Fourth weekend of August 2025

And the struggle continues; it’s the second weekend of the rough slog we saw coming for a while. We had a really soft corresponding weekend last year with Blink Twice, The Forge and The Crow, but this weekend is so soft all the wide films being released this year will probably add up to the same number as the opening weekend of only Blink Twice. So we’re gonna still be down another 30% or so from last year and the bleeding continues. Right on cue, our trade press is already doing what they do best, saying the sky is falling, but missing the point that we are still dealing with the fallout of supply chain issues because of the strikes. It’s the movies, stupid.

One of the things that’s going to be interesting to watch this weekend is the 2 day (Sat and Sun) theatrical run for Netflix’s hit K-pop Demon Hunters, positioned as a ’sing along’. The trade press is already breathlessly praising it and predicting a gross in the teens, and I’m not sure why this is so special. It’s TV in a theater, we see that every couple of months with The Chosen (to similar numbers). However, what will be interesting to watch is how Netflix reacts in the press to it.

Since they ramped up their content output, they’ve been telling us that they would really prefer that you watch their content on TV, and any theatrical footprint was just a vanity release for film makers (and so their bloated Awards department could swear that it was a theatrical film, even though their C suite constantly tells everyone they want you to watch it on TV). Even a theatrical release like Glass Onion was met with a mumble of ‘it’s fine’ in the press, and they didn’t report grosses; mostly because it would show how they squandered a great opportunity in the theatrical sector.

So it will be interesting to see what they do if this is #1 this weekend; but to be #1 they have to report grosses and they’re allergic to that. But what’s interesting here is that the power of a shared experience in a theater is just different than watching something on TV, and it’s an experience consumers are willing to pay for. But this is a one off, and if it’s as successful as it sounds like it’s going to be, it’s pretty much the blind squirrel finding an acorn. If anyone thinks that something like this is going to change Netflix’s mind about theatrical, forget about it, they don’t want that. They do TV and they are an insanely successful machine at doing it; they don’t have the talent pool to get theatrical done, this was just luck. The one good thing about this release is that they did it on a weekend that was really wide open, which shows you at least one person over there knows something about the business.

Anyway, with the same intended accuracy as being promised a view from United seat 11A, here are some thoughts on the weekend box-office.

Weapons - Looks solid again this weekend, looks mid teens.

Freakier Friday - Also looking solid for a weekend of about 9.

Honey Don’t - Only went 1400 runs, and this film from a Cohen Brother has some pretty solid numbers in places that like films from a Cohen Brother. Looks like a nice weekend in the mid 3’s.

Ne Zha II - This multi billion dollar blockbuster from China has been given a fresh sound using English speaking voice talent and is being distributed by A24. It doesn’t look like there’s much of an appetite for this version, they went 2000 runs and it looks like a weekend of around $2 million.

Relay - Also went 1400 runs, but there’s not really much going on anywhere here. Figure a weekend in the 1.5 to 1.8 range.

Eden - The spigot of Sydney Sweeney movies is still stuck open, and this time her film is opening at 600 theaters. Just like last week’s Sydney Sweeney movie of the week, it looks like 500k to 600k.

Splitsville - Went exclusive at 5 theaters in NY and LA, it’s decent but some Q and A’s in NY is pushing those grosses higher than LA. I’m not sure how many more Q and A’s they have over the weekend but figure it will end up with a psa in the low/mid teens.

Lurker - Went 4 runs in NY and LA, and the LA runs have Q and A’s, so they’re a little better than the NY runs today. Figure a psa around 11k or 12k with a shot at the teens.