed comedy went about 800 runs and there’s a couple of decent grosses, mostly in red states and smaller DMA’s. Looks good enough for $1.5 million or so.

Lorne - Went 400 runs and outside of a fair gross in the Upper West Side of Manhattan, it’s super soft. Maybe $150k or $200 for the weekend.

Mother Mary - Went exclusive in 5 theaters in NY and LA. They are all pretty good but NY is a little better (especially Lincoln Sq) than LA right now. Looks like a really strong psa in the 30’s.

• if you haven’t seen it, it’s terrific and probably my favorite movie released this year. Really interesting Writer/Director to keep an eye on.