Black Widow weekend 2021

As you may have heard, it’s going to be a great weekend at the box-office, and of course (as usual) it’s Disney that’s driving it. But before the (usually) lazy press and industry ‘experts’ start saying that this is the new model and everything should go day and date, let’s make something very clear; streaming on a subscription service and offering a film via PVOD are two different ideas with two very different economic purchase thresholds. Why? One is essentially free and the other costs $30. But something like this film offers a little bit of a wrinkle. Since Sony and Paramount started treating Marvel IP with respect (instead of contempt), the seed was planted that Disney grew into a monster once they bought Marvel. They spent a shit ton of money making films that were big screen spectaculars and were a blast to see with a full theater. So if you’re a couple and you’re interested in seeing something like Black Widow (which like most Disney/Marvel films, makes a good case for seeing on the biggest screen possible), do you want to go out to a theater and see it on the big screen, or so you want to stay home and see it, and pay about the same price? You can’t say that about the subscription services because you’re already paying for it, and you probably really want to get out of the house if you want to pay for something you’re probably already paying for, even if it’s making a solid case for theatrical viewing. That $30 is a pretty big difference, and as usual Disney is thinking on a different (and longer term) level, because either way they’re capturing top tier revenue.

For a long time, the idea has been floated about a PVOD availability day and date with Theatrical, but until the pandemic the exhibitors held all the cards. If a studio tried to get them to give it a shot, the exhibitors just replied ‘it’s your film, do whatever you want, but we’ll pass’, and it died there. But now with exhibitors on their heels financially and ‘pandemic rules’ (otherwise known as no rules) are in place, we’re seeing new ideas happen and we’re learning a lot about consumer behavior. Think of Covid as theatrical’s version of going away to college, you experiment with a lot of stuff that might open your mind, you do some stuff you will never speak of again, you do some stuff that might hurt you in the long term; but at the time it all feels logical.

So is there an effect from the PVOD availability on the theatrical box-office gross? Yes, there’s an effect, but it looks like in this case it looks like less than any film we’ve seen during the college years covid experimentation period, and that probably has a lot to do with the theatrical seeds that Marvel has sown over the years. You can’t say that about most films, so this is probably an outlier. Once we see where this film lands after the weekend, as well as how it holds up for the rest of the theatrical run, we’ll know more. But when you think of what all the ’single character’ Marvel films do, from* Ant-Man* in the high 50’s to Captain Marvel at 150, this is probably going to end up somewhere below the halfway point. At the end of the day, these films are so expensive you have to count every penny, so there are two questions that you have to ask. First, if this wasn’t on PVOD this weekend, how many of the people that bought this on PVOD would have gone to a theater to see it? Second, for the consumers that wouldn’t have gone to a theater to see it (if it wasn’t on PVOD), would they have still paid PVOD prices for it X amount of days down the road? It’s something we probably will never know, but it’s worth discussion. Anyway, based on something I overheard Trevor Bauer saying as he was walking out of a real doll store, here are some thoughts on the weekend box-office.

Black Widow - This film actually wasn’t a pure day and date with PVOD, it had a 1 day window. The PVOD availability didn’t happen till midnight so last night all the Marvel fans (who couldn’t wait) forced a few more dollars into the theatrical side of the pie, so another smart Disney move. It looks great today too, but these films available online tend to run out of steam a little faster than the pure theatrical films do, so we could see the same flatness as we’ve seen on other day and date films. Figure that 90ish you’ve been reading in the trades is as good as anything right now, but figure it’s probably +/- $5 milliion from that.

The Universal Trio (Boss Baby 2, F9, Purge Forever) - They’re all taking a pretty good hit today, all look down >50% right now.

A Quiet Place Part II - Still rock solid and down only about 30% on a theater to theater basis, but with Black Widow coming into the marketplace they lost a decent amount of runs, so it will be down a little more than that.