First weekend of June 2023
The Theatrical sector continues to roll in a big way this weekend, and since the weekend after Memorial Day is a little bit of an ‘off’ weekend historically, this will probably be a record (besting 2017 when Wonder Woman opened) for the weekend after Memorial Day. And even though the new titles are doing most of the work here, it’s the deep roster of holdovers that will put it over the top and set a record. Having a good slate of movies in the theaters (and having movies that people like as well) helps remind people why the theatrical experience is worth the cost and time of leaving the house.
Of course all of you have heard the cliche ’the definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over again, but expecting a different result’. However, in order to succeed in this business you have to be a little insane, so it doesn’t always apply here. The variation in the creative side of filmmaking is ‘doing the same thing over and over again and expecting the same result, that’s insanity here’. Why? Because we learned that doing a sequel that’s the same movie as before usually results in diminishing returns.
Back in the late 60’s and early 70’s a new wave of film makers thought the films that were coming out of the studio system were tired and wanted to tell stories that were edgier, darker and grittier; and it took a little bit of perceived insanity (and a decent amount of independent financing) to show that experimenting with grainy film and different lighting techniques could lead to fresher storytelling. At first they were dismissed because the films looked strange and cheap (because it wasn’t what audiences were used to), but great stories and great films changed the insane to the norm.
In the late 80’s, Steve Jobs and Pixar introduced the idea of computer animation, and the first feature that realized their vision, The Rescuers Down Under showed what the possibilities were; but didn’t quite look like what audiences were used to, so the box office was just okay. But then came Beauty and the Beast, and not only did the process improve (there were sequences that looked nothing like we’d ever seen before in an Animated film) but the storytelling was spectacular and audiences now expected a different look to animated films.
A couple of years ago Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse opened to $35 million, which is pretty low for a top shelf IP like Spider-Man, even for an animated take. But because you have to be a little insane in this business and take some risks to freshen things up, the style of animation they chose was something audiences hadn’t seen before and it would probably be best described as Anime adjacent. You wonder what the same film would have grossed had they chosen to go the standard Pixaresque route, and I would guess it would have been significantly better. But getting that first film open to what it opened to (which seems more miraculous as we see films that deviate from the norm drop dead), gave it a chance to breathe and the superior storytelling made the cutting edge visuals a non issue, and maybe turned it into a plus.
Now they can reap the benefits of the risk they took by making this film look the way it did. If they had gone the standard route and made this look like every big budget Animated film we’ve seen for the last 30 years, I’m not sure it would be doing this level of business; it would be good, but the same animation style that held this back the first time around might be the fresh aspect that is sending into hyper drive this time. If they had used the same animation style we’ve seen over and over again, as good as this movie is, this still could have felt ’sequel-y’ and I’m not sure it would pop the way it’s popping now.
Because this film is opening so well, it gives film makers that work in the animation sector another visual tool in the toolbox, and will hopefully lead to others pushing the envelope in this genre when it comes to the style of animation. Success after risk can lead to other success (although it seems like it’s the 2nd time that pays off, the first time is just a primer), and hopefully this emboldens the green light committees in the business to take some chances on films that look a little differently.
Anyway, with the accuracy associated with the motto on the Sackler Family Crest, primum gustum est liber, here are some thoughts on the weekend box office.
Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse Part 1 - This is clearly very good, and the satisfaction with the first film is showing up today big time. I don’t think I remember a film where the opening weekend of a sequel is 3x the opening weekend of the first version, and it was probably all driven by that satisfaction. What’s interesting about the grosses here in relation to the first film is that (on the first film) there were about 50 theaters that played like it was a $100 million opening and the rest of the theaters played like a $12 million opening, but they’re all playing in that top grossing level on this film. Because the first film did so much good work in making audiences feel comfortable with the edgy look of this film, that look is probably a plus this time. Right now it’s tracking to about 15% better than Little Mermaid right now, but Little Mermaid had so so bumps from day to day last weekend, so this might end up better. The Marvel audience can be a little front loaded as well, so I’ll stay pretty conservative here and say it’s around $100 million, but if this holds up tonight it will soar past that. But this is a groundbreaking weekend.
The Little Mermaid - There’s a story about Michael Jordan where people would say to him ‘man, I would love to be you for a day’. He would always respond ’try being me for a month and you’ll kill yourself’. A couple of years ago, when Disney was hitting on all cylinders, board rooms at studios all over town were trying to be more like Disney. Now, because everyone with a glass half empty opinion on Disney’s product seems to be getting press coverage, when Disney people hear that other companies are trying to be them, they respond (in a typical Disney branded way) ‘hey, be our guest’. It’s shocking to see the amount of half-witted agenda driven shots this film has taken since it opened, and I wondered if I’d see any downstream effect in the holdover today. However, it’s about the same drop as Aladdin had on its 2nd Friday, so, especially in the face of a monster opening today, it’s pretty good. Aladdin dropped 52% in its 2nd weekend, so figure this drops just a little more and finishes the weekend in the low 40s.
The Boogeyman - Usually you can get a lift when a Stephen King IP comes to the screen, but apparently films based on short stories don’t quite goose the numbers the way a full book does. It’s not bad, but it’s not great either. Looks like a weekend in the very low teens.
Past Lives - Hey look at this, a specialty film doing business like it’s 2019….. This A24 Drama went 4 runs in NY and LA, and what’s nice is The Grove is holding its own with Century City and the two traditional NY runs. As we look for a suitable replacement for The Landmark and The Arclight Hollywood, this is good news. Looks like an impressive psa of $35k or so.