Final weekend of February 2025
Okay, it was fun while it lasted but our streak of beating last years weekend totals will come to a crashing halt this weekend. We built up a nice 21% cushion over last year during the first two months of the year, but because Dune 2 was such a monster last year (and we have nothing close this year), we’ll only gross about half of what we did last year this weekend. And it’s going to get worse next week because in 2024 Kung Fu Panda 4 opened to $58 million and we have no answer for that either. We’ve got a shot at a similar weekend in 3 weeks with Snow White, but even that weekend last year had Ghostbusters on it, so if we beat last year it’s not going to be by much. April isn’t great, but once we get to May it looks like we can get back in the plus column on a weekly basis. But, as always it’s nothing to do with the health of the business, it’s the movies.
Good luck to all of you (who receive this nonsense I write every week) who are nominees this Sunday. But for someone who’s been around as long as I have, I keep scratching my head at the crazy economics that come with being a nominated film, and keep wondering if there’s any economic upside to any of it. Back when I was first starting in the business, the amount of business a film did after being nominated for an Oscar was pretty substantial, and that’s when the ceremony was a couple weeks later than it is now. So spending money on an awards campaign had some real ROI. But most of the nominated films (by the time they get nominated) are pretty played out, and once they get to the actual award presentation, they’re out of theaters.
Looking at how crazy expensive it is to play the game, it’s no wonder that the players who lean into the process are the ones who are looking at the long game, and not the ROI connected to the film being nominated. For the streamers, it’s just a simple case of imposter syndrome; they want theatrical filmmakers to work for them on their movies that ; and the Academy makes that very easy with their loose qualification criteria. And playing the Oscar game hard is just like having a bigger ad in the filmmaker version of Indeed.com [http://Indeed.com]. As a great example of how little the Oscar ROI matters for the streamers, have you ever seen a Best Picture winner vanish into the ‘end of Raiders of the Lost Ark warehouse faster than CODA? But now Apple is the one (of the two) pure streamers that has won a Best Picture Oscar. What’s a little weird here is that Apple didn’t make CODA, they bought it finished, but that’s important too because you need credibility when you’re trying to buy something after a festival debut.
It’s a little different with the boutique’s, and it’s a little more organic than the streamers because the boutiques tend to make the type of films that naturally lean towards the Awards wheelhouse, so it makes perfect sense that they need to attract the filmmakers that are awards enthusiasts*. And the boutiques are very theatrical focused, so you don’t have to worry if the buyer of your movie has their fingers crossed behind their backs when you sell your film to them, as they promise you a theatrical release.
But back to my original question, where’s the ROI on all this money being spent on awards campaigns? It used to show up in the grosses, but is this just all vanity spend now? Does it show up anywhere in the downstream funnels? Does it add to library value? If anyone can tell me, I’d love to know.
One more Oscar related rant. As we move towards the (much deserved) Oscar for Casting, I’d still love to have this award be given for films that were released 5 years ago, just so we could understand how brilliant the work of casting directors can be. Just look at the films from 2019 that could be some of this year’s eligible Nominees: Once Upon a Time… in Hollywood (pretty much the whole Manson family are Oscar nominees now), Little Women, Knives Out, 1917, Yesterday, Midsommar. So many new faces that someone took a chance on, and not only were they brilliant in the movie that year, but in the years after showed us all how brilliant the casting work was. But how many of them would have been nominated that year?
Anyway, with the same expected accuracy as a regular government paycheck, here are some thoughts on the weekend box-office.
Captain America: Brave New World - Even though there’s very little new competition, it’s still dropping a little faster than Marvel films do. Figure it’s down 50% or a little more for a weekend in the low/mid teens.
Last Breath - Focus went wide on 3000 screens with this true story thriller, and it seems to be playing a little bit better in the heartland than the coasts; with Texas leading the way. Should be good enough for something in the mid 6’s for the weekend.
Mobile Suit Gundam GQuuuuuuuX : Beginning - No, I didn’t just pass out on my keyboard that’s actually an Anime title. Doesn’t look like much though, maybe $900k on 800 screens.
- I know, everyone in the business is an awards enthusiast.