Midweek dispatch, July 4th setup

The only film opening this week is Jurassic World Rebirth, and because of the way the calendar sets up this year (with 4th of July on Friday) you kinda have to open on Wednesday. 4th of July is a unique box-office day because it’s usually okay, and it can be great if there’s a decent amount of rain, or it can be a little light if the weather is better for outdoor activities. So if you go this weekend you really can’ t open on the 4th. But going on Wednesday with a movie of size like Jurassic World is super risky, because playability can have a big impact on the total if the movie doesn’t deliver quality wise, and you’re fighting word of mouth by the time you get to the weekend. It’s a similar idea as we see on films that open the day before Thanksgiving.

So far it doesn’t look like the audience is sniffing at this the same way the critics did (and usually do with these films), so the iffy date choice doesn’t look like it’s going to be an issue for Universal. Considering this is a reboot cast wise, at this point it looks like no one really noticed. Right now this looks like it’s in the very high 20’s to very low 30’s for today, so maybe call it 30 give or take a little. Unless the 4th is weird this year box-office wise or this runs into playability issues, figure the 5 day ends up around 5x today, so as a hipshot this looks like $140 million to $160 million for the 5 day, but there’s a lot of wiggle in that.

Unless something weird happens between now and Friday, figure you won’t have to deal with my lunatic rantings until next Friday, so everyone have a great 4th.