Final weekend of April 2021

There not much new going on at the box-office this weekend, but it’s still looking sunnier and sunnier every day. Releases are moving up and dropping in, and the two biggest players in Theatrical; the New York/New Jersey/Connecticut area and California, are making noises about a full reopening by the beginning of July. We just have to get the snowflakes out there who received a Doctorate in Science over the last year (actually just some posts they read from tinhat.com on facebook) to get the vaccine, and if we can convince them to do their part, we could be back to normal very soon.

But the key word today is confidence. We’re seeing distributors schedule films left and right because they have confidence that the theaters will be open and functioning, and they have confidence that movie goers will show up. However, I don’t think we would be in this confident situation without two little words….. Warner Brothers. I know that statement is a little bit of a shock to a lot of you, since during December I released my inner Elizabeth Kubler-Ross in these emails, with most of it centered around Warner Brothers decision to put all their 2021 slate on HBO Max day and date with Theatrical. But unless Warner’s had backstopped their releases with the platform distribution, and they would have done what the rest of the industry did (sell off the dogs to streaming and hold the gems back until we were back open), what would be open right now? And there’s the issue; if WB had pulled WW84 (and you can form your own opinion on the Dog/Gem question here) from Christmas, would AMC, Cinemark and a lot of the regional circuits have joined Regal and decided to lose less money by staying closed? If that had happened, we would be stuck in a quagmire of confidence. It might appear that releasing a movie was viable, but our business is so ‘chicken and egg’, the exhibitors would not open until there was product and the studios wouldn’t schedule a release date until the theaters were open. And adding to the problem, distributors need lead time to market a film and activate audiences, so even though theaters might be reopening now, we wouldn’t see product for weeks.

But because WB did something out of the box, we’re moving forward. Of course no one should say the two lane distribution strategy is here to stay, it’s good for now (and it’s worked much better than anyone thought it would) but once consumers aren’t so stir crazy I can’t say it will work in the future, but who knows. The back half and especially the 4th quarter of this year should be a better look at what the market wants. And the ‘rollout’ of the idea wasn’t the prettiest thing in the world; although all the high green light back end payouts to blindsided talent might have had a positive effect on the bottom line for a couple of agencies. If so, then one more way WB got us closer to normal, even by just fucking up.

Anyway, with all the dependability and efficacy of the Dodgers bullpen, here’s some thoughts about the weekend box office.

Mortal Kombat - By releasing the first 7 minutes of the film last week, and that footage promised a much better movie and (to a certain extent) a much better theatrical experience than it delivered, WB had a terrific weekend last week. They might be seeing the downside of that promise today, the movie is way down today, a decent amount more than you would see on a film of this genre that doesn’t play great. Who knows if that’s the dual release strategy or the movie, but these video game IPs have a flaky audience in general, so it’s more than likely a little of all three. As I talk to my civilian friends (I call them my personal focus group), this is the one film that didn’t seem to play better in theaters than it played on the app. Kong, Judas and Tom & Jerry all seemed to play better in theaters. Of course the exception was The Little Things, mostly because Rami Malek playing a normal human being on a big screen is way too jarring.

*Demon Slayer *- In contrast to Mortal Kombat this film had spectacular exit polls, but isn’t holding a whole lot better, it’s way down today. The audience for this film is super specific, so I doubt we’ll see any sort of stability after the first week drop.

Separation - This horror film from the fighting Ortenbergs over at Open Road followed the standard Covid release plan, a careful spend on a weekend with very little (new) competition. It should end up around the same place we’ve seen these land, in the $1.5 to $2 million range.

Limbo - This refugee drama from Focus opened on 200 screens and is benefitting from the coastal markets being up and humming, they are at the top of the gross list. But the grosses fall off very quickly once you get away from the better upscale theaters so this shouldn’t add up to much of a gross.