Final weekend of February 2026

About this time last year we went into a slump at the box-office; over the corresponding 3 weekends last year (from the last weekend of February through the 2nd weekend of March) we only had about $48 million of new gross coming in. And that’s for all 7 films combined. So we’ll blast by the new films gross with just Scream this weekend, and we’ll have a run of film for a while that should pad the lead on the YTD. And it all starts this weekend, which will be waaaay ahead of the same weekend last year (Last Breath). April will be a little more problematic, it’s going to be hard to match the 1 2 punch of Minecraft and Sinners; we have some answers this year but at this point it doesn’t quite look like the outliers of last year.

Now that the dust is beginning to settle on the WBD sale (and who knows what kind of wackiness is waiting around the corner), the question is now ‘what does Netflix do with the movies they make?’. If indeed they were serious about getting into the theatrical sector, you would think they would be having conversations now about how they could build a viable Marketing and Distribution machine from the consolidation casualties (that would inevitably happen) of the combined companies. Because of the compelling data that says that movies with a Theatrical release perform better on the platform than movies that go straight to streaming, they’re now competing with a platform that has two studios that are really good at the Theatrical sector feeding their platform(s). And as a good as Netflix is at TV, HBO (similar to their counterparts at WB Theatrical) is having a moment now and they can go toe to toe with what Netflix is doing in the TV sector. So that leaves Netflix with their output deals (such as Sony) for Theatrical titles, and whatever 9 figure ‘flash in the pan’ movies they make that go straight to streaming. It would make sense for them to either ramp up to compete theatrically (and show Skydance they aren’t just going away), or step back and just make the $5 million Rom/Coms they built the platform on (which were essentially TV movies).

And then there’s the Awards play on their films, as theatrical has gotten healthier it’s become harder and harder to get a foothold past nominations. Would something like Frankenstein have been more of a contender had it done the same theatrical business something like One Battle After Another did? Who knows, but at least they would have had the theatrical revenue to offset the cost of the campaign. And the insane money they spend on the Awards campaign feels more and more like imposter syndrome.

So it would seem logical that since Netflix has been selling the ‘we’re buying this to do Theatrical’ angle, there’s an opportunity to do it here a whole lot cheaper than buying WBD. But as the old expression goes ‘you can talk the talk but can you walk the walk’, let’s see if Netflix has feet, we know they can speak. But if they want to stay competitive, especially with Amazon pulling away with the MGM strategy (in addition to the Sports, which rules the TV world from an Ad based point of view), they probably need to do something. 2026 is a whole different world than it was in 2021, they need to start thinking towards 2031. And, as I pointed out a couple of weeks ago, what does Apple do? They’re falling behind as well.

Anyway, with the same accuracy as the ‘watched’ button on the AMPAS screening portal being an ironclad indicator that the member has watched the film, here are some thoughts on the weekend box-office.

Scream VII 7 - There’s been a trend lately to add IMAX to your ad materials as a branding exercise, and we’ve seen various levels of lift that come from the quality based association with IMAX. Where it’s been most effective giving a lift is with the legacy IP’s like Alien, Predator and in this case Scream. It’s not across the board, but it sure like it pumps some life into the ticket sales, and it does it right away. Maybe it’s because the PLF screens always sell first, and often some of that is tied to the Subscriptions various circuits have in place (because it really doesn’t cost anything to buy), but it certainly seems like it gives titles like this a lift. The grosses tell pretty much the same story as we’ve seen in the recent Scream’s, it’s super Hispanic and a little better on the West Coast, just bigger because of the PLF upcharge. If it follows the same pattern as the last Scream, it looks like it should end up in the mid/high 50’s. The exits are a notch below the last Scream though, so I’m not sure it will follow the same path. But it’s a pretty good weekend for Paramount.

GOAT - Looking really good again this weekend, and it will be interesting to see Animal Animation on Animal Animation violence at the box-office next weekend when Hoppers comes in, but this looks down a nice 35% or so for a weekend around $11 million.

Wuthering Heights - Just okay today, should be down around the 50% norm for a weekend of around $7 million.

EPIC: Elvis Presley in Concert - They lost their IMAX’s but they expanded to a little less than 2000 runs. Looks like it’s going to net out around the same 3 million gross as last weekend.