First weekend of November 2025
We’re back to the Pre-Shutdown release schedule this weekend, and we have 5 new wide titles coming into the marketplace. Last year we only had two wide releases (Heretic, The Best Christmas Pageant Ever), unfortunately the 4 non-tentpole films this weekend aren’t going to add up to the same gross as the two films added up to last year, it will probably only be about 60% of it. However, having a tentpole like Predator in the marketplace should give us a surplus over last year, it won’t be much but a win is a win.
Over the next couple of weeks, we’re seeing two different approaches to legacy sci-fi IP, and it will be interesting to see how each approach plays out in the marketplace.
This week we have the 5th Theatrical Predator film (6 if you count the platform release of the last one, Prey; and there were 2 more dips in the IP pool paired with Alien), and the previous versions of the purely Predator IP were unapologeticly R, but this version is PG13. However, the only film with the Predator IP (Alien vs Predator* in 2004) that was rated PG13 was the highest opening weekend at $38 million. Over the 38 years since Predator opened it’s also had a slow leak of Star IP from A list Action stars (and oddly enough 2 future State Governors), to casts that have IMDB filmographies just below Glen Powell’s parents. And the platform film a couple of years ago had IMDB filmographies way below. But as far as the theatrical gross, the slow drip of lower star IP hasn’t really affected the opening gross very much, they all seem to wander towards the mid 20’s. But there are two aspects to this version of the IP to keep an eye on. Did the platform release of Prey water down the Theatrical value, and so far the answer is no. But since they pivoted slightly on the title and didn’t call it Predator: Prey, it might have been enough of a difference where the consumer doesn’t see this as a TV Movie IP now. But we also need to watch how this film does tomorrow, because if it’s flat off today the consumer probably didn’t notice the ratings change. However, if it’s up tomorrow, the choice to go with a PG13 was sound.
Next week we have another take on Legacy sci-fi IP that’s closer to what we had 38 years ago with (anti-gerrymander enthusiast) Arnold Schwarzenegger, which (oddly enough) was his first film after shooting Predator. This version has the same R rating as the first one, but Arnold was probably just a little deeper into his theatrical resume than Glen Powell is now**, but it will be interesting to take a look back at these two films after they are both open (and see the what the subsequent weeks bring in holding power) to understand how to approach these legacy sci-fi IP’s
Anyway, with the same expected accuracy as the decision to not air the Dodgers Victory Celebration on a 7 second delay (although they would have run out of delay very quickly), here are some thoughts on the weekend box-office.
Predator: Badlands - Looking a lot like Tron Ares today, but that film didn’t really play great and this film (with its much more Action/Adventure angle) has really good exits so far. For now, let’s say it’s in the low $30 million range, but if it plays more PG13 tomorrow and Sunday, it could do a little better.
Regretting You - For the few of you who follow the weekday box-office, this film was the top gross all week. It’s continuing that momentum today and it’s showing it might be around for a little while longer today, the grosses are up from last Friday (which of course was Halloween, but all the other films from last week are down today). What’s interesting about this film is how it slowly clawed its way back from a really rough RT score a couple of days before opening. If there’s an aspect to the business that’s still puzzling to everyone, it’s how to predict what the critics are going to say and how you can use that to throttle your review embargo. In a case like this where it got a lot of 2 1/2 star reviews that were marked ‘rotten’ by the critics, it’s especially challenging. We’ll see how the rest of this weekend plays out but right now this looks even with last week for a gross in the 7’s.
Sarah’s Oil - The folks at Kingdom Stories are incredibly consistent. They make movies that critics sniff at and dismiss them as TV movies, but audiences seem to always give them an A or an A+ Cinemascore. This film seems to be following the same pattern and with only 7 reviews up on RT at this writing, it looks like maybe MGM didn’t even ask them for their opinion (which seems smart). The exits so far seem consistent with what we see from Kingdom Stories and this looks like a weekend around 4 or 5 million.
Nuremberg - I’ve often spoken here about the promise of micro targeting fans when it comes to selling a movie, and being able to find those avid fans of an IP (and activating them towards a ticket purchase) has become much more efficient lately. Which makes this one a puzzle. People carrying a heavy, well-documented interest in this exact subject, the kind who leave digital breadcrumbs all over the place, were not served an ad for this film at all; never, zero, null. So the fact that it is a little soft outside the urban Art film strongholds isn’t really a surprise; it’s playing like any other Sony Classics Art Film, even though WWII fans tend to be evenly distributed across the country, so this feels like a blown opportunity. The exits look strong, but this looks like it’s going to top out at about $3 million for the weekend.
Bugonia - This one is really hard to read, because it’s not down much, but last Friday was Halloween and this could be a false positive. Based on the Friday to Saturday bump it didn’t look like Halloween had a ton of effect on it, so figure it’s down 35% for a weekend in the high 3’s.
Die My Love - One of the hot festival titles picked up by Mubi, it went on 2,000 screens today and it’s decent in the hard core art/upscale theaters, but it’s struggling once you get past them. With Jennifer Lawrence as a lead you would think her IP would mean more, but it’s just okay. The downside though is the exits aren’t strong so I’m not sure how it will play out over the weekend. Looks like a weekend of about $3 million.
Christie - I’m a little concerned about Sydney Sweeney’s IP these days. She’s had a lot of films come out lately, and it feels like there’s SS fatigue, and who knows what the jeans thing did to her IP. In this case this is a film that did fine with critics (although critics on Sports films make me crazy and too often dismiss them as ‘predictable’, which is weird, so you want a loss at the end? Isn’t the whole point of a sports movie is to see the win?), and even the critics that picked at this lauded SS for her performance. But outside of a good gross in Christie’s home town in West Virginia and a good gross in Century City, this isn’t good and looks a lot like SS’s last theatrical release, Eden. Looks like about $1.5 million for the weekend.
Sentimental Value - Went exclusive NY/LA in the usual 4 theaters. It’s pretty good in NY (probably because of Q and A’s), and it’s just okay in LA. Depending on if there are other Q and A’s (or if there were), figure it’s a psa in the 30’s.
- there were rumors of an on set kerfuffle between the two lead monsters where the Alien violated the MFN’s of the contract riders by having a bigger trailer ’to stretch out her Jaw to relax’, but those turned out to be false.
** Who only has a slightly better IMDB filmography than his Parents.