July 4th 2024, the holiday dispatch

Prediction scorecard
The note's Friday-afternoon calls vs. what the weekend actually did. Actuals verified against published domestic box-office results.
1 hit 1 near
Despicable Me 4 (Thursday day gross)
The call
'Right now I'll take a hipshot and say it does about $20 million, but I'm not sure it will get there'
Actual
~$20.6M implied
Hit
Sound of Hope: Possum Trot (day)
The call
'Probably headed to about $1.6 million or so today, plus whatever they did last night'
Actual
$3.6M opening day incl. previews
Near
Faith-audience group presales front-loaded the holiday beyond the model.