Fourth weekend of January 2025
It’s a mixture of good news and bad news this weekend. The good news is that we’re probably going to beat the same weekend last year (Fighter), the bad news is that this weekend on the calendar has been pretty sucky post shutdown, so it’s the high side of bad. For the next couple of weeks it’s same same, and even though we don’t have any films that are going to set the world on fire, it’s been that way for the last couple of years, so we have to break out of the new normal and get back to the old normal one of these years.
Congratulations to all of you who are now Oscar Nominees, and this seems like one of the most wide open years we’ve had in a long time. Because it’s so wide open, it will be interesting to see which films have the legs to get through the next couple of weeks. Since negative campaigning is a factor these days (a Harvey innovation), a couple of the nominees have aspects that could be a problem for them as the voters buckle down and make their decisions. Everything from being ’too successful’ at the box-office (so they dismiss it) to being way too long (so they don’t watch it) to being a TV movie* (which they should care about); all might become factors when it comes to getting to the finish line.
But the ‘watching nominated films on TV thing’ is something that’s been a factor for quite a while, and films that play better on TV than in a theater keep winning. As someone who watches a lot of movies via a link on my TV before I see it in a theater during a test screening, it never ceases to amaze me how differently (and always better) it plays in a theater. You can go all the way back to 1977 when Annie Hall beat out The Goodbye Girl, Star Wars, Julia and The Turning Point for Best Picture; the path to get the award by going through TV viewing that year was a harbinger of things to come.
Back in the late 70’s, cable TV was just beginning to take hold; HBO (then branded as Home Box Office) was only a couple of years old and there were a couple of national OTA pay TV services called ON Tv and SelecTV. But the cable company that served most of the voter-rich Hollywood/West Side LA/ South end of the Valley was Theta Cable, and they went their own direction with the Z Channel. Since Annie Hall had opened the previous Easter, and the Oscars were in April back then, it had expired its theatrical run; and someone at United Artists had the revolutionary idea of airing it on Z Channel during awards season. The win of Annie Hall was shocking when it happened, think of it as a similar event as when Andrea Risenborough was nominated a couple of years ago for To Leslie; the whole industry was scratching their heads saying ‘how did that happen?’ What’s super interesting about the other nominees that Annie Hall beat out is that 3 of the 4 were fairly intimate movies, and also would have played well on TV (obviously Star Wars was the opposite and was actually one of the catalysts that make 70mm Dolby a thing), but because they went in the standard ‘awards bait’ season late in the year, they were still in theaters, so none of them could counter. As a side note, starting in the early 80’s, Z Channel was programmed by a massive film fan and ex Screenwriter (the late Jerry Harvey [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jerry_Harvey_(screenwriter)]), and was like having a film history class as a Movie channel. There’s actually a doc about it from 2004 called Z Channel: A Magnificent Obsession.
But we are in an industry that adapts very quickly, and the next year there were a lot of ‘Academy Screenings’ on Z Channel, which of course morphed into VHS screeners which became DVD screeners which became the App. But over the years we’ve seen films win where the scope of the movie was better suited to the small screen than the big screen. Crash over Brokeback Mountain, Spotlight over The Revenant, Moonlight over La La Land (eventually); the movies that play better on the small screen keep winning.
Once we hit the pandemic, we had two TV movies* win Best Picture (Nomadland and Coda), and both those years should have an asterisk because there wasn’t much choice when it came to distribution methods. But the last two years, the Best Picture Winner has leaned towards the theatrical experience; Everything Everywhere ended up at $77 million dbo and was the 3rd highest grossing nominated film (behind Top Gun Maverick and Elvis) and Oppenheimer was a smash hit in theaters, but was especially good in IMAX and 70mm. How will this come into play this year? There’s certainly a trend in nominations; in 2021 6 of the 8 nominees had very little theatrical presence or didn’t report grosses, in 2022 it was down to 3 of the 9 and for the last two years it’s been one.
Again we have one nominee this year that’s a TV movie* with Amelia Perez, and there are some out there saying it’s the front runner (but those opinions are more than likely bought and paid for by the industrial awards complex). The wrinkle this time is North America is the only place it’s a TV movie, it’s theatrical everywhere else, so there could be a difference in the way the domestic based voters vote vs the voters who live in the rest of the world. As I mentioned above, there’s also the negative campaigning, and because I have a couple of non-industry friends of Mexican descent who think the movie is a massive POS; and are a little (or maybe more than a little) pissed off because it’s getting the attention it’s getting, I’m curious to see if that becomes a thing.
But back to my original point, as far as voters watching the bulk of the films on their TV’s, the toothpaste has been out of the tube for 47 years. Since Best Picture is now subject to DEI qualifications, is it out of the realm of possibilities that you have to have seen all the films nominated in a theater (only for Best Picture) in order to vote on it? If we’re going to make all the creators jump through hoops to qualify, shouldn’t we jump through one so we give them the chance to experience their work in a theater (where it was intended for)? As someone who takes voting very seriously (I abstain from any award where I haven’t seen all the films), I’d do it. Can it happen, of course not. But at some point we have to work a little harder to be better.
Anyway, with the same expected accuracy as a Paramount Global buyout closing date, here are some thoughts on the weekend box-office.
Flight Plan - 2025 is shaping up much better for Lion’s Gate than 2024, and now they look like they have their 2nd #1 in a row. Even though LG hasn’t really changed their marketing strategy, the results are much better, so as usual, it’s the movies. Although LA is leading the way here (and it’s been that way since the startup after the pandemic), there’s some really good grosses in the flyover states, and that’s usually Mark Wahlberg’s wheelhouse. This got beat up pretty good by the critics, which could be more of a critics beef with Mel Gibson as director; but the audience scores are decent. But unless it falls apart after tonight, it looks like about $11 million for the weekend.
One of Them Days - These girls are showing some legs today, it’s not down much at all, and some of the better AA theaters are just as good as last week. As usual, they don’t have the gross from the Thursday opening last week to use this weekend, so it’s going to look down more than it is, but it’s still only going to be down 45% or so for a weekend of about $7 million. On a pure 3 day to 3 day gross, it’s only going to be down about 35%; pretty amazing considering last weekend was a holiday weekend.
Presence - Went 1700 runs and it’s decent in the big cities, but falls off pretty hard once you get out of the more sophisticated areas. Looks like a weekend of about $3 million.
Brave the Dark - Angel studios has a problem. They keep making good movies that people like, but as you look at the grosses you can tell (because they don’t grow with walk up customers) they are only reaching moviegoers in their walled garden. Clearly they have to rethink they’re marketing strategy to make their films viable for tag alongs and walk ups. They went 2000 runs and this looks like a weekend in the mid 2’s.
The holdovers all look pretty good today, but A Complete Unknown seems to be separating from the pack. Most of the films should be down a decent 35% from last weekend, but ACU looks like it’s going to be down 15% or so.
*I’m defining a TV movie as a film that doesn’t report grosses, if you don’t report grosses; you’re not theatrical, it’s just a publicity event for TV viewing.