Third weekend of March 2025

We’ve finally got a title that’s going to do some business this weekend, and there’s a chance we could do about the same business as we did on this weekend last year (Ghostbusters: Afterlife, Immaculate, Late Night with the Devil), but if we don’t get there, it’s a least going to be close. And that’s a lot better than what we’ve been seeing the last couple of weeks. Because the last couple of weeks have been so soft (still due to the supply chain issues from the strikes), we’ll give up all of the cushion we built up earlier this year and we’re now down 5% from last year. Even though we have 4 wide films coming in next week that will add up to a decent amount of gross, the 2nd part of Legendary’s 1 - 2 2024 punch, Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire did double what the new films might do next week. So we’ll dig deeper into the red from last year. The good news is that April and May last year were pretty hit and miss, and this year is more hit and we should end up with a net positive, and have a good shot at getting even with last year by the time we get through Memorial Day.

As we finally move to the next step of the 4 year journey of Snow White this weekend; and actually when you think about the time frame to even get a film of this size to green light, it’s probably closer to 6 years, it’s important to remember how hard this business is when we don’t have a crystal ball to look into the future. When you greenlight films, you’re often trying to be ahead of the curve; and that applies to both star power and culture. When Snow White was gestating, think of where we were. Hamilton had been so successful there was actually a term applied to non-traditional ethnic casting called ‘Hamilton Rules’, Bridgerton had dropped at Christmas 2020 and was a smash success. So the idea of building a project that followed the breadcrumbs of where everything was going is very normal in our business. But because we don’t have a crystal ball, things change and the angry mob started coming for culture that went by ‘Hamilton Rules’. Not that we haven’t dealt with that mob before and they are usually wrong, such as freaking out when Heath Ledger was cast as Joker in The Dark Knight. But because a lot of great art comes from taking risks and doing something new, you take those risks looking to do something groundbreaking, but those risks don’t always work out.

So in this case there were two factors that caused significant headwinds for Snow White. First, as you all know Disney has become a target in the culture wars because of their creative choices (and of course, because of their size and influence), and it seems like they are only slightly ahead of Bronny James when it comes to being a target by the online mob. But when you take a risk and make creative choices that are edgy, it needs to work out and become great art, and it seems like they came up short there. Now I still don’t know anyone who sets out to make an ‘okay’ movie, but it happens. But if the choices here had worked out all that noise would have gone away this weekend. And if you need an example of how that can happen, look at Wicked.

If Disney had made Wicked, the casting of an AA actress in a role that traditionally was played by a White actress would have enraged the online mob at a similar level as what happened with Snow White, mostly because it’s Disney (in the current media environment). But because it wasn’t Disney, there was some pushback, but it was only a ripple. And that all went away when the choice ended up being a home run, and even if Disney had made Wicked, it would have been a home run and it all would have gone away. And unfortunately that’s where we are today in the world. But where I get really depressed is where we (as an industry) pile on, and seem to think that by taking chances with a known (and beloved) IP, it was dead from the jump. Anyone in any position of power in this sector has taken some chances to get there, and none of us had ever batted 100% with those choices.

Anyway, with the same expected accuracy of a Social Security dead person purge, here are some thoughts on the weekend box-office.

Disney’s Snow White - Considering where the box-office has been the last couple of weeks, this is a godsend, and it’s not half bad. What is super interesting is how it’s playing; especially considering all the noise as we got to release. It’s playing way less ‘Disney’ and way more ’Showtunes’, or in other words it looks more like Wicked than Moana 2. Lincoln Sq in NY and a lot of LA theaters are at the top of the sheet and Disney strongholds like Salt Lake City are way farther down the list. Whether that has anything to do with the anti Disney noise, who knows? But since we are in the part of the calendar where we have certain parts of the country on Spring Break School holiday, the variances from market to market could be driven by kids out of school. What was unfortunate here is that this film got caught in the dreaded Rotten Tomatoes 2 1/2 star trap. A lot of the reviews were 2 1/2 stars, and you can get lucky and end up with a RT score in the 80’s or you can end up with a score in the 20’s. The exits so far are just okay, so we’ll have to see where this goes tomorrow when all the kids are available. If it plays like a Disney film, it has a shot of getting well into the 50’s, but if it plays more ’showtuney’, it might not get past 50.

Alto Knights - Doesn’t look great right now, it’s super coastal and big city (as you would expect) and looks headed to a weekend of about $3 million.

Magazine Dreams - The long delayed Jonathan Majors Sundance hit finally hits 800 theaters this weekend. Outside of a couple of theaters in LA and NY, it’s not much and will probably add up to about $400k for the weekend.