Fourth weekend of April 2025
’There’s nothing wrong with this business that a couple of good films can’t fix’. So true nearly 100 years ago and it’s a saying that’s rearing its head in a big way today. I thought we would have enough box office this weekend to be nicely ahead of this weekend last year (Challengers, Unsung Hero, Boy Kills World), but because of movies people want to see in theaters, we’re going to blow last year away again and it’s probably going to be more than double last year’s total. Because Disney/Marvel is back to reclaim the first week in May, we’ll be way ahead again next week and we might even be competitive the week after, where we don’t have a lot of new film gross coming in vs Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes last year. But because we’ve got some movies in theaters that look like they’re going to be around for a while, the sector looks bright in the near future.
Speaking of seeing movies in theaters, the box-office gods are speaking again, and almost immediately after being called ‘outmoded’ there’s some box-office magic going on. But being called ‘outmoded’ makes sense for an insanely rich man with a screening room in his Mansion; why would anyone want to go to a theatre when you have a screening room in your Mansion? Eeeww, common folks living in 900 sq foot apartments, as if. And the comment of ‘most people can’t walk to a movie theater’ also makes sense when you can walk down the hallway to your personal theater. I guess using that logic, Restaurants are ‘outmoded’ too, since everyone has a kitchen and it’s way better to stay at home or get ’to go’ instead of going out to a restaurant. And the data clearly backs that up, and the percentage of people who eat a meal at home instead of in a Restaurant is staggering. The consumer has spoken, Restaurants are outmoded.
I spoke about how 70mm is a powerful force in the marketplace these days, and we need more of it. But after seeing Sinners last weekend, there’s an issue with shooting Large Format these days; no one seems to be doing anything with it. One of the hangups with Sinners (besides the way the deal was constructed) was the production cost, and shooting on 65mm (and on film in general) was part of that high cost. But seeing the film, I’d be surprised if there’s more than 10% of the film that used a lens longer than 50mm, so it just creates a lot of work and cost without justification. You look at a couple of other Large Format films like Oppenheimer and Hateful Eight, and both films were (for the most part) intimate indoor movies. With Large Format being a rare film term that seems to mean something to the consumer, and consumers will come to a theater because of it, shoot something with scope and depth to justify the cost and trouble; and give moviegoers something visually they can talk about. We can’t be sure this consumer attraction will last if we keep telling them this is worth the extra cost, but give them a movie that’s mostly a courtroom drama or a party in a bar. So for those of you who get this and have the power to say ‘yes’, the next time a film maker wants shoot on Large Format film, make them justify it. Remember how much 3D drove ticket sales when it was hot? Avatar made that tip and did something with the format so you needed to see it that way, but no one else did so it faded out. Let’s not repeat the mistake we made with that opportunity.
Anyway, based on something I heard from someone taking a selfie at the Vatican with the Pope’s body in the background, here are some thoughts on the weekend box-office.
Sinners - There’s some Theatrical Magic going on this weekend with this movie, and if you open your window and listen very carefully for the ‘yeah, but’ media from last weekend you’ll hear……nothing. The numbers today are nothing short of spectacular, and it’s actually holding better today than Get Out did on its 2nd Friday and that ended up down only 15% for its 2nd weekend. But this film is coming off a Good Friday opening day, and that day is a pretty good economic accelerator so the fact that this film isn’t down much today, this film looks like it’s going to be around for a while. The 70mm theaters are all up today from last Friday, but that’s happening for a reason; WB is doing something super brilliant this week; everyone who goes to a 70mm theater gets a souvenir strip of 70mm film (you have to do something with all those prints AMC scratched last weekend). If the rest of the weekend holds up like it looks today, this could end the weekend down a scant percentage for a stunning weekend in the high 30’s. And the ‘yeah but’ crowd will watch as this flies past $100 million this weekend, and actually looks like it’s headed past $200 million domestically.
The Accountant 2 - Sometimes the release schedule gods giveth and sometimes they taketh. MGM had a terrific campaign for this sequel, starting with the Premier at SXSW which really gave this campaign a jolt. The campaign was so good here, they probably did enough to get this film into the high 20’s with a shot at 30; but when an outlier like Sinners not only over performs it’s opening weekend, but has a holdover weekend that’s in the top 1% of 2nd weekends, it challenges you for the tag alongs and the walk up business. It’s still really good and it has really good exits, but for now it looks like a gross very similar to what The Accountant opened to at $23 million or so. However, with a lot of satisfying movies in the marketplace, the tide lifts all boats and sometimes we see Saturdays over perform across the board, so there could be an upside tomorrow.
Star Wars III: Revenge of the Sith - Usually you see the Star Wars nuts coming out in droves in relation to the punny Star Wars Day (May the 4th be with you 🤦♂️), but jeez did Disney get something going today. The grosses today are insanely good (especially for a movie that felt like it was 12 hours long when I saw it first run), and the exits are amazing. So….🤷♂️, this makes me feel really out of touch. Sometimes these re-issues are sometimes front loaded, so we could see a big drop-off tomorrow, but for now I’ll say $20 million.
A Minecraft Movie - With most of the kids out of school last Friday, it’s way down today. But it should right itself tomorrow and still finish the weekend in the high teens.
Until Dawn - This Horror Video Game IP looks about the same level as we’ve been seeing from non Video Game IP, and looks like a weekend of 8 or 9 million.
The Legend of Ochi - Expanded to 1200 screens this week and doesn’t look like much, maybe $1 million for the weekend.
On Swift Horses - Went 750 runs and there’s very little going on here, maybe $500k for the weekend.